Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 15 4 tweets 1 min read
An example of short-term thinking in the free world, focusing only on what happens NOW instead of planning for next year & the next generation. Had a policy of "dictatorship replacement" started 8 years ago, think of how different things would be now. Stop panicking and plan.
Instead of institutional consistency and strategy, the US & EU look only at the next poll. Any solution that won't pay immediate dividends on social media or by the next election is discarded. Germany discarding its nuclear plants for Russian gas, etc.
This frequently fails despite the massive power advantage the West has because dictatorships can move quickly. Putin doesn't care about a Congress or public opinion. Democracies must debate, process, pass laws.
But when there is no consistency or continuity even on the biggest issues, Putin and the rest can hope to wait out any difficulties, playing one side against the other and hoping for another reset or another Trump.

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More from @Kasparov63

Mar 17
After the USSR fell, there was no accounting for the Soviet horrors committed, no lustration or truth commissions. Do not prepare only for The Hague war crime trials of Putin's officials after this war, but for every Russian to know these stories.
Despite being utterly defeated in the Cold War & the myth of Russian humiliation popularized by Putin & his propagandists, Russia was invited to join the civilized world, aided and with its pride as a once-great power indulged. It was a huge mistake, the original sin.
Instead of deprogramming generations of Russians and ripping out the security service structure root and branch, it was allowed to lurk in the shadows until Putin & his backers seized their chance. It cannot happen again.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 16
More mixed signals from the Biden admin. Are they trying to confuse Putin or are they confused themselves? Blinken says sanctions not permanent. Russia still active in Iran deal. Then Biden calls Putin a war criminal. Action needed, not words.
My questions: What about Crimea & Donbas? What if Putin signs the papers but doesn't really leave, as in Georgia? What about reparations to Ukraine? Why make deals with a war criminal you know you cannot trust?
Is the US is declining to send its best weapons to Ukraine immediately in order to avoid the total destruction of Putin's forces in Ukraine, which would jeopardize the White House's higher priority of the Iran deal? If not, what is the reason?
Read 5 tweets
Mar 16
This is it. All the things America still says it stands for–independence, democracy, self-determination–Ukraine is fighting to survive to defend them against a dictator who wants to destroy them everywhere.
The UN has become a platform for dictators. The EU & NATO stand by. As Zelensky says, a coalition of democracies is needed, as John McCain and I proposed many years ago. Putin's war on Ukraine is the start of a new global order, but it must not be the one he wants.
Ukraine is the hot war on the front line of this war on values Zelensky talks about. But it is happening all over the world. The free world forgot how to fight, how to care, thought it didn't need to anymore. It was wrong and it must remember.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 15
Putin's war on Ukraine will either be the catalyst that revives the spirit & credibility of NATO or the end of the global order. As the Korean War shaped NATO after its birth under Harry Truman's vision of containing Communism, this is democracy vs authoritarianism. 1/13
Retreating from Putin to hide behind a piece of paper is too familiar to Ukrainians . The 1994 Budapest Memorandum promised Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for its nuclear arsenal. USA & UK rushed to deny it was a guarantee when Putin invaded in 2014. 2/13
As with NATO today, lack of contractual obligation does not equal prohibition nor a lack of moral and strategic necessity. It's about political will and the choices of leaders. The refusal to defend Ukraine in 2014 led directly to Putin's escalation now. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Mar 13
Say you will not listen to me because I have always hated Putin, but if you will not listen to Zelenskyy, it's your own conscience you are silencing. This is a great test for us all, not only Ukraine, and right now we are failing it.
The problem is not Russian forces creating conditions for the West that prevent them from intervening to save Ukraine. It's Western leaders looking for excuses not to stand up to Putin, as they have since 2008.
Western leaders today are weathervanes, not compasses. They follow will of the people, who are affluent & complacent, with no taste for sacrifice or risk. This is only sustainable in an environment with no predators. E.g. the brief moment after the Cold War ended.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 12
Indeed. Zelensky, under siege and outgunned, channels Churchill. Biden, in command of the most powerful military in the history of the world, channels Chamberlain. Why this perverse urge to take things off the table?
Biden told Putin, "We shall NOT fight on the beaches, we shall NOT fight on the landing grounds, we shall NOT fight in the fields..." That Putin can reduce Ukraine to dust by any means and boxing himself in for no reason. Madness.
This isn't new. We know what happens when hostile dictators are appeased. Chamberlain didn't know. We are repeating the mistake not only from 1938, but from 2008 & 2014 with Putin.
Read 4 tweets

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