1/11

Reading between the lines and it sounds like Shell's trading arm cannot be controlled.

A 🧵to explain.

ft.com/content/9aecf0…
2/11
Shell Monday:

When [Shell] revealed on Monday plans to exit its joint venture in Russia, its chief executive Ben van Beurden said he was shocked by the loss of life in Ukraine, resulting from a “senseless act” of military aggressive, which “threatens European security” ...
3/11

... “Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction,” he said. “We cannot — and we will not — stand by.”

---

Ok Shell made a decision to walk away from Russia.
4/11

But then the story says:

Yet on Friday, Shell’s powerful trading arm bought 725,000 barrels of Urals, Russian flagship crude, from commodity trader Trafigura at a record discount of $28.50 to Brent, the global oil benchmark. ...
5/11

... The trade was the first deal completed in a public trading window run by S&P Global Platts since Russia invaded Ukraine and traders said it would make Shell about $20mn when the oil is put through its refining system and then sold to consumers. ...
6/11

... “I am astonished that Shell lifted this cargo,” said one senior trader.

---

On its face, it looks like Shell's trading arm completely ignored management's decision to exit Russia and bought a cargo of Russia Crude because it meant a quick $20 million profit.
7/11

Shell Mgmt tried to explain this

---

Most traders assumed the oil would be purchased by a Chinese or Indian trader or refiner, not a major international oil company that had just announced plans to pull back from Russia. ...
8/11

... In a statement, Shell, which as well as being a big oil and gas producer is also one of the world’s biggest energy traders, said it was appalled by the events in Ukraine and had stopped most activities involving Russian oil. ...
9/11

... “However, we currently purchase it and other Russian products for some refineries and chemical plants to ensure that we continue the production of essential fuels and products that people and businesses rely on every day.” ...
10/11

... “We will further reduce our use of Russian oil as alternative crudes become available to buy, but this is highly complex as Russian oil plays a significant role in global supply and in the current, tight market there is a relative lack of alternatives.”
11/1

So, Shell was shocked and horrified by what Russia did, and will not do business with them anymore, except when it does via Shell Trading.

And it makes a huge profit, remember it did so to help "everyday people."

You buying any of this?

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Mar 4
*UKRAINE'S KULEBA: RUSSIA FIRING ON ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT

Markets are freaking out that Russia is bombing a nuclear power plant!

10-year yield down 16 basis points in 30 minutes (below)

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picture of the facility
Russian forces are firing on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said, adding that a fire has broken out.

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In 1917 when the Bolsheviks seized power they renounced the debt, known as czar bonds. Over the ensuing decades speculators bought them for a penny or two on the dollar thinking they would hit the lottery and one or a few might pay.

History repeats
Finally in 1997, 80 years later, after the Soviet Union fell, the Russian government made a small payment on some of these bonds, mainly to French bond holders. And the French government taxed most of it away.

nytimes.com/2000/11/19/wor…
Hold that penny or two in cash equivalents (t-bills) over those decades produced a far superior return.
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1/6

Short 🧵on recent market action

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The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) is back into media defined bear market territory. Image
3/6

NASDAQ Composite approaching media defined bear market levels. Image
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1/7

A 🧵on the new Goldman's Fed call of "nine for nine"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/7

First, "nine for nine" is not really that far from what is priced in.

As of Friday's close, the market was pricing in "eight for nine."
3/7

From Jun-04 to Jul-06 the Fed hiked rates 17 times in 17 meetings, from 1.0% to 5.5%. So, 9 for 9 is not unprecedented.

When the Fed was done in 2006, the yield curve inverted, housing prices peaked 2-months later (Case Schiller) and following next year was the GFC.
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1/3

Crypto twitter is standing on their head to convince (themselves?) that the correlation between legacy markets and BTC is broken.

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2/3

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I think it is and the BTC sell-off this weekend, IF IT HOLDS UNTIL LEGACY MARKETS REOPEN, suggests more legacy markets pain coming.
3/3

This is the consequence of institutional adoption of crypto.

Bluntly, tradfi is a bunch of degens wanting number go up and not (yet) exploring DeFi or other aspects of a new financial system.

For the foreseeable future, crypto/BTC is the extreme of the legacy risk curve.
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2/4 Image
3/4
Why do Democrats, who like taxes and want to less fossil fuel consumption to save the planet, want to cut gas taxes?

I can answer it with two charts. ImageImage
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