Share this page!

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Twitter logo
Mar 19 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Our 63rd Friday Report is now available covering recent developments with vaccines, treatments and data.

In this edition (thread):
•Vaccine safety results
•Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against Omicron

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the…
Also included:
•Road ahead for COVID vaccination
•BA.2 dominant in England
•Risk of severe outcomes – Omicron v Delta
•Evusheld as vaccine alternative
•More evidence Ivermectin doesn’t improve outcomes
•COVID-19 impact on brain function

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the…
Also included:
•Omicron survives longer on surfaces
•Worldwide excess mortality
•Transmissibility comparison – Omicron v Delta
•Infection studies (REACT and ONS)
•ONS antibody levels and COVID mortality
•UKHSA 28-day mortality vs ONS

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the…
And finally, a breathalyser to detect COVID?

Thanks as ever to the #FridayReport team. This week’s update came from @john_actuary, @AdeleGroyer, @DanRyanCoios and @longevitymatt.

Have a good weekend.

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Mar 16
Hospital admissions with COVID continue to increase rapidly across England. Up by 27% in the last week.

See below for a breakdown by region, age and primary diagnosis. Also bed occupancy and hospital deaths. 1/5
Admissions are up sharply in all English regions. The most rapid increase is NE and Yorks, up 52% week-on-week! Other regions are up by 21-26%. 2/5
Admissions with COVID are increasing at a similar rate in all age groups, with increases of 25-30% week-on-week. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 22
New Friday Report is now available, covering recent developments with Omicron (including the BA.2 variant), vaccines, treatments, modelling and data.

In this edition (thread):
- US cases and hospitalisations by vaccine status and previous diagnosis 🇺🇸

covidactuaries.org/2022/01/22/the…
Also included:
- Booster progress, socio-economic variation and reasons for hesitancy 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
- Omicron outcomes in SA 🇿🇦
- Some rapid tests less effective at detecting Omicron
- Vaccination, infection and fertility
- Vaccinated less likely to get Long COVID
covidactuaries.org/2022/01/22/the…
Also included:
- EAVE II enables large COVID studies 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
- Distribution of anti-virals 🇬🇧
- Hospital admissions vs modelling 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
- Global excess mortality 🌍
- @ONS infection and antibody studies 🇬🇧
- Primary diagnosis data 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
- 2021 death rates 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
covidactuaries.org/2022/01/22/the…
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 21
Update on COVID-19 admissions, occupancy and deaths in English hospitals.

Nationally, admissions with COVID have fallen by 11% week-on-week, with significant falls in every region. Fastest fall in the North West (down 20%) and slowest in the South West (down 6%). 1/4
This chart compares actual hospital admissions with modelled scenarios produced by SPI-M-O teams, including an update from @cmmid_lshtm to incorporate Omicron. Assuming no further uptick in admissions the peak will be significantly lower than the central modelled scenarios. 2/4
COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England is back below 15,000 beds occupied. Mechanical Ventilation bed occupancy is down by 13% week-on-week, while other bed occupancy is down 10%. The proportion of COVID patients in mechanical ventilation beds is the lowest it has been. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 18
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its first Mortality Monitor of 2022. It covers to 7 January (week 1).

There were 7% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as week 1 of 2019. That is 784 excess deaths in England and Wales this week.
CMI calculates 121,300 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic, of which 900 occurred in 2022.

Cumulative mortality YTD is 0.4% of a full year's mortality below 2019. The cumulative measure compares the first 7 days of each year rather than ISO weeks used above.
As has been the case for around the last six months, the number of excess deaths calculated by the CMI was reasonably similar to the number of deaths with COVID on the death certificate this week.
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 17
Tomorrow will see the publication of the first weekly death registrations update of 2022.

There is much interest in the extent to which Omicron is leading to excess deaths when compared to past winters. But how should the excess be calculated?

covidactuaries.org/2022/01/16/ass…
In a new blog @john_actuary looks at statements from @ONS and the CMI (part of @actuarynews) about the benchmark against which 2022 excess deaths will be calculated.

What sounds like a technical issue is highly significant. The ONS change will mean 11,000 fewer excess deaths.
ONS will update their benchmark so that they are taking the average of deaths in 2016-19 and 2021. Previously they used 2015-19. The chart below shows significant differences in the number of deaths “expected” each week using different choices of benchmark. Image
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 6
A fuller update on hospitals in England today, including admissions by age and hospital deaths.

Nationally, admissions with COVID are up by 43% week-on-week, but the rate of growth has slowed significantly. Today’s total is very similar to the total reported a week ago. 1/6 Image
The regional picture is very mixed but growth has been slower everywhere. The change is most pronounced in London, where the 7-day average has fallen in recent days. The fastest growth has been the North West, up 84%. 2/6 Image
Breaking down admissions by age, the 18-64 age group has fallen in the last few days. The older age groups are still increasing but there are signs that the pace has slowed for these too. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @COVID19actuary has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @COVID19actuary!

Read all threads by @COVID19actuary

:(