In 1917 when the Bolsheviks seized power they renounced the debt, known as czar bonds. Over the ensuing decades speculators bought them for a penny or two on the dollar thinking they would hit the lottery and one or a few might pay.

History repeats
Finally in 1997, 80 years later, after the Soviet Union fell, the Russian government made a small payment on some of these bonds, mainly to French bond holders. And the French government taxed most of it away.

nytimes.com/2000/11/19/wor…
Hold that penny or two in cash equivalents (t-bills) over those decades produced a far superior return.
A follow up …

About 20 years ago I bought this Russian bond from a collectibles dealer.

4.5% coupon raised 26m rijkmarks to build the Moscow to Kiev railroad issued in 1909. (How’s that going today?)

It proudly hangs on my wall as artwork, unless Vlad wants to pay me.

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More from @biancoresearch

Mar 4
1/11

Reading between the lines and it sounds like Shell's trading arm cannot be controlled.

A 🧵to explain.

ft.com/content/9aecf0…
2/11
Shell Monday:

When [Shell] revealed on Monday plans to exit its joint venture in Russia, its chief executive Ben van Beurden said he was shocked by the loss of life in Ukraine, resulting from a “senseless act” of military aggressive, which “threatens European security” ...
3/11

... “Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction,” he said. “We cannot — and we will not — stand by.”

---

Ok Shell made a decision to walk away from Russia.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 4
*UKRAINE'S KULEBA: RUSSIA FIRING ON ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT

Markets are freaking out that Russia is bombing a nuclear power plant!

10-year yield down 16 basis points in 30 minutes (below)

ES futures down about 70 handles over the same time period. Image
picture of the facility Image
Russian forces are firing on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said, adding that a fire has broken out.

Earlier, the IAEA confirmed that the Russian military is battling now outside the gates of Europe’s and Ukraine’s biggest nuclear power plant.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 23
1/6

Short 🧵on recent market action

S&P correction is now 12%, largest since spring of 2020 Image
2/6

The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) is back into media defined bear market territory. Image
3/6

NASDAQ Composite approaching media defined bear market levels. Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 20
1/7

A 🧵on the new Goldman's Fed call of "nine for nine"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/7

First, "nine for nine" is not really that far from what is priced in.

As of Friday's close, the market was pricing in "eight for nine."
3/7

From Jun-04 to Jul-06 the Fed hiked rates 17 times in 17 meetings, from 1.0% to 5.5%. So, 9 for 9 is not unprecedented.

When the Fed was done in 2006, the yield curve inverted, housing prices peaked 2-months later (Case Schiller) and following next year was the GFC.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 20
1/3

Crypto twitter is standing on their head to convince (themselves?) that the correlation between legacy markets and BTC is broken.

Instead, as these two charts shows, the correlation has INCREASED to a new all-time high (over the last 2-months, or 8-weeks).
2/3

And legacy market people show restrain from gloating. As the title of one chart above asks, is BTC a 24/7 VIX? (h/t @jdorman81)

I think it is and the BTC sell-off this weekend, IF IT HOLDS UNTIL LEGACY MARKETS REOPEN, suggests more legacy markets pain coming.
3/3

This is the consequence of institutional adoption of crypto.

Bluntly, tradfi is a bunch of degens wanting number go up and not (yet) exploring DeFi or other aspects of a new financial system.

For the foreseeable future, crypto/BTC is the extreme of the legacy risk curve.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 15
2/4 Image
3/4
Why do Democrats, who like taxes and want to less fossil fuel consumption to save the planet, want to cut gas taxes?

I can answer it with two charts. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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