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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
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Mar 16 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Because we do not have enough news today ...

*STRONG EARTHQUAKE SHAKES BUILDINGS IN CENTRAL TOKYO
JAPAN TSUNAMI WARNING ISSUED: NHK

Fukushima nuclear disaster was trigger by a March 11, 2011 earthquake
Today is five days past that anniversary date.
*M7.3 QUAKE HITS OFF FUKUSHIMA, TSUNAMI ADVISORY ISSUED: NHK

The March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami was 9.0 to 9.1 and killed 15,899 caused $360B in damage and Fukushima nuclear plant was the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5…
More supply chain disruptions ... because we don't have enough disruptions happening now?

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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 18
1/5
We have argued the yield curve inverts from the "inside out."

*First is the 10y/7y (cyan). This inverted a few days ago.
* Then 10-y/5y (red), now at 0.
* Next is the 10-y/3y (orange), also at 0. Image
2/5
This continues until the 30y/FF inverts and can take several months.

As the next chart shows, once the 10y/5y yield curve inverts, the other curves typically follow suit.

With the 10y/5y curve at 0, this indicator is on the verge of signaling a full inversion is coming. Image
3/5
And once the 10-year to 3-month yield curve inverts for at least 10 consecutive days, it has a perfect track record in forecasting recession back to the 1960s (the 1998 inversion was only three separate days). Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 15
1/4
While everyone focuses on the stock market, their is a tremendous amount of pain in the bond market.

The 30-year Treasury’s total return index is suffering its worst drawdown in history as it is now down 31.4% since its March 9, 2020 peak.

@ConvexityMaven @FedGuy12
2/4
Year-to-date the long bond has corrected 14.46% through March 14. This is tracking its worst start in history.
3/4
The MOVE Index is a broad measure of the bond market’s implied volatility. It has risen to levels not seen since March 2020 and the second-highest reading in the last 13 years.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 13
1/4
I hate to say it, but COVID is not quite over.

It is raging in Asia/China.

Many of these countries have very strict or zero COVID policies. And they are "the beginning of the supply chain." So expect even more supply chain problems. Read, more inflation.

A 🧵to detail
2/4
Right now the worst Asian countries are probably Vietnam, South Korea, and even New Zealand.
3/4
In China, COVID surged in Hong Kong but looks like it peaked. But in China, it is a 2-year high and rising (China's level is disputed, but many believe the trend is correct).

China "took over" HK in 2020 and has free movement to the mainland.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 12
1/4
Get ready for BOOMING March CPI, as I explain in this 🧵, it could be something rarely seen in the last 70 years.

Here is the last 70 years of monthly CPI. It is rare for CPI to gain at least 1% in a month. I noted the story behind in many of these gains.
2/4
All spikes >1% occurred with a spike in food or energy.

Sept 2005, Hurricane Katrina broke energy infrastructure.

As the chart below show, in the 16 days around Katrina, gasoline prices leapt 46 cents.

But note the current hike in gasoline is 80 cents, through yesterday.
3/4
That 46-cent spike in gas lead a massive 1.4% jump in Sept 2005 CPI. Again, we are working on 80-cent rise.

Back in 2005, it was only gas prices that jump. Now it's all commodities spiking, and we are starting from a base of 0.6% core and 0.8% CPI.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 11
1/8
Jeff's comments are spot on and deserve expansion in a 🧵

It is part of a disturbing trend over the last few months of financial institutions and Govts "just taking" (stealing) other people's money in broad daylight.
@CliffordAsness @jdorman81

2/8
Canada's emergencies act allowed Ottawa to freeze the accounts (steal) the money of protesting truckers without any due process.
3/8
Also, the emergencies act created "retroactive laws" (nice Orwellian term) to say when you donated to the truckers it was legal, but now it is not so you are retroactively in violation of the law so Canada can freeze (steal) your money without due process.
Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Mar 10
1/8
A 🧵on the LME situation and why it should bother anyone in mkts.

A blatant disregard for the rules, to protect one Chinese Tycoon against the market.

This is far worse than GameStop.

I tried to keep this as simple as possible. Pls correct in the replies.
2/8
Tsingshan is China’s largest nickel producer. $40B in revenues

It is run by its founder, Xiang Guangda. His moniker is “big shot.” Take that to mean he has a huge ego.

He shorted 100,00 tons of Nickel, yes, that’s a huge amount.
3/8
He was counseled to reign in this massive short. But he’s “big shot” and runs Tsingshen, so he “knows better.”

In retrospect, this position was causing mkt imbalances. This imbalance often shows up when all mkts are stressed, like they were/are with Russia invading Ukraine.
Read 9 tweets

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