One of the most interesting claims in a briefing thread that is worth reading. The 75% doesn’t refer to the entire Russian Army, but more specifically to its armored fighting arm, referred to Battalion Tactical Groups.
Why this estimate is so important is because it reveals the limited options Putin faces in trying to replace the losses suffered in Ukraine. He really only has one more throw of the dice once this army is exhausted. If he wants to go all in
After that remaining 25%, the other options get pretty frightening (chemical, biological, nuclear).
Or full societal mobilisation and the building of a new army, but that seems both societally and economically almost impossible, and would take an extremely long time (years).

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Mar 19
What US defense sources are saying about Russian combat power is most likely significantly underestimating Russian losses, unless they have developed a new way of defining combat power.
Visually confirmed Russian losses of all Russian military vehicles are very high, 244 tanks, 464 different fighting vehicles, over 500 trucks and other support vehicles and a wide range of other types such as anti air, etc. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
As these figures cover only those with visual confirmation, This represents only some of the Russian vehicles destroyed or out of action. After three weeks in the field any military, even with excellent logistics would be suffering breakdowns, etc.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 18
China wants this message to be getting out at least to Europe and North America. Makes it rather difficult to turn around and give Putin a huge amount of direct military aid.
And ultimately, China needs a better relationship with the US and Europe than it needs with Russia. They trade it does with the former dwarfs the latter. One of my favorite graphics on the subject. It’s hard to even find Russia. Image
Here is the map by volume of exports, where China is sending what it produces. Again, Russia is a small consideration. Almost all of China’s big export markets are the nation’s sanctioning Russia the most. Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 18
This is part of a long thread from US Defense official, it starts the section where the person discusses logistics. It has some of the better intelligence on the state of Russian logistics that I’ve seen. The whole thread is worthwhile
Here is the whole briefing text. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
An example of the text where the source discusses logistics: a lot there to chew on. Image
Read 28 tweets
Mar 17
Its worth noting that if Putin is throwing Russia's last remaining BTGs into the fight (and there is conflicting evidence of this), the largest country in the world will be practically defenceless except for nuclear weapons.
And with the sanctions, building a new army will take much longer as Russia will need access to a large number of microchips etc. Just another one of the unprecedented examples of stupidity that VVP showed with this invasion.
Siberia exists as part of Russia now, solely because China lets it stay that way. Russians could do nothing to stop China taking whatever it wanted (but blow up the world). We have actually stepped back to US defense doctrine in the 1950s. Massive retaliation.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 16
U.K. MOD maps of Ukraine war today and one week ago. I know we have been hearing a great deal about how the Russian military has been getting its act together and improving its logistics, but the evidence on the ground is hard to see.
A slight advance from the north towards Luhansk, but basically stuck and maybe having to withdraw to the east of Kyiv.
I’ve been accused of being far too damning of Russian military performance from the start, however I have not seen a single example of a well planned and executed operation. From logistics to AirPower to ground movement, it all seems so patchy and chaotic.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16
Sounds right. One of the most sensible compromises (and I know some people don’t like the word) would be for Ukraine to forego NATO membership but be allowed into the EU.
Being in the EU would provide security in two ways. If Russia did ever threaten Ukraine again, it would be cut off even more completely economically than now.
And, the EU looks like it’s emerging from this war as a much more focussed strategic power with military aspirations. In 20 years or so who is to say that EU will be more important to Ukraine’s security than the USA led NATO.
Read 11 tweets

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