Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 23 14 tweets 4 min read
Train Logistical🧵note the Russians are shelling Ukrainian train lines going to the Donbas.

This is a Russian battlefield "Admission Against Interest" regards their belief they will capture it anytime soon.

I've been looking for this since my "operational attrition" thread👇👇
Russians destroying Ukrainian train lines means they are more worried about Ukrainian logistics in future operations than their own offensives.

That is, Russia is now more worried about what Ukraine is about to do to Russians than what they will do to Ukraine...in the Donbas
2/
To restate it, the Russians are on the logistical back foot in the Donbas.

This is directly in line with Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims that:

"Russian forces have enough supplies to last 'no more than three days'"
3/
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Now add the following reports of food starvation in the Russian column N.W. of Kyiv.

4/
Videos of the Russian column N.W. of Kyiv having it's supply lines cut.
5/
Reporters following up this video with the Ukrainian claims the column is now cut off.

6/
And US DoD reports of Russian conscripts suffering from frostbite.
7/
And this paragraph from the UK Daily News piece:

Elsewhere, the Ukrainian think tank, The Centre for Defence Strategies claimed that Russian troops in the Okhtyrka region of Sumy 'left the area of operations' in order to 'choose desertion to avoid death' and in Havronshchyna,
8/
... in the Makariv district, that Russians had stolen cars to drive towards the border with Belarus.

That last line is the killer.

Conscripts & Chechens know driving to Belarus from the pocket near Kyiv is a firing squad offense for desertion in the heat of battle.

9/
Those had to be Russian General officers & their intel & signals staff bringing operational orders and Crypto gear to keep them from falling into Ukrainian hands.

So, we have passed the logistical inflection point of this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

10/
It is all downhill now for the Russian Army in Ukraine.

It will take three to four nights for Ukraine to digest this column N.W. of Kyiv.

Night because Ukraine has the advantage & will take fewer casualties attacking then.

11/
Then it will take about three days for Ukrainian mobile forces freed from Kyiv fighting (3 brigades?) to reach the South near Mariupol and launch counter-attacks there.

Yes, I've mentioned Ukraine is big.
12/
That will be enough to break through the Russian siege lines to both relieve & resupply the Azov Regiment & Ukrainian Naval Infantry garrison, plus open a corridor to move out civilians.

13/
In a little over a week to 10-days time Putin's dream of a Ukrainian land bridge to Crimea for a "Novorossiya" will be just as dead as most of his Army is in Ukraine.

14/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 24
@GRomePow 21 * 500= 10,500 missiles.

The US has only produced 45,000 Javelins since production began in the 1990's for all customers world wide.

It is 2022. The oldest stocks are over 20 years old and the US has a robust testing program randomly selecting missiles out of each production
@GRomePow lot.

Missile solid fuel engines age out at 10 years and require a careful depot level engine replacement plus electronics refresh.

The US does this as a matter of course, Congressional budget permitting, but most FMS customers do not.

2/
@GRomePow At most, 30,000 of that 45,000 are available somewhere in the world with about half being both in possession to the US military and available as warshot.

The US Army will not drain stocks from Indo-Pacific units, 18th Airborne Corps or the Stryker brigades.

That leaves the
3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 24
Alright folks, this is a logistical 🧵on pallets, cranes, ISO containers, and what we are _NOT_ seeing on Russian Trucks in Ukraine

Below is really good background tweet 🧵on the importance of pallets as a logistical productivity tool, since we are not seeing them in Ukraine
1/
and we should be seeing a whole lot of them.

Instead, we are seeing the Russian Army use two man carry break bulk boxes of mortar & artillery ammunition like this.

2/ Image
Pallets are fundamental to the mechanized movement of goods in a modern economy or military.

See:
"According to an article in a 1931 railway trade magazine, three days were required to unload a boxcar containing 13,000 cases of unpalletized canned goods. When the same
3/
Read 22 tweets
Mar 23
People are looking at the raw numbers here, 🧵look at the casualty ratio instead:
9861 Russian KIA
16,153 Russian WIA
The Russians have 37% KIA & 63% WIA, a 2 to 3 ratio.

This represents an utter collapse the Russian medical evacuation & treatment system. Note, no "missing"
1/
...or POW categories.

That lack of "Missing" & "POW" categories, which are standard in professional military casualty reporting, is a "poker tell" regards there being more Russian military casualties & losses.

There are a lot of small Russian columns wiped out by
2/
...Ukrainian forces.

There is no "Platinum 5-minutes," no "Golden hour" in the Russian Army.

Russian leaders simply do not care for the lives of the conscripts in their charge.

Compare that to 2 dead to 3 wounded ratio of the Russian Army to the between 1-to-7 and 1-to-10
3/
Read 10 tweets
Mar 21
Small 🧵This is an observation I will disagree with slightly in that the Russians have no choice but to keep putting Helicopters at Kherson.

They need helicopter air cover for truck resupply convoys so the Russian ground offensive can reach Odessa & supply the Mariupol attack
1/
Ukraine is doing to the Russian helicopters at Kherson what the IJN cruisers & battleships did to the USMC planes at Henderson Field on Guadalcanal in WW2.

2/ Image
This is why I keep repeating:

"Seldom are there things in war that have not happened before."

Failing logistics look the same war after war.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
This is a truck logistics history🧵that will point back to my "Russian truck fleet is junk in 6-to-8 weeks from operational attrition" startment.

These KamAZ trucks are the newest generation available to Russia.
kamazexport.com
1/
This is a ZIL-131HV truck.

Production of all versions of the ZIL military truck at the Moscow plant ended in 1990.

It is 2022. You are seeing a lot of these in Ukraine.👇
2/
autoweekvirtualgreencarshow.com/the-best-sovie…
You see a couple of dead ZIL trucks with this dead Russian Object 640 Black Eagle tank prototype in these Ukrainian battle damage assessment photos.
3/
reddit.com/r/TankPorn/com…
Read 11 tweets
Mar 20
Alright Lady's & Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread🧵 for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.

1/
In my now widely read thread on poorly maintained, cheap Chinese made, truck tires, I explained how Russia lost trucks & mobility by not maintaining tires.

This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition."

2/
That is, just by operating vehicles, you lose some of them because they break.

This gets a lot worse in combat. Each mile traveled by a military truck in war is between 10 and 20 miles wear. This is simple.

Truck drivers abuse trucks because they don't want to die.

3/
Read 17 tweets

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