Thread by @biancoresearch

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Get ready for BOOMING March CPI, as I explain in this 🧵, it could be something rarely seen in the last 70 years.

Here is the last 70 years of monthly CPI. It is rare for CPI to gain at least 1% in a month. I noted the story behind in many of these gains.

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All spikes >1% occurred with a spike in food or energy.

Sept 2005, Hurricane Katrina broke energy infrastructure.

As the chart below show, in the 16 days around Katrina, gasoline prices leapt 46 cents.

But note the current hike in gasoline is 80 cents, through yesterday.

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That 46-cent spike in gas lead a massive 1.4% jump in Sept 2005 CPI. Again, we are working on 80-cent rise.

Back in 2005, it was only gas prices that jump. Now it's all commodities spiking, and we are starting from a base of 0.6% core and 0.8% CPI.

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Again, it is the 12th of the month, so maybe there is a peace deal and prices collapse the rest of the month.

But if they do not, and these prices hold. A 1.4% to 1.8% March CPI is not out of the question.

Should this happen, it would push YoY CPI to over 9%.