Thread by @TrentTelenko

Train Logistical🧵note the Russians are shelling Ukrainian train lines going to the Donbas.

This is a Russian battlefield "Admission Against Interest" regards their belief they will capture it anytime soon.

I've been looking for this since my "operational attrition" thread👇👇

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1506332019499974660

Russians destroying Ukrainian train lines means they are more worried about Ukrainian logistics in future operations than their own offensives.

That is, Russia is now more worried about what Ukraine is about to do to Russians than what they will do to Ukraine...in the Donbas
2/

To restate it, the Russians are on the logistical back foot in the Donbas.

This is directly in line with Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims that:

"Russian forces have enough supplies to last 'no more than three days'"
3/
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

Now add the following reports of food starvation in the Russian column N.W. of Kyiv.

4/

https://twitter.com/KraftTea/status/1506404249286152197

Videos of the Russian column N.W. of Kyiv having it's supply lines cut.
5/

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1506331299572817926

Reporters following up this video with the Ukrainian claims the column is now cut off.

6/

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

And US DoD reports of Russian conscripts suffering from frostbite.
7/

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1506326771142168580

And this paragraph from the UK Daily News piece:

Elsewhere, the Ukrainian think tank, The Centre for Defence Strategies claimed that Russian troops in the Okhtyrka region of Sumy 'left the area of operations' in order to 'choose desertion to avoid death' and in Havronshchyna,
8/

... in the Makariv district, that Russians had stolen cars to drive towards the border with Belarus.

That last line is the killer.

Conscripts & Chechens know driving to Belarus from the pocket near Kyiv is a firing squad offense for desertion in the heat of battle.

9/

Those had to be Russian General officers & their intel & signals staff bringing operational orders and Crypto gear to keep them from falling into Ukrainian hands.

So, we have passed the logistical inflection point of this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

10/

It is all downhill now for the Russian Army in Ukraine.

It will take three to four nights for Ukraine to digest this column N.W. of Kyiv.

Night because Ukraine has the advantage & will take fewer casualties attacking then.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1503871576726462468

11/

Then it will take about three days for Ukrainian mobile forces freed from Kyiv fighting (3 brigades?) to reach the South near Mariupol and launch counter-attacks there.

Yes, I've mentioned Ukraine is big.
12/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1501799542756368386

That will be enough to break through the Russian siege lines to both relieve & resupply the Azov Regiment & Ukrainian Naval Infantry garrison, plus open a corridor to move out civilians.

13/

In a little over a week to 10-days time Putin's dream of a Ukrainian land bridge to Crimea for a "Novorossiya" will be just as dead as most of his Army is in Ukraine.

14/End