Dan Lamothe Profile picture
Mar 21 15 tweets 2 min read
A backgrounder briefing with a senior U.S. defense official at the Pentagon about the Russian war in Ukraine has just concluded. It’s Day 26 of the invasion.

Some takeaways:
As noted widely in the media, fighting in and around Mariupol is fierce, the senior defense official says. It remains isolated.
Seizing Mariupol is significant to the Russians because it will provide Putin with a land bridge to Crimea, cut off Ukrainian forces there from the rest of the country, and provide the Russians with a new port, senior U.S. defense official says.
The military situation elsewhere in Ukraine remains largely static, with Russia unable to date to capture major Ukrainian cities and continued bombardment.
So far, Russia has captured the smaller southern cities of Kherson, Melitipol and Berdyansk, the senior U.S. defense official says. “That’s it.”

He notes, again, that this falls way short of initial Russian objectives.
As of Monday, Russia has now launched more than 1,100 missiles at Ukraine during the war. That number continues to climb by a few dozen per day.
Pentagon still is not confirming Russia’s claim that it used hypersonic missiles in the war.

“We’re not able to refute it but we can’t independently confirm it, either,” the senior defense official said.
The senior defense official adds that it’s a “bit of a head scratcher if they did” use hypersonics to hit the reported targets they did (buildings).

Says it may be they were trying to demonstrate the capability, or to gain leverage with the Ukrainians in negotiations.
The most recent package of military aid approved by President Biden has not reached Ukraine yet, the senior defense official says.

That package included, for the first time, tactical drones.
Continued Russian naval activity is occurring in the northern Black Sea. Unclear what that means yet.

About a dozen Russian war ships are there, the senior defense official says.
U.S. still is not verifying reports of Russian generals killed. That keeps coming up. Same answer from Pentagon.
That said, senior defense official makes point that “there’s a certain logic to make sure that you have general officers in the field” in a war this size. Pentagon assesses U.S. and Russians operate differently, w/ experienced enlisted U.S. troops providing leadership, too.
The Pentagon assesses that a Russian drone that flew into Polish airspace recently occurred because of a mistake. It appears the drone lost its datalink, went into Poland and then crashed, senior U.S. defense official says.
Preassembled Russian combat power is now assessed “at just below 90 percent.”

This has been a relatively vague Pentagon statistic that has frustrated some outside analysts.
There have been no recent communications between @secdef and his Russian counterparts, senior U.S. defense official says.

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More from @DanLamothe

Mar 22
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the Russian war on Ukraine just concluded. It’s Day 27 since the Russian invasion.

Here are some takeaways:
Fighting in and around the southern port city of Mariupol remains fierce, as Russia tries to claim a first strategic victory after weeks of fighting. It now includes naval shelling launched from the Sea of Azov, the senior defense official said.
Near the southern city of Mykolaiv, there are now signs that the Russians are repositioning themselves outside the city to the south after facing fierce resistance from Ukrainians, senior U.S. defense official says.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 18
I’ve been noodling with this @jackshafer piece this afternoon. Parts of it ring true. But other parts fundamentally are at odds with my lived experience.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
I’ll say this with background up front: I’ve spent months of my life around the U.S. military as a journalist in Afghanistan. I’ve seen ambushes launched, IEDs explode, airstrikes land, etc.
My experiences aren’t particularly remarkable in that regard, either. There’s a generation of us journalists out there, and there’s always *someone* who saw something louder, crazier, scarier, darker.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 18
No Pentagon background briefing today about the war in Ukraine as @SecDef and his senior staff are traveling.

They did just release this update, though:
@SecDef "This is Day 23 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Russians remain largely stalled across the country."
"Near Kyiv, we still observe Russian forces have not made significant advances toward the city in the north/north west. And to the east of Kyiv, we have observed no movement of Russian forces."
Read 11 tweets
Mar 17
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the Russian war on Ukraine has just concluded. It’s Day 22 of the invasion.

Much remains the same:
Russia’s advances are largely still stalled. One exception: Pentagon assesses Thursday for the first time that the Russians have seized Izyum, a town southeast of Kharkiv and north of Mariupol.

Russia want to cut off eastern Ukraine from rest of country, U.S. official says.
Front end of beleaguered Russian convoy north of Kyiv remains outside city. But Russian forces have moved up artillery, the senior defense official said, as Russia appears to be readying additional fires.

“They’re trying to wear the city down,” senior defense official says.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 17
Upshot of @SecDef in Slovakia, per presser: Slovakia says it's willing to provide Ukraine with S-300 air defense, but wants assurances that they'll be provided with some other system to defend themselves.

@SecDef says he has nothing to announce today.
SECDEF, asked if the U.S. could provide Slovakia a Patriot or some other air-defense system:

"I don’t have any announcements for you this afternoon. These are things that we will continue to work with all of our allies on..."
Slovakian defense minister: "“Should there be a situation where there is a proper replacement or if we have a capability guaranteed for a certain period of time, then we would be willing to discuss the future of S-300 system.”
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16
A background briefing about the Russian war on Ukraine with a senior U.S. defense official has just concluded.

It’s Day 21 of the invasion, and there are a few significant updates:
First, the Pentagon assesses today that Russian warships are now shelling areas around Odessa, a major port city in southwestern Ukraine.

Other naval activity also has increased, with Russian landing craft moving around but not going ashore, the senior defense official said.
It’s still unclear if Russia will attempt an amphibious landing on or near Odessa. Russia launched one amphibious landing farther east early in the landing, but it was small and on an uncontested shoreline, the senior defense official said.
Read 14 tweets

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