Thread by @a_martinoro

🧵 THREAD on #uranium investing 2022 (1/n):

To say that this 2022 has been eventful is an understatement. This is true for general investors, but perhaps it’s truer for uranium investors.

2. I’ll run through a quick and simplified list of events (inaccuracies possible) that have shaken, for good or bad, some more than others, the uranium sector in the less than 3 months of 2022.

3. The year began with a BANG! Nuclear inclusion in the #EUtaxonomy. Oh whoa, that’s gonna open the gates of institutional, ESG-focused capital, which will flood the sector and cause stock prices of uranium equities to skyrocket....

4. But what happened is that another event took over the headlines: Kazakhstan was on the brink of collapse! Around 40% of U production at risk. That sent the sector higher attracting a lot of hot money (including of course Sprott vehicle, which purchased a good deal of pounds).

5. But that didn’t last long. The Russians came to the rescue and Kazatomprom didn’t suffer any significant impact that we know of (supply chain and inflationary issues were more important), ...

6. though there were some political implications, such as the talk of higher taxes on miners or higher labor costs that will affect KAP. Uranium equities sold off as tensions softened and hot money left.

7. As the sector was at around 20% decline YTD, something else happened: geopolitical tensions with Russia and Ukraine. That helped sentiment in the energy sector as a whole but didn’t lift uranium equities much... until the invasion happened on 24 Feb. (That day U equities rose)

8. A few days after that there were some headline-induced worries over the safety of Ukr Nuclear Power Plants in Chernobyl (you know how that attracts sensationalists) but above all with the Zaporizhzhia NPP given the Russian attack over the plant

https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1496895177499156509?s=20&t=OQ3qT00qGTHqAn4y0cg9zg

9. That Friday uranium stocks collapsed as some said it might become a radiation nightmare, 6x worse than the Chernobyl disaster! Worries lingered for only a couple of market days and fortunately nothing happen and uranium stocks recovered.

https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1499546516293357568?s=20&t=OQ3qT00qGTHqAn4y0cg9zg

10. Marking a peak on 10 March as it seemed the US govt was going to sanction Russian uranium/fuel cycle. That day the spot price rose 12% in a day to $60. That caused excitement. SPUT at highs of over 19CAD and some stocks approaching the highs of November 2021.

11. But as peace talks seemed to advance and the fear of sanctions dropped, the uranium sector went down along with oil. As if things had come back to normal… NO, they weren't normal. But this is not all...

12. Yesterday, 16th March, we hear of a 7.3 Earthquake in Fukushima, with headlines of fire alarm at the Daichii NPP… Oh, boy, that felt frightening at first (and caused a brief sell-off in uranium equities and some nervousness), but it didn’t affect any NPP. Phew.

13. And here we are today, when we heard of the Senate moving forward with sanctions over Russian-origin uranium causing another 8% up day in the sector (as per $URNM). According to UxC pres., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks a “changing situation in all kinds of energy mkts”

14. In summary:
- Nuclear included in the EU Taxonomy
- Kazakhstan turmoil
- Russia-Ukraine war
- Fear of a 6x Chernobyl disaster
- Earthquake in Fukushima
- Sanctions over Russian uranium

15. And this list doesn't address the real fundamental underpinnings of the uranium bull thesis, that is accelerating (partly because of geopolitical tensions), which is utilities starting a strong contracting cycle to cover their future requirements. So stay tuned...#uranium