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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 16 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
U.K. MOD maps of Ukraine war today and one week ago. I know we have been hearing a great deal about how the Russian military has been getting its act together and improving its logistics, but the evidence on the ground is hard to see.
A slight advance from the north towards Luhansk, but basically stuck and maybe having to withdraw to the east of Kyiv.
I’ve been accused of being far too damning of Russian military performance from the start, however I have not seen a single example of a well planned and executed operation. From logistics to AirPower to ground movement, it all seems so patchy and chaotic.
Can anyone actually point out one significant, efficient operation?
Ok original push out of Crimea is a widely mentioned example. Then nothing for more than 2 weeks
I wasn’t quite expecting that statement to be used verbatim…
But the point that it needs to start moving soon is valid. An invading army that is immobile in enemy country is not doing well.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 18
This is part of a long thread from US Defense official, it starts the section where the person discusses logistics. It has some of the better intelligence on the state of Russian logistics that I’ve seen. The whole thread is worthwhile
Here is the whole briefing text. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
An example of the text where the source discusses logistics: a lot there to chew on. Image
Read 28 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 17
Its worth noting that if Putin is throwing Russia's last remaining BTGs into the fight (and there is conflicting evidence of this), the largest country in the world will be practically defenceless except for nuclear weapons.
And with the sanctions, building a new army will take much longer as Russia will need access to a large number of microchips etc. Just another one of the unprecedented examples of stupidity that VVP showed with this invasion.
Siberia exists as part of Russia now, solely because China lets it stay that way. Russians could do nothing to stop China taking whatever it wanted (but blow up the world). We have actually stepped back to US defense doctrine in the 1950s. Massive retaliation.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 17
One of the most interesting claims in a briefing thread that is worth reading. The 75% doesn’t refer to the entire Russian Army, but more specifically to its armored fighting arm, referred to Battalion Tactical Groups.
Why this estimate is so important is because it reveals the limited options Putin faces in trying to replace the losses suffered in Ukraine. He really only has one more throw of the dice once this army is exhausted. If he wants to go all in
After that remaining 25%, the other options get pretty frightening (chemical, biological, nuclear).
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 16
Sounds right. One of the most sensible compromises (and I know some people don’t like the word) would be for Ukraine to forego NATO membership but be allowed into the EU.
Being in the EU would provide security in two ways. If Russia did ever threaten Ukraine again, it would be cut off even more completely economically than now.
And, the EU looks like it’s emerging from this war as a much more focussed strategic power with military aspirations. In 20 years or so who is to say that EU will be more important to Ukraine’s security than the USA led NATO.
Read 11 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 16
Some reflections of where we are now strategically in the war, and whether we might be entering the second phase of the war where all sides are altering their plans. This phase could determine how long and terrible this war will be.
The first phase of the war would be the failure of Putin's original strategy. The Russians drastically underestimated Ukrainian resistance and identity, miscalculated on NATO/EU response and seemed unaware of major flaws in their own military capabilities.
They've been dealing with that miscalculation since. As They are having major problems getting enough force to Kyiv to assault the city (as opposed to long-range bombardment), maybe even weeks away from an effort. Otoh, they are dong relatively better in the south and east.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 16
Can anyone confirm this? Would represent another sign that Ukraine is being given a range of more advanced technologies. These could be used against softer logistics targets.
Looks quite likely. Does seem to be a general push now to get Ukraine a range of better stuff. Fixed wing might be imminent.
And a range of voices in the US now advocating more and better stuff. Momentum is building.
Read 5 tweets

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