Thread by @MarkHertling

Today's thread on the ongoing RU invasion. (NB: All of this are just some personal thoughts to contribute to understanding)

3 things:
-Difference between Annihilation & Attrition
-How RU's logistic plan did not support their operation
-How logistics affects both sides now 1/20

From their original plan with 4 Axis of Advance, it appears to me the RU wanted an classic battle of annihilation.

What's that? It isn't what is sounds to be. 2/

"Annihilation" is a military strategy where the attacking army seeks to destroy the enemy through a series of battles in an overarching campaign.

Successful battles of annihilation attempts to use overwhelming force, surprise and "grand maneuvers" from at least 2 directions. 3/

It appeared to me RU had thea primary objective to "Seize Kyiv, and force the transfer of the government."

That requires him to also defeat the UKR army.

A "supporting attack" was to encircle the Donbas, and defeat the bulk of UKR's army.

Here's a simplistic attack map: 4/

3 forces would attack Kyiv (likely due to terrain, lakes and rivers). 1 from the NW, 1 from the W, and 1 coming through Kharkiv from the E.

2 forces would attack & attempt to "surround" UKR forces fighting in the Donbas, linking up N & S near Dnipro....but there's more. 5/

In the supporting attacks in the east, there would also be a "wing" of the force that would establish a land bridge from Crimea to the Donbas (thru Mariupol), & another amphibious assault in Odesa linking with forces coming through Mykaliav.

Wow, that's pretty ambitious.6/

It's ambitious for a force that has not tried these kinds of complex/large scale offensive maneuvers in 70 years.

It requires savvy operational artists, excellent Command, Control, Communications & Intelligence (C3I)...and most importantly, well trained troops & leaders. 7/

Other things needed for "annihilation" is overwhelming combat power.

Many believed the 190+k troops RU had on the border of UKR to be impressive.

But in the offense, Napoleon suggests you need at least a 3:1 advantage over the defender, more if you're fighting in cities. 8/

While the RU force appeared to be well-equipped & manned...

UKR's army has grown to over 240k, with additional manpower in the territorial force.

And they're much better trained & have a greater will (see my tweet of 24 Feb). 9/

Another thing you need in for annihilation is unimpeded supply lines.

For RU plan of 6 different Axis of Advance, they would need at least 6 major supply and maneuver lines.

And...they had "exterior lines" & UKR had "interior lines" 10/

What's exterior/interior lines?

This map shows the difference between RU and UKR's lines of supply and support.

A quick glance shows how long it would take to get from one end to another for RU supplies, and how UKR can move more quickly inside their lines 11/

Remember, UKR is a country as big as Texas...about 790 miles east to west, and 380 miles north to south.

I haven't computed the distance, but RU logisticians are operating over 1400 miles (that's a SWAG, or situational wild-ass guess), and UKR has an easier time of it. 12/

Many military analysts are suggesting RU offense is "culminating."

That military term means RU can't sustain their offense, so they must transition to defense. Not good, as the defender becomes static, can be attacked but still must keep supply lines open .
13/

UKR, on the other hand, has the advantage of the defender.

They are on their own home turf, they have support of the population, they can pick and chose when & where they attack. 14/

The bottom line, both forces are now in a "battle of attrition." Very different from a battle of annihilation.

Attrition is a strategy where one side tries to cause such loss of soldiers & destruction of resources that the enemy forces collapses 15/

UKR has always prepared for a battle of attrition against the numerically superior RU force.

But RU has gone from a battle of annihilation to now hundreds of small battles with UKRs Army. And they are attempting to execute a battle of attrition against UKR's civilians. 16/

In this fight, the RU will increasingly loose forces, but they will likely continue to indiscriminately & criminally target civilians.

UKR will continue to out-maneuver & out-fight the RU enemy, but it will be increasingly tough for them to counter the loss of UKR citizens. 17/

Logistics plays a big role in this phase of the war for both sides.

It will be increasingly tougher for RU to get supplied in enemy territory...fuel, ammo, parts, and personnel replacement will be tough to replace. 18/

While UKR has stockpiles of equipment - and they are getting more from the west - it will be increasingly tougher to locate those supplies where they need it.

And there will be competing demands for the civilians, as refugee flow increases & cities are targeted. 19/

The key to this phase of the battle - who will win - is who gets resupplied, how both sides continue to fight, and the ability to counter the RU criminal acts of killing civilian non-combatants.

These are just my thoughts in watching the continuation of this war 20/end

By the way, please excuse typos and syntax errors.