Thread by @billroggio

1) @nytimes most recent map illustrates many of the points made in yesterday's thread. However I think it understates Russian advances in the southeast. Polohy and the area around it is under Russian control.

2) Here is yesterday's update. I highlighted the importance of Izium and Dnipro. Add Kryvyi Rih to that list, which the Russians are pushing towards. If the Russians have success in Kryvyi Rih, it will open the back door to Dnipro and Zaporizhzha.

https://twitter.com/billroggio/status/1503779887605338113

3) The @nytimes map shows how precarious the situation is in the northern part of the east. Russian troops have bypassed Kharkiv and are pushing into Izium, where there is fighting inside the town.

4) Note that CNN reported yesterday, based on statement from the the Mayor of Izium, that "the road towards Kharkiv is controlled by Russian occupiers."
Again, Ukrainian troops holding defensive positions on the Donbas line are in danger of being enveloped.

5) I've made this point before. Kiev is no doubt a strategic objective of the Russians. But it isn't the only strategic objective. Taking eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea / Sea of Azov coastal areas is also of high importance to the Russians.

6) The Russian assault of Kiev is tying up a large number of Ukrainian troops, which is enabling Russian operations on the other fronts.

7) I've maintained from the beginning that the Russians didn't cobble together its offensive after the opening drive Hail Mary attack on Kiev failed. This operation was planned well before the Kiev gambit & executed in conjunction. The Russians have a game plan.

8) The Russian execution of its game plan is certainly questionable, in large part due to the fierce fighting spirit of the Ukrainians and poor Russian tactics, maintenance & logistics. But a look at the map shows that while it is messy, it is working.

9) Again, you can achieve strategic success while suffering tactical failures.

10) Conversely, you can be tactically brilliant and yet suffer strategic defeat. See Hannibal in the Second Punic War. Hannibal, in my estimation, is most brilliant general in history; Cannae and Lake Trasimene were astonishing victories. And yet Carthage lost the war.

11) There is nothing brilliant about the Russian battle plan. The Russians are wielding their army like a blunt object, pointing their army groups at key strategic locations. A simple battleplan combined with the willingness to use brute force and take casualties can work.