A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the Russian war on Ukraine just concluded. It’s Day 27 since the Russian invasion.
Here are some takeaways:
Here are some takeaways:
Fighting in and around the southern port city of Mariupol remains fierce, as Russia tries to claim a first strategic victory after weeks of fighting. It now includes naval shelling launched from the Sea of Azov, the senior defense official said.
Near the southern city of Mykolaiv, there are now signs that the Russians are repositioning themselves outside the city to the south after facing fierce resistance from Ukrainians, senior U.S. defense official says.
As reported elsewhere, there is a Ukrainian effort afoot to retake terrain they had lost to Russia. Pentagon isn’t commenting on specific locations, but senior defense official says “we’re starting to see indications” that Ukraine is “now able and willing to take back territory.”
Still little clarity on Russian casualty numbers, after an unexpected report from a Russian tabloid yesterday said that more than 9,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. Russia has since blamed that report on a hack.
The Pentagon is “aware of that incident,” but can’t say whether the report was a hack, a protest or someone “making a statement.”
U.S. estimates of Russian combat deaths are still nebulous.
“Even our best estimates are just that, and we have low confidence in them.”
U.S. estimates of Russian combat deaths are still nebulous.
“Even our best estimates are just that, and we have low confidence in them.”
Continued discussion about Russia reinforcing its military in Ukraine. If it does so, the senior defense official says, “the most likely scenario would be that they would draw them from outside of Russia.”
That said, other options are available for Russian reinforcements.
“I can’t rule out that they wouldn’t pull out reinforcements from in Russia, too,” senior U.S. defense official says.
“I can’t rule out that they wouldn’t pull out reinforcements from in Russia, too,” senior U.S. defense official says.
President Biden raised yesterday concerns about Russia potentially using chem/bio weapons.
The senior defense official says they still have no signs that anything is imminent, but Russian officials “continue to talk about this.”
The senior defense official says they still have no signs that anything is imminent, but Russian officials “continue to talk about this.”
Some fidelity on Russian naval action. There are about 21 Russian ships in the Black Sea, senior defense official says. That includes 12 surface combatants and nine tank landing ships.
Russian forces are still roughly in the same positions outside Kyiv: 15 km northwest of the city center, and 30 km east.
“We just have not seen a lot of movement on their part.”
“We just have not seen a lot of movement on their part.”
Senior U.S. defense official says that its deconfliction line with Russia for this conflict is tested every day “and the Russians are picking up.” Calls that a “good thing.”
Senior U.S. defense officials compares current U.S.-Russia deconfliction line for Ukraine war with a similar line set up years ago for operations in Syria that still exists. It has narrow goals, he implies.
“It’s a deconfliction line. It’s not a complaint line.”
“It’s a deconfliction line. It’s not a complaint line.”
Continued morale issues among Russian soldiers seen, senior defense official says.
In addition to food and fuel shortages, the Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue.
In addition to food and fuel shortages, the Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue.
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