Mark Hertling Profile picture
Mar 19 13 tweets 3 min read
A short thread on day 24.

UKR Ministry of Defense reports UKR's forces in Kyiv are continuing to engage RU forces in the NW, N and E of the city and have pushed those forces BACK several miles.

Indicates confusion & lack of supplies in RU force. 1/13

edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…
UKR Army and territorial forces (& citizens) continue fight against RU forces trying to take/bypass Mykolaiv in the south.

A critical fight. If the RU can't get across the Bug River in this city, it will be tough to link with a proposed RU Navy landing at Odesa 2/
RU continues shelling the once-beautiful city of Kharkiv, but the UKR Army & Territorial Defense fights to block RU ground force advancement. 3/

bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Kherson - the first city to be "captured" by Russian forces - is now contested.

Ukrainian forces staged a daring attack against the Russian base at the international airport in that city with devastating results. 4/

news.sky.com/video/kherson-…
In W. Ukraine, RU attempts to interdict UKR supply lines with precision strikes.

Attacks are attempt to interdict flow from UKR logistics sites & NATO arms transfer points.

Use of precision "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile is interesting, but somewhat irrelevant. 5/
UKR refugee flow continues. A few "safe passage lanes" open this morning.

Citizens continue to be plagued with lack of water, food, heat, electricity.

UKR continues to attrit the RU army; RU army continues to attempt to attrit UKR citizens with illegal attacks. 6/
As noted yesterday, RU not attempting to "maneuver" on most axes of advance. RU has mostly transitioned to hasty defense. Proving they are as inept at defense as offensive operations.

UKR forces continuing their "active defense," picking time and place for attacks. 7/
Other news:

UKR reports the fifth RU general - a three star - has been KIA. No confirmation from RU.

RU reportedly asking for Armenian army assistance in fight; no reports yet of Syrian fighters on the battlefield.

UKR President continues to plea for peace talks. 8/
Both sides now engaged in deadly "battles of attrition."

UKR holds upper hand in force-on-force vs RU troops.

RU holds powerful advantage on attacks against civilians.

Logistics for BOTH sides increasingly critical for this fight to continue. UKR has the advantage here. 9/
In my view, we are seeing the fight between 2 different armies. The kind described in Jean Larteguy's book "The Centurions."

Larteguy described the struggles of French officers regarding expectations in the 1950s & 60s, and it applies today.
10/
"I'd like to have two armies: one for display with lovely guns, tanks, little soldiers, staffs, distinguished & doddering Generals, & dear little regimental officers who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles... 11/
an army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.

The other Army would be the real one, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display, but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded... 12/
& to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the army in which I should like to fight."

In my humble opinion, this quote describes the difference I see between RU and UKR forces - and the society they come from - in this fight today. 13/13

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More from @MarkHertling

Mar 21
A new stream on an unfortunate topic: battlefield deaths & casualties.

Last night, @ErinBurnett on @CNN asked me why it seemed the casualty rates on the RU side were so high.

I didn't want to talk "body counts," as the numbers differ depending on who is reporting. 1/25
So I started by reminding her that early in this fight I had predicted that the casualties incurred on a high-intensity, technology-heavy, conventional force battlefield would likely be significant...in the tens of thousands.

When I first said that, it was met with surprise. 2/
But that shouldn't suprise anyone.

The kind of fight we see in UKR is nothing like what the US army experienced in OPN Just Cause, OPN Desert Storm...& especially not what we saw in OEF & OIF.

The 1st two were one sided affairs, the latter 2 were complex counterinsurgencies. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Mar 18
Today's thread on the ongoing RU invasion. (NB: All of this are just some personal thoughts to contribute to understanding)

3 things:
-Difference between Annihilation & Attrition
-How RU's logistic plan did not support their operation
-How logistics affects both sides now 1/20
From their original plan with 4 Axis of Advance, it appears to me the RU wanted an classic battle of annihilation.

What's that? It isn't what is sounds to be. 2/
"Annihilation" is a military strategy where the attacking army seeks to destroy the enemy through a series of battles in an overarching campaign.

Successful battles of annihilation attempts to use overwhelming force, surprise and "grand maneuvers" from at least 2 directions. 3/
Read 21 tweets
Mar 17
Just finished a segment with the terrific @biannagolodryga where I described some of the things in the $800M package.

I know weapon systems can be confusing, so here's a bit of an explanation (plus another "bonus" NFZ comment at the end) 1/17
First, anti-tank.

The Javelin is a phenomenal shoulder-fired weapon. It's expensive, but it's designed to destroy a multi-million dollar tank or personnel carrier (BMP, BTR, etc)

It has both a side attack & top-down attack mode, and tankers fear this kinds of weapons. 2/
It can accurately hit & destroy enemy armor at ranges up to 3000+ meters. But...it also has an "arming requirement," and can't be used against close-in targets during ambushes.

For those, a soldier needs an LAW (light antitank weapon) or an RPG. Countries have variants 3/
Read 17 tweets
Mar 15
These RU loss charts of equipment & personnel are questionable, but if they are even close to reality they are significant.

In 2007-9, I commanded the @1stArmoredDiv, 1 of 5 “heavy” divisions (10 total active divisions) in our Army.

Here’s how those losses would compare 1/8
The 5 US Army divisions that have tanks contain from 101 up to 303 tanks, because US division vary from 1 to 3 armored brigades.

That’s hard for civilians to understand, but each Division is organized for different missions. 2/
Current US Army divisions have from as few as 15,000 Soldiers (in a division of only two Armored Combat Arms Brigades) to well over 20,000+ Soldiers (in Divisions where there are four ACABs). 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 15
After the rumor that Russia was asking for Chinese equivalent of Meals, Ready to Eat (MEEs) @hawaiidelilah asked my opinion of the logistics indicators of the Russian force.

The military uses “classes of supply” to categorize things armies need. 1/6
Heres my evaluation, based on what I’ve seen, of Russia’s state of logistics, and where they are failing. (Note, I have no data on any of this, but it’s my gut feel). 2/
-Class I: food, rations and water:F
-Class III: Petroleum, fuel, lubricants: D
-Class IV: Fortification and barrier material: untested, likely F
-Class V: Ammunition: on artillery, missiles and rockets, declining; all others unknown, likely D. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 13
This is a good map.

But let’s add some context:
-the circumference around Kyiv is 30 miles
-there’s a major river flowing through the city
-3 million people live w/in the city limits
-the 3 “arrows” (axis of advances) on left (30k RU troops) have been stalled for 96 hours
1/4
-the 1 arrow on right (about 15k troops) has been beat up in Sumy & Chernihiv
-all logistics columns have and continue to suffer significant losses
-an attack takes a 3:1 advantage; a siege takes much more. 2/4
-it’s very cold, RU troops are hungry & wet, have been in the field in UKR (enemy territory) for 17 days & in Belarus several months before that
-UKR is defending their capital…RU troops don’t know why they were there.
3/4
Read 4 tweets

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