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Mar 14 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 2 min read
(Very) short summary military situation in Ukraine (March 14) πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅

Frontlines remain largely unchanged:
-stalled πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advance in North.
-πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advance in South/East appears slow.
- πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί made most progress in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts
- πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ defenses remain intact.

map: @War_Mapper
Mil. situation in Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts remains most tense for πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ forces from an operational perspective.

Russian forces are reportedly pushing towards Vuhledar north of Mariupol & are attempting to encircle Severdonetsk.

This still holds πŸ‘‡

Heavy shelling of Mykolaiv in South and Kharkiv in Northeast continues; push toward Odessa likely; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces are still attempting to encircle Chernihiv.
35 military personnel died plus 130 were injured as a result of Russian air strikes on the Yavoriv training center outside Lviv over the weekend.
This is a good thread onπŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces' ability to disrupt western supply lines.

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More from @HoansSolo

Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 16
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 16) πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅

LimitedπŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί progress:

-slow πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advances in North to encircle Kyiv.
-Cont. πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί slow but steady advances in South/East (especially in Donetsk Oblast

- πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ defenses remain intact; some counterattacks
succeeded. Image
Situation around Kyiv: "We estimate Russian forces are still about 15-20km to the northwest and about 20-30km to the east. Ukrainians hold Brovary and are still defending Kyiv." (per U.S. DoD briefer)

Kyiv is not (yet) besieged.

h/t @DanLamothe
maps: @HN_Schlottman ImageImage
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί made progress in the South north of Dnpr:
-cont. πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advances in direction of Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol / Zaporizhzhia.
- πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ίcont. offensives towards Kryvyi Rih
-conflicting reports about πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advances around Mykolaiv (city needs to fall/be fully encircled before push on Odessa).
Read 8 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 15
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 15) πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅

Frontlines remain largely steady:

-stalled πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advance in North.
-Cont. πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί slow advance in South/East.
- Again,πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί made most progress in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts
- πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ defenses remain intact.

map: @War_Mapper Image
Steady progress in the South north of Dnpr:
-further πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advances in direction of Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol / Zaporizhzhia.
- πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ίcontinued offensives towards Kryvyi Rih
-further πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advances around Mykolaiv (city needs to fall/be fully encircled before push on Odessa).
Continued shelling of shelling of Mykolaiv/Mariupol in South and Chenihi/Kharkiv in North/Northeast; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces are still attempting to encircle Chernihiv. (video: shelling of Kharkiv over night.)
Read 9 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 13
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 13) πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅

Situation in North around Kyiv remains relatively stable with limited πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί progress.

Attention needs to be paid to South and East were πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ forces are increasingly in danger of getting cut off.

(map: @War_Mapper)
Pay attention to red arrows in South (Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia + Wolnowacha) and East (Losowa and Barwenkowo) in the map above. From day 1 of the war potential encirclement/cut off of πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ forces east of Dnpr was a real danger.
Exact strength/progress of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί advances is unclear. 2 major questions. 1: can Russian forces maintain momentum and succeed without large follow-on forces? 2: can πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ fight delaying actions and retreat in orderly manner or withdraw to urban centers to attrite πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces from there?
Read 11 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 12
(Very) short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 12) πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅

No major frontline changes over last 24hrs.

πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί main objective remains Kyiv.

Encirclement/capture of Chernihiv, Mariupol, Mykolaiv, Sumy & Kharkiv still πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ίsecondary objectives.
(map:@JominiW)
Russian forces are pushing hard to reach outskirts of Kyiv and encircle the city; attempts to seal off Chernihiv failed; Kharkiv getting shelled; some Russian troops reportedly in Mariupol; urban combat at outskirts of Sumy; similar attempt in Mykolaiv repulsed.
This map from March 10 by @HN_Schlottman does a good job highlighting how overstretched Russian forces in Ukraine are. 1 BTG = 700-~900 personnel plus ~40-50 vehicles. It also highlights the difficult supply situation.
Read 5 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 11
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 11) πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅

Conflicting reports about πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί progress or lack thereof: πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces now ~40 km to the east of Kyiv ; around Hostomel Airport they have advanced ~5km from city limits (per US DoD); otherwise no advances in North.
Main πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ίmilitary objective remains Kyiv.

The previously-stalled Russian military convoy (or rather group of convoys) north of Kyiv has reportedly split up and advanced (from~ 20 km outside the city center to ~15 km).

Chernihiv has reportedly now been isolated; a Russian attack from the North repulsed, however; a πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ counter-attack reportedly succeeded. (map: @Militarylandnet)
Read 21 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 10
My colleagues at the πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ήmilitary academy’s R&D department under Col. M. Reisner did a quick analysis of this action. 1st time we saw a πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊBTG at (least in part) operating how it is supposed to at the tactical level (execution is another matter).
Likely that this πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ίunit is from the 36th or 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA). Attack shows that the Russians are are mainly attacking along main lines of communication (giving them an attack speed of ~10 to 30 km/h.)
Russian van guard is permanently delayed by Ukrainian artillery (2S9), rocket artillery (BM-21, BM-27) and small mixed πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ mechanized elements (T64, BRDM, BMP)
Read 4 tweets

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