Frank Taber Profile picture
Mar 16 10 tweets 3 min read
1/

Can $FB ride the next trend of Human Machine Interface (HMI) with Virtual & Augmented Reality?

Significant value creation comes from the company that dominates HMI. It’s why $AAPL has become of the best businesses in the world.
2/

Human Machine Interface is the hardware or software through which an operator interacts with a controller.

A HMI can range from a physical control panel with buttons and indicator lights to an industrial PC with a color graphics display running dedicated HMI software.
3/

Since the digital revolution, we have seen many shifts in HMI trends.

The late 20th century consisted of desktop computers that gradually became smaller & faster. It changed the workplace dramatically.
4/

In the early 21st century the HMI trend shifted towards laptop computers, tablets and mobile phones.

HMI’s became a more regular part of day to day life. It was a lot more accessible.

Thanks to companies like $FB it also became a lot more social.
5/

The next logical progression for HMI seems to be VR & AR. It’s pretty undeniable at this point.

$FB have made a significant bet on this being true. Shareholders need to be believers in VR/AR becoming the next mobile phone or computer.
6/

If we speculate further into the future, some people would suggest the next trend of HMI beyond VR/AR could be a direct computer to brain interface.

Elon might be one step ahead of Zuck with #Neuralink

But for now let’s stick with VR/AR.
7/

In my mind, the question isn’t if VR/AR is the next trend of HMI. That probability is fairly high.

The question for $FB shareholders is how is Meta going to be the dominant player? And how much capital is at risk to make that happen?
8/

$GOOGL, $AAPL, $MSFT, $TCEHY and almost every other large tech company is aware of this trend towards VR/AR and is throwing capital towards it.

But I think it’s fair to say $FB has prioritised and put more capital towards VR/AR than anyone else.
9/

In short, if $FB can be what $AAPL has been with smart phones for VR/AR, than the current valuation would be incredibly cheap.

I’ll write about this more in my next newsletter write-up on $FB out in two weeks. Sign up for FREE at:

Seekingvalue.substack.com
10/

Also a big shout to @fallacyalarm for his $FB write-up covering this concept. Go and check it out and subscribe.

fallacyalarm.substack.com/p/from-generat…

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More from @frankinvesting

Mar 18
1/

$FB FY21 free cash flow is $39.1 billion. Which is likely to decrease ~30% after a significant increase in capex for FY22.

The market has more than priced this in over the past 3-4 months with the share price down 38% YTD.
2/

More importantly though is what $FB FCF looks like 3-5years from now.

@theTIKR estimates have FY26 FCF for Meta at $72 billion, which is a 13.1% CAGR, including a 31% decrease in FY22. Image
3/

$FB current EV/FCF multiple is 13.6x which is arguably cheap on a relative and absolute basis.

Meta is valued at ~7.5x FY26 FCF if the estimates above are accurate.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 14
Thread/

Warren Buffett on special situations and activist investing.

Before Buffett became a long-term GARP investor, he was more focused on special sits, illiquid, small-cap, deep value positions. He was even interested in companies he could take control of.
1/

Interestingly, Buffett's best returns came during the late 50's to 60's when he had a much different approach to investing.

This thread is a series of quotes from Buffett's 1961 partnership letter where he describes some of the opportunities he is looking for at the time.
2/

"Our second category of investments consists of 'work-outs.' These are securities whose financial results depend on corporate action rather than supply and demand factors created by buyers and sellers of securities".
Read 12 tweets
Feb 25
Thread/

$BABA Q3 earnings report.

Alibaba is now down 67% from the all-time high in October 2020.

After increased competition, declining margins and regulatory pressures, a pullback in price is certainly justified.

But 67% seems excessive…
1/

Throughout FY21, $BABA increased their Annual Active Consumers +206m, a 19% increase. Alibaba now has 1.28bn consumers globally.

That total number and growth alone makes a 67% share price decline seem insane. But there is some legitimacy to it.
2/

Alibaba Cloud now services 25 regions globally.

$BABA projected a ~USD$160bn cloud market by 2025. Their current market share in China is ~37%.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 21
Thread/

Nick Sleep & Qais Zakaria managed the Nomad Investment Partnership for 12yrs from 2001-2013.

During that time they delivered 921% returns vs. 117% from the MSCI world index.

Their letters to shareholders have become one of the best resources available to investors.
1/

Nick Sleep has an endless amount of valuable lessons in his letters. I'd suggest any investor who hasn't read the letters to prioritise it.

Nick Sleep has become famous in the investing world for a lot of reasons, but most notable is his early investment in $AMZN and $COST
2/

Is this thread, I'm going to share Nick Sleep's original thesis on $COST in 2004.

He invested in Costco in 2002, but wrote extensively about the company in 2004. He never sold his shares. Since purchasing, Costco's share price has appreciated ~1400%.
Read 17 tweets
Feb 20
Thread/

What would you pay (market value) for this company? I’ll reveal the company later in the thread.

- Strong network effects, pricing power & a long runway for growth.

- Powerful IP that could be monetised in many different ways…
1/

- Loyal user base/fans. High retention rate and improving.

- $1.3 billion in sales, $606 million EBITDA. 47% EBITDA margins in FY21.

- FY21 revenue growth of 42% YoY.

- EBITDA has doubled over the past two years. ~41.5% CAGR….
2/

I’ll continue the thread after this tweet, but comment your guess below.

With limited information provided, I’d suggest any high quality US company with 47% EBITDA margins and a 41.5% CAGR would earn at least a 20x EBITDA multiple, probably much higher.

Reveal next tweet.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 17
1/

Rob Vinall’s recent purchase of $CVNA and the huge drawdown of the share price has made me finally look into the business that every growth investor has been raving about for years now.

Carvana’s share price is down ~60% from their all-time high.
2/

Revenues for Carvana have grown at a ~112% CAGR over the past 5 years. Which is a pretty insane number, it’s hard to even comprehend.

The revenue growth is obviously unsustainable, but there is still a long runway for growth for $CVNA
3/

Currently only 1% of used car sales in the US are e-commerce sales. JP Morgan forecast that number to increase to 12% by 2030.

$CVNA have around 40% market share of e-commerce used car sales. If* they maintain that market share we could see >30% sales CAGR until 2030.
Read 8 tweets

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