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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
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Mar 15 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 15) 👇🧵

Frontlines remain largely steady:

-stalled 🇷🇺 advance in North.
-Cont. 🇷🇺 slow advance in South/East.
- Again,🇷🇺 made most progress in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts
- 🇺🇦 defenses remain intact.

map: @War_Mapper Image
Steady progress in the South north of Dnpr:
-further 🇷🇺 advances in direction of Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol / Zaporizhzhia.
- 🇷🇺continued offensives towards Kryvyi Rih
-further 🇷🇺 advances around Mykolaiv (city needs to fall/be fully encircled before push on Odessa).
Continued shelling of shelling of Mykolaiv/Mariupol in South and Chenihi/Kharkiv in North/Northeast; 🇷🇺 forces are still attempting to encircle Chernihiv. (video: shelling of Kharkiv over night.)
🇷🇺 main objective remains Kyiv.

Encirclement/capture of Chernihiv, Mariupol, Mykolaiv, Sumy & Kharkiv are 🇷🇺secondary objectives. (🇷🇺 does not have enough forces to take all cities in urban combat; encirclement/shelling to compel 🇺🇦 to negotiate is likelier opt.) Map: @JominiW Image
There have only been limited 🇷🇺attacks northwest of Kyiv; no offensive operations reportedly east of the city.

🇷🇺 forces are increasingly relying on mass fires to break Ukrainian resistance in the cities.

🇷🇺 forces continue to make (faster) gains in the Donbas region. This is partially the result of some Ukrainian forces withdrawing to avoid encirclement.
Losses on both sides are accumulating.

This 🧵 by @WarintheFuture on the implications of Russians losses and Russia's new campaign objectives is quite interesting.

I would agree with this.

This piece on 🇷🇺 logistics is also worthwhile your time.

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More from @HoansSolo

Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 17
(Very) short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 17) 👇🧵

Limited/stalled🇷🇺 progress:

-no noticeable🇷🇺 advances in North to encircle Kyiv.
-Cont. 🇷🇺 slow advances in South/East

-🇺🇦 reportedly launched various counter-attacks

map: @War_Mapper Image
No noticeable changes around Kyiv.

🇷🇺 forces reportedly launched a number of unsuccessful attacks northwest of Kyiv but were repulsed.
The pictures below still hold. 👇
Shelling of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv in North/Northeast continues; 🇷🇺 forces reportedly failed in their attempt to encircle Kharkiv from the east. No offensive operations around Sumy or Chernihiv. 🇷🇺 forces are reportedly regrouping and getting resupplied in these areas.
Read 6 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 16
“[T]he 2-day bat­tle of Voz­ne­sensk, de­tails of which are only now emerg­ing, turned de­ci­sively against the Rus­sians.” Great reporting by @yarotrof 👇wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
“Judg­ing from the de­stroyed and aban­doned ar­mor, Ukrain­ian forces, which com­prised lo­cal vol­un­teers and the pro­fes­sional mil­i­tary, elim­i­nated most of a Russ­ian bat­tal­ion tac­ti­cal group on March 2 and 3.”
“We didn’t have a sin­gle tank against them, just rocket-pro­pelled grenades, Javelin mis­siles and the help of ar­tillery,” said Vadym Dom­brovsky, com­man­der of the Ukrain­ian spe­cial-forces re­con­nais­sance group in the area and a Voz­ne­sensk res­i­dent. “
Read 6 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 16
Rufe nach Spezialisierung des Bundesheeres auf einige wenige Waffengattungen, sowie die komplette Abschaffung des Kampfes der verbundenen Waffen, entbehren jeder militärischen & geopolitischen Logik egal ob Mitglied der NATO oder EU-Beistandspflicht.
Spezialisierung in einem Militärbündnis macht nur Sinn wenn grundlegende militärische Fähigkeiten erhalten bleiben, die in 🇦🇹aber auch in 🇩🇪 in den letzten 30 Jahren grob vernachlässigt wurden. Das lernte auch die NATO im letzten Jahrzehnt.
Die Zukunft der Kriegsführung liegt im Kampf der verbundenen Waffen oberhalb und unterhalb des offenen Konfliktspektrums. Dies wird durch emergente Technologien (z.b. KI, Cyber etc.) nur verstärkt. Streitkräfte müssen zu multi-dimensionalen Operationen fähig sein.
Read 7 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 16
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 16) 👇🧵

Limited🇷🇺 progress:

-slow 🇷🇺 advances in North to encircle Kyiv.
-Cont. 🇷🇺 slow but steady advances in South/East (especially in Donetsk Oblast

- 🇺🇦 defenses remain intact; some counterattacks
succeeded. Image
Situation around Kyiv: "We estimate Russian forces are still about 15-20km to the northwest and about 20-30km to the east. Ukrainians hold Brovary and are still defending Kyiv." (per U.S. DoD briefer)

Kyiv is not (yet) besieged.

h/t @DanLamothe
maps: @HN_Schlottman ImageImage
🇷🇺 made progress in the South north of Dnpr:
-cont. 🇷🇺 advances in direction of Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol / Zaporizhzhia.
- 🇷🇺cont. offensives towards Kryvyi Rih
-conflicting reports about 🇷🇺 advances around Mykolaiv (city needs to fall/be fully encircled before push on Odessa).
Read 10 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 14
Any indicators out there how effective 🇺🇦AN/TPQ-36 class radars have been for counter-battery fire missions against 🇷🇺 systems or whether they are still in service?
The counter-battery radars listed below presumably are AN/TPQ-36 and/or AN/TPQ-48 radar systems.

List of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine to date 👇

h/t @alexbward Image
There is at least some circumstantial evidence that these systems have been used effectively by Ukraine.

Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 14
(Very) short summary military situation in Ukraine (March 14) 👇🧵

Frontlines remain largely unchanged:
-stalled 🇷🇺 advance in North.
-🇷🇺 advance in South/East appears slow.
- 🇷🇺 made most progress in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts
- 🇺🇦 defenses remain intact.

map: @War_Mapper
Mil. situation in Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts remains most tense for 🇺🇦 forces from an operational perspective.

Russian forces are reportedly pushing towards Vuhledar north of Mariupol & are attempting to encircle Severdonetsk.

This still holds 👇

Heavy shelling of Mykolaiv in South and Kharkiv in Northeast continues; push toward Odessa likely; 🇷🇺 forces are still attempting to encircle Chernihiv.
Read 5 tweets

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