Year-to-date the long bond has corrected 14.46% through March 14. This is tracking its worst start in history.
3/4
The MOVE Index is a broad measure of the bond market’s implied volatility. It has risen to levels not seen since March 2020 and the second-highest reading in the last 13 years.
4/4
Mkts are dishing out pain. The stock market is in bear market territory (NASDAQ and RTY)
Commodities mkts are wild and top traders are scrambling to meet margin calls
And the bond market, everyone’s favorite place to hide, is punishing with the worst losses in history.
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Many of these countries have very strict or zero COVID policies. And they are "the beginning of the supply chain." So expect even more supply chain problems. Read, more inflation.
A 🧵to detail
2/4
Right now the worst Asian countries are probably Vietnam, South Korea, and even New Zealand.
3/4
In China, COVID surged in Hong Kong but looks like it peaked. But in China, it is a 2-year high and rising (China's level is disputed, but many believe the trend is correct).
China "took over" HK in 2020 and has free movement to the mainland.
Jeff's comments are spot on and deserve expansion in a 🧵
It is part of a disturbing trend over the last few months of financial institutions and Govts "just taking" (stealing) other people's money in broad daylight. @CliffordAsness@jdorman81
Canada's emergencies act allowed Ottawa to freeze the accounts (steal) the money of protesting truckers without any due process.
3/8
Also, the emergencies act created "retroactive laws" (nice Orwellian term) to say when you donated to the truckers it was legal, but now it is not so you are retroactively in violation of the law so Canada can freeze (steal) your money without due process.
A 🧵on the LME situation and why it should bother anyone in mkts.
A blatant disregard for the rules, to protect one Chinese Tycoon against the market.
This is far worse than GameStop.
I tried to keep this as simple as possible. Pls correct in the replies.
2/8
Tsingshan is China’s largest nickel producer. $40B in revenues
It is run by its founder, Xiang Guangda. His moniker is “big shot.” Take that to mean he has a huge ego.
He shorted 100,00 tons of Nickel, yes, that’s a huge amount.
3/8
He was counseled to reign in this massive short. But he’s “big shot” and runs Tsingshen, so he “knows better.”
In retrospect, this position was causing mkt imbalances. This imbalance often shows up when all mkts are stressed, like they were/are with Russia invading Ukraine.
When [Shell] revealed on Monday plans to exit its joint venture in Russia, its chief executive Ben van Beurden said he was shocked by the loss of life in Ukraine, resulting from a “senseless act” of military aggressive, which “threatens European security” ...
3/11
... “Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction,” he said. “We cannot — and we will not — stand by.”
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Ok Shell made a decision to walk away from Russia.