Over the past 24 hours, there's been a clear uptick in Russian strikes against Kyiv itself - most being directed at civilian areas. I think the past 24 hour saw the highest number of strikes in Kyiv since the invasion began.
Two residential towers were hit in #Kyiv's Sviatoshynskyi, a house in the Osokorky, and another residential building in the Podilskyi this morning in strikes that occured between 4 and 6 am. At least two people were killed.
The Lukyanivska station was also damaged by one of the blasts. as Russia struck Kyiv multiple times this morning
This is from the Podilskyi district in #Kyiv. Again, Russian strikes are very precise: They hit their intended civilian targets.
🚩Today, the Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are going to Kyiv to meet with President Zelensky and PM Shmyhal, as representatives of the European Council.
I am not discounting that the attacks this morning in Kyiv are tied to this visit.
Another city destroyed by Russian strikes: Okhtyrka has been under contant Russian bombardment. Drone footage show large scale destruction.
Another view of the aftermath of Russian strikes in Kyiv (Lukianivska Station)
Kyiv (same area)
A Russian Major General was killed in Mariupol
Ukrainian land forces released this image showing the aftermath of an attack by the 24th Mechanized Brigades, carried out in the Luhansk region. Three T-72s and one BMP-3 said to be destroyed
Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russia has taken full control of the Kherson region.
(My understanding was that there were still pockets of resistance south of Kryvyi Rih, including in the Kherson region)
The Ukrainian military claims to have foiled another attempt by Russian forces to breach the defensive line along the Irpin river north of Kyiv, this time in the direction of Huta Mezhyhirska and Lyutizh
That's what constant bombardment looks like: Shells continue to fall in Kharkiv, as emergency services are still pulling out people from a residential building hit during a previous Russian attack.
🚩Lukashenko claims that two days ago a Tochka-U ballistic missile was launched from the territory of Ukraine in the direction of #Belarus. He claims the missile was intercepted.
Lukashenko says Belarus does not plan to get involved in the Russian "special operation" (i.e. invasion) in #Ukraine.
[More of those "attacks" could be used to build a "case" for a Belarusian intervention, with Lukashenko claiming that he was "forced" to partcipate]
Two Russian T-80 tanks were captured by the Ukrainian military near Kharkiv (picture by Ukrainian journalist by Yuri Butusov). The Russian operation to demilitarize Ukraine is going well.
🚩The Mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko announced a 35-hour-long curfew in #Kyiv from today at 20:00 to 07:00 on March 17 as the city is facing a "dangerous moment
Movement will be prohibited with the exception of those having a special pass, and those going to shelters.
Lithuanian FM also decided to drop by Ukraine today
As of now, Gantz and the opposition do not have the votes necessary to pass such a bill, unless there are defections within Netanyahu's own coalition. The question is whether this is an effort to encourage such defections or Gantz does have an indication that there are already defectors? It might also be a gamble, with no real plan.
As a reminder, Gantz has given Netanyahu a deadline (until June 8) to respond to six key demands. Netanyahu rejected the ultimatum moments after it was issued, and there were voices inside Gantz's own party who called to simply leave the government even ahead of the deadline
Advancing a bill to dissolve the Knesset would suggest Gantz is on his way out of the government.
Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot).
In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.
In this one, #Hamas militants enter a house, they hear a phone ring and try to find people inside the house.
They shoot upstairs, then one of the militants shouts "mother" trying to mimic a child, possibly to attract civilians hiding in the house.
#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.
Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:
1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.
2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).
3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.
4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.
5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.
In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way.
BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).
I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.
Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.
Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.
That's true and a good point. Collection in itself isn't "facts", and analysis vets and reshapes collected intel, which makes the mistake I mentioned even more likely to happen.
(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders.
I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.
On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.
Additional pictures of a young woman shot in her bedroom
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.
Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores.