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Trent Telenko Profile picture
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Mar 21 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Small 🧵This is an observation I will disagree with slightly in that the Russians have no choice but to keep putting Helicopters at Kherson.

They need helicopter air cover for truck resupply convoys so the Russian ground offensive can reach Odessa & supply the Mariupol attack
1/
Ukraine is doing to the Russian helicopters at Kherson what the IJN cruisers & battleships did to the USMC planes at Henderson Field on Guadalcanal in WW2.

2/ Image
This is why I keep repeating:

"Seldom are there things in war that have not happened before."

Failing logistics look the same war after war.
3/
P.S.

The Ukrainians need to drop some psywar ops leaflets at Kherson with a picture of destroyed Russian helicopters and the phrase in Russian:

"Please send more"

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 23
Train Logistical🧵note the Russians are shelling Ukrainian train lines going to the Donbas.

This is a Russian battlefield "Admission Against Interest" regards their belief they will capture it anytime soon.

I've been looking for this since my "operational attrition" thread👇👇
Russians destroying Ukrainian train lines means they are more worried about Ukrainian logistics in future operations than their own offensives.

That is, Russia is now more worried about what Ukraine is about to do to Russians than what they will do to Ukraine...in the Donbas
2/ Image
To restate it, the Russians are on the logistical back foot in the Donbas.

This is directly in line with Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims that:

"Russian forces have enough supplies to last 'no more than three days'"
3/
 dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 23
People are looking at the raw numbers here, 🧵look at the casualty ratio instead:
9861 Russian KIA
16,153 Russian WIA
The Russians have 37% KIA & 63% WIA, a 2 to 3 ratio.

This represents an utter collapse the Russian medical evacuation & treatment system. Note, no "missing"
1/
...or POW categories.

That lack of "Missing" & "POW" categories, which are standard in professional military casualty reporting, is a "poker tell" regards there being more Russian military casualties & losses.

There are a lot of small Russian columns wiped out by
2/
...Ukrainian forces.

There is no "Platinum 5-minutes," no "Golden hour" in the Russian Army.

Russian leaders simply do not care for the lives of the conscripts in their charge.

Compare that to 2 dead to 3 wounded ratio of the Russian Army to the between 1-to-7 and 1-to-10
3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 21
This is a truck logistics history🧵that will point back to my "Russian truck fleet is junk in 6-to-8 weeks from operational attrition" startment.

These KamAZ trucks are the newest generation available to Russia.
kamazexport.com
1/
This is a ZIL-131HV truck.

Production of all versions of the ZIL military truck at the Moscow plant ended in 1990.

It is 2022. You are seeing a lot of these in Ukraine.👇
2/
 autoweekvirtualgreencarshow.com/the-best-sovie…
You see a couple of dead ZIL trucks with this dead Russian Object 640 Black Eagle tank prototype in these Ukrainian battle damage assessment photos.
3/
 reddit.com/r/TankPorn/com…
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 20
Alright Lady's & Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread🧵 for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.

1/
In my now widely read thread on poorly maintained, cheap Chinese made, truck tires, I explained how Russia lost trucks & mobility by not maintaining tires.

This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition."

2/
That is, just by operating vehicles, you lose some of them because they break.

This gets a lot worse in combat. Each mile traveled by a military truck in war is between 10 and 20 miles wear. This is simple.

Truck drivers abuse trucks because they don't want to die.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 19
Railway Logistical thread🧵

It seems the Belarus opposition has decided to kick Russia & the Russian supporting Belarus strongman in the logistical railway gonads.👇👇👇
1/
There is foreign media confirmation of this Belarus railway sabotage.
2/
 jpost.com/breaking-news/…
There is now literally no chance of Russia pushing its northern column into Kyiv for almost a week.

There is now a massive "pig in a python" of Russian supply trains behind this rail line breakage, building up.
3/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 18
Alright, new historical logistics thread🧵
based on this RFEL retweet below.

It will be a VERY grim thread laying a marker against future events.😖😖😖
There is a medical evacuation BMP in that Radio Free Europe video.

There is a part where the reporter is interviewing a Ukrainian talking about a mitten full of Ukrainian coins that Russian's looted.
2/
Given that Ukrainian's stories from locals, my impression of the Russian Army northern column is that their foraging has reduced them to the same state as the Catholic armies of the Holy Roman Empire in Germany during the 30 years war (1618–1648).

3/
 military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Thirty_Ye…
Read 9 tweets

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