J.E. Dyer Profile picture
Mar 21 14 tweets 3 min read
This is what a lot of ppl are arguing over & it's a good moment for reflection.
"The media, intelligence community and DNC all lied in order to alter the outcome of an election."
Jeff C says exactly the right thing: we can't trust them now.
He does NOT say the wrong thing... 1/14
...which would be that there's anyone to prosecute or any statutory crime here.
Two of the groups actually get to lie to alter the outcome of an election, & do it all the time. (Media & DNC.)
3rd group, intel comm, can lie as private citizens (what they did re laptop)...2/14
...and in any case, proving *in court* that they lied w/"Russian disinfo" statement is not something a prosecutor would even attempt.
Even if they were using access to natl intel to lie to the public, this is a case of *absence* of supporting intel data - NOT... 3/14
... *presence* of counter-info that could prove their statement a lie.
Their defense in court is a slam-dunk: they may have been simply wrong on an analytical point.
That defense applies no matter what objective they may be accused of having. 4/14
Even if someone attempted an obstruction charge (i.e., they tried to discourage L/E investigation, misdirect it to natsec issue), this is not a case in which mens rea could be proven beyond doubt in court. Their analysis could just have been wrong, which is not a crime.
5/14
I keep hammering this for 3 reasons.
1. Focus on thirst for indictable acts, & suiting probes to court reqmts for evidence & evidence handling, can actively hinder revealing *full truth* during investigation.
We saw that 25-30 yrs ago when fed prosecutors ignored... 6/14
...evidence of outside collaboration in terrorism cases b/c if they brought such info in, it would hinder getting convictions of those charged. Understandable, but we lost so much valuable intel that way. We would have been better off pursuing the evidence & knowing... 7/14
...about the potentially unindictable actors.
2. We're going to find that most of what went into Russiagate/Spygate was unindictable. Pls note that doesn't mean none of it was (e.g., the falsified FISA applications). But whole chunks of it didn't violate law in any...8/14
...provable way.
We can't be satisfied w/merely finding a few indictables. I want ppl jailed too, even if it's just for lying under oath when giving a deposition.
But misuse of natl intel & L/E apparatus WILL NOT be redressed in court. It WILL NOT be. Too much is...
9/14
...legitimately subject to discretion & judgment. Ppl can be proven wrong & even unethical, but (esp. in intel) they can't be proven to have committed a crime. Devin Nunes correctly said that several times 5 yrs ago.
So it is indispensable... 10/14
...to be thinking beyond indictments now. Let Durham, the expert, find indictables. We should be focused at least as much on what needs changing about our institutions, laws, & expectations, esp. as regards govt spying on the ppl, & otherwise weaponizing govt against us. 11/14
Courts can't adjust that for us. It must be Congress.
That means not only that we need to frame the case for the biggest collective scrub of law & its premises in our history.
It means we MUST give Congress a GOP majority in 2023.
3. We'll get a lot less... 12/14
...discouraged if we realize the longer-term & more important consequences will come from Congress.
I see a lot of despondency out there b/c indictments have been so few. We should get all we can, but none of them at the expense of knowing the full story.
13/14
It's the not knowing the full truth that will kill the Republic in the end. We still have the opportunity to know what matters, & do *what matters* about it.
If we keep that in mind we don't need to lose heart. 14/14

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More from @OptimisticCon

Mar 22
Short thread on Barr & "election interference."
The strange thing here is that Barr is saying some ppl's failure to tell the truth about the laptop was election interference.
Yet - pay close attention - the only actor that might conceivably be accused of interference was... 1/7
...the FBI. The FBI knew something it wasn't telling anyone, b/c it had had the laptop since Dec 2019.
And - here's the "pay attention" part - Barr said over the wknd that the FBI did its job by making a statement about that.
Yet the FBI *DIDN'T* say anything illuminating...2/7
...about the laptop in its statement. All it did was say it had nothing to add to DNI Ratcliffe's statement.
So Barr basically covered for the FBI stonewall.
I outlined yesterday why there was only one thing the FBI would say about the laptop, & that was...3/7
Read 7 tweets
Mar 20
This is going to be really unpopular, & it's no excuse about the evident corruption at FBI & DOJ.
But it's true.
1. Ratcliffe did his job, even if it was weak sauce. His job was to make an *intel* statement on the propaganda statement from the "51 officials."
Such a... 1/13
...statement by the DNI had to be about *intel.* It cd NOT legitimately be about confirming/vouching for laptop origin or contents. Not intel's lane.
Nor could he state it wasn't Russian disinfo. He could say there was no intel to support that assessment.
His assessment... 2/13
...on that matter - whether there was intel to support the 51's statement - was definitive. No other assessment would have been.
2. FBI might well have said more than "we have nothing to add to DNI's comments." It's not what folks would have wanted; i.e., full-throated... 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Mar 9
Weird indeed.
Note, in any case, that Iran statement from new USIC threat assessment is a masterpiece of disingenuousness.
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2139…
1/13
The statement, from p. 15 of the assessment document.
"We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device. …"
2/13
Some of the disingenuous part:
"Iran continues to increase the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA limits. Iran continues to ignore restrictions on advanced centrifuge research and development and continues uranium enrichment operations at ..."
3/13
Read 13 tweets
Mar 9
Interesting sequence with Poland, US, and the MiG-29s.
Monday 7 Mar (reporting time 2053 GMT)
Iran envoy abruptly walks out of Vienna talks
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
1/3
Tuesday 8 Mar (reporting time 2022 GMT)
US govt disclaims knowledge of MiG-29 delivery plan thru Ramstein, says it's "untenable."
apnews.com/article/russia…
2/3
Wednesday 9 Mar (reporting time 1453 GMT)
Iran envoy back in Vienna to resume talks after sudden departure on Monday.
timesofisrael.com/top-iran-nucle…
Just interesting.
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7
Analyses predicting this are holding up well.
In this 12 Jan piece, I was off on how much of Ukraine Putin would put at immediate risk in an invasion. But the case that Putin's real goal is to divide & neutralize NATO stands.
…eoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2022/01/12/a-d… 1/4
Pull quote:
"I am confident NATO is not itching for an armed confrontation in Ukraine. The risk is not that there would be one, but that there would spectacularly not be an effective reaction to another Russian move there.
"Rather, it’s at least 50-50 that we would start...2/4
...to see the NATO consensus fall apart, on exactly the matters Putin seeks concessions on."
Putin's actions since indicate he has cut the cord with the status quo ante. That means it's no longer of use to him. It's not a constraint on what he will do.
His naughty list...3/4
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
Not a bad place to be. No-fly zone is a badly flawed proposal in this situation.
Risk to enforcing forces would be significantly greater than in Iraq. Russia has threat of S400 & drawback of poor air space management capabilities.
Russia's using a lot of helos but ... 1/4
...relatively few fixed-wing aircraft (little need for fighter interceptors, & Ru ground strike aircraft relatively hard to defend from ground-to-air threats).
NFZ wd be mainly about helos. Escalation cost of classic model NFZ enforcement for that threat exceeds... 2/4
...benefit.
If US were a belligerent, obvious cost-benefit move wd be to destroy Russian air & SAM assets on ground in Ru/Belarus.
But we're NOT a belligerent, nor is there the slightest benefit to US, NATO or the planet in our becoming one.
Ukraine situation is ... 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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