J.E. Dyer Profile picture
Mar 20 13 tweets 3 min read
This is going to be really unpopular, & it's no excuse about the evident corruption at FBI & DOJ.
But it's true.
1. Ratcliffe did his job, even if it was weak sauce. His job was to make an *intel* statement on the propaganda statement from the "51 officials."
Such a... 1/13
...statement by the DNI had to be about *intel.* It cd NOT legitimately be about confirming/vouching for laptop origin or contents. Not intel's lane.
Nor could he state it wasn't Russian disinfo. He could say there was no intel to support that assessment.
His assessment... 2/13
...on that matter - whether there was intel to support the 51's statement - was definitive. No other assessment would have been.
2. FBI might well have said more than "we have nothing to add to DNI's comments." It's not what folks would have wanted; i.e., full-throated... 3/13
...endorsement of NY Post story about laptop & contents. FBI couldn't do that. FBI doesn't litigate such evidence in public.
But FBI could have acknowledged having the laptop & made a pro forma statement about not being able to discuss it further.
My guess:... 4/13
...that's where the corruption kicked in. Not addressing the laptop at all benefited Biden.
Any affirmative statement about having it would have kept story alive & prompted lots of questions about it before the election. That would have benefited Trump.
We know what FBI... 5/13
...chose to do.
3. FBI was never going to say it wasn't Russian disinfo. Neither was DNI. At most, Ratcliffe's answer was the justifiable statement: there was no intel to support that assertion by the 51.
4. The slimy thing here was the 51 & media publishing their... 6/13
...asinine claim about Russian disinfo. Everyone involved in that knew DNI & FBI/DOJ would be constrained in what they could say. Even if it might affect the election, it's not actually the job of fed agencies to repudiate things said by private citizens.
5. If I'd been... 7/13
...Ratcliffe, I would have had no fear of saying the profile of the laptop situation didn't look like any Russian disinfo op I'd ever seen. But that's b/c I'm an intel professional & competent to render such a judgment & discuss it in abstract. My bottom line would still... 8/13
...have been exactly what Ratcliffe said.
6. Media are badly at fault here for not pursuing the story. FBI I think took advantage of its lawful reticence about evidence & investigations to give Biden an assist.
The core problem is the 51 who gutted intel like a fish... 9/13
...to make an (absurd) analytical statement that would seem to justify media ignoring the laptop (& larger Biden story).
The 51 didn't have "intel" any more than the DNI did. In a formal sense, all they did was purport to analyze the NY post story.
In doing so... 10/13
...they abused the reputation of the IC for political effect.
It was convenient for the "deep state" to do things this way. Whoever was responding to the crisis created by the Hunter Biden laptop knew it would be outside the lane & legit practices of both the DNI and FBI... 11/13
...to publicly *refute* the 51's claim.
That's the cheap, disgusting core of the matter. The 51 could get away with it, for long enough to get past the election, & that's *because of* agency standards that normally are a net positive.
In this case the standards served to... 12/13
...keep a lie (by the 51 & their collaborators) from being exposed.
We can hope the public will learn the obvious lesson from that. I think a lot of people have.
13/13

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More from @OptimisticCon

Mar 21
This is what a lot of ppl are arguing over & it's a good moment for reflection.
"The media, intelligence community and DNC all lied in order to alter the outcome of an election."
Jeff C says exactly the right thing: we can't trust them now.
He does NOT say the wrong thing... 1/14
...which would be that there's anyone to prosecute or any statutory crime here.
Two of the groups actually get to lie to alter the outcome of an election, & do it all the time. (Media & DNC.)
3rd group, intel comm, can lie as private citizens (what they did re laptop)...2/14
...and in any case, proving *in court* that they lied w/"Russian disinfo" statement is not something a prosecutor would even attempt.
Even if they were using access to natl intel to lie to the public, this is a case of *absence* of supporting intel data - NOT... 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Mar 9
Weird indeed.
Note, in any case, that Iran statement from new USIC threat assessment is a masterpiece of disingenuousness.
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2139…
1/13
The statement, from p. 15 of the assessment document.
"We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device. …"
2/13
Some of the disingenuous part:
"Iran continues to increase the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA limits. Iran continues to ignore restrictions on advanced centrifuge research and development and continues uranium enrichment operations at ..."
3/13
Read 13 tweets
Mar 9
Interesting sequence with Poland, US, and the MiG-29s.
Monday 7 Mar (reporting time 2053 GMT)
Iran envoy abruptly walks out of Vienna talks
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
1/3
Tuesday 8 Mar (reporting time 2022 GMT)
US govt disclaims knowledge of MiG-29 delivery plan thru Ramstein, says it's "untenable."
apnews.com/article/russia…
2/3
Wednesday 9 Mar (reporting time 1453 GMT)
Iran envoy back in Vienna to resume talks after sudden departure on Monday.
timesofisrael.com/top-iran-nucle…
Just interesting.
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7
Analyses predicting this are holding up well.
In this 12 Jan piece, I was off on how much of Ukraine Putin would put at immediate risk in an invasion. But the case that Putin's real goal is to divide & neutralize NATO stands.
…eoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2022/01/12/a-d… 1/4
Pull quote:
"I am confident NATO is not itching for an armed confrontation in Ukraine. The risk is not that there would be one, but that there would spectacularly not be an effective reaction to another Russian move there.
"Rather, it’s at least 50-50 that we would start...2/4
...to see the NATO consensus fall apart, on exactly the matters Putin seeks concessions on."
Putin's actions since indicate he has cut the cord with the status quo ante. That means it's no longer of use to him. It's not a constraint on what he will do.
His naughty list...3/4
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
Not a bad place to be. No-fly zone is a badly flawed proposal in this situation.
Risk to enforcing forces would be significantly greater than in Iraq. Russia has threat of S400 & drawback of poor air space management capabilities.
Russia's using a lot of helos but ... 1/4
...relatively few fixed-wing aircraft (little need for fighter interceptors, & Ru ground strike aircraft relatively hard to defend from ground-to-air threats).
NFZ wd be mainly about helos. Escalation cost of classic model NFZ enforcement for that threat exceeds... 2/4
...benefit.
If US were a belligerent, obvious cost-benefit move wd be to destroy Russian air & SAM assets on ground in Ru/Belarus.
But we're NOT a belligerent, nor is there the slightest benefit to US, NATO or the planet in our becoming one.
Ukraine situation is ... 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
Caveat regarding situation in Ukraine.
This isn't a warning about unverified claims, images, & video. Ppl are familiar w/that.
Situation overall is evidently a temperate version of "Russia not doing as well as expected."
No need to doubt that, though anecdotes keep falling... 1/7
...apart.
Initial damage/kill numbers rarely reliable in conflict this size. Understood.
Caveat is about taking Russia's failures w/out question as to *why.*
It's not interesting to conclude things are going wrong for Russia.
Russia is DOING everything wrong. Why? 2/7
Russia keeps exposing poorly defended & inadequate advance forces to a counterattack capability the whole world knows is there. Not like it's a surprise.
Russians mounted major entry ops w/out sufficient deep/interdiction fires first. Why?
Russia seems, by report, to... 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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