Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 20 17 tweets 6 min read
Alright Lady's & Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread🧵 for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.

In my now widely read thread on poorly maintained, cheap Chinese made, truck tires, I explained how Russia lost trucks & mobility by not maintaining tires.

This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition."

That is, just by operating vehicles, you lose some of them because they break.

This gets a lot worse in combat. Each mile traveled by a military truck in war is between 10 and 20 miles wear. This is simple.

Truck drivers abuse trucks because they don't want to die.

I was associated with three US Army "Reset" programs in 2003 - 2008 to fix all the FMTV trucks that lived through a year of "Punch it Chewy."

My good friend at Sealy, Gilbert Duran, wrote an article about the 1st phase of the effort called:

Resetting the FMTV: the Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command Reset Program refurbishes FMTV trucks returning from Afghanistan and Iraq.

Yeah, long title, but authors in Army branch publications gotta do what they gotta do to get published.

As the low seniority DCMA guy I got to do induction inspections on IED blast damaged trucks like these.

None of those vehicles ran, but mainly because they had been picked over for parts

There were not that many miles on them, but goodness was there oil leaks, sludge, leaky radiators, carbon build ups & the suspensions were beat to h--l

Cab glass was noticeable by it's absence
This was in an Army that has professional NCO's that lived, breathed and ate preventive maintenance as a religious catechism.

And the US Army enforced rest periods for its truck drivers because it cared enough about having men & equipment future operations.

None of that is true for the Russian Army.

Most of the time between 2012 and 2022 the Russian Army did not maintain their trucks.

The Russians don't have a professional NCO Corps so they ARE NOT DOING IT NOW.

The overriding priority of Russian logistics is transporting artillery ammunition.

Every truck is being sent out in whatever condition, overloaded with ammunition.

The engines are running white hot and no one has checked the oil or other fluid levels, let alone does an oil change, in these last three weeks.

This Russian officer "Meet the Plan now" over everything else has real world consequences with tired drivers.

It's not just convoy chain reaction accidents.

Driver fall asleep at the wheel and do things like fall off bridges.

And running overloaded by artillery ammunition trucks through previously destroyed convoys like this are going to shred even good tires and catch road debris in CTIS and pneumatic brake hoses.

Plus driving through/around this takes more time.

And then there is the "conscript factor." Who do you think were towing the helicopters in this video? Russian conscripts, that's who.

What does that mean in a panicked evacuation?

They pulled those choppers as fast as they could get 15km of so

...out of artillery range. The choppers were trash at that point.

However, after that, those guys slowed the <bleep> down & took their time dragging those choppers to their drop off point so they had as much "safe time" as they could before the next artillery ammo run.
The cumulative effects of all these factors leads to horrendous levels of Russian Army Truck fleet operational attrition.

Short form: 6-to-8 weeks more fighting will deadline the entire Russian Army military truck fleet.
Between the end of April and Mid-May 2022, the Ukrainian Army will be able to counter-attack EVERYWHERE.

Because there will be NOWHERE more than 20 miles/30 km inside Ukraine where Russian troops won't be out of food and low on ammunition.


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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 21
Small 🧵This is an observation I will disagree with slightly in that the Russians have no choice but to keep putting Helicopters at Kherson.

They need helicopter air cover for truck resupply convoys so the Russian ground offensive can reach Odessa & supply the Mariupol attack
Ukraine is doing to the Russian helicopters at Kherson what the IJN cruisers & battleships did to the USMC planes at Henderson Field on Guadalcanal in WW2.

2/ Image
This is why I keep repeating:

"Seldom are there things in war that have not happened before."

Failing logistics look the same war after war.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
This is a truck logistics history🧵that will point back to my "Russian truck fleet is junk in 6-to-8 weeks from operational attrition" startment.

These KamAZ trucks are the newest generation available to Russia.
This is a ZIL-131HV truck.

Production of all versions of the ZIL military truck at the Moscow plant ended in 1990.

It is 2022. You are seeing a lot of these in Ukraine.👇
2/… Image
You see a couple of dead ZIL trucks with this dead Russian Object 640 Black Eagle tank prototype in these Ukrainian battle damage assessment photos.
3/… Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 19
Railway Logistical thread🧵

It seems the Belarus opposition has decided to kick Russia & the Russian supporting Belarus strongman in the logistical railway gonads.👇👇👇
There is foreign media confirmation of this Belarus railway sabotage.
There is now literally no chance of Russia pushing its northern column into Kyiv for almost a week.

There is now a massive "pig in a python" of Russian supply trains behind this rail line breakage, building up.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 18
Alright, new historical logistics thread🧵
based on this RFEL retweet below.

It will be a VERY grim thread laying a marker against future events.😖😖😖
There is a medical evacuation BMP in that Radio Free Europe video.

There is a part where the reporter is interviewing a Ukrainian talking about a mitten full of Ukrainian coins that Russian's looted.
Given that Ukrainian's stories from locals, my impression of the Russian Army northern column is that their foraging has reduced them to the same state as the Catholic armies of the Holy Roman Empire in Germany during the 30 years war (1618–1648).

Read 9 tweets
Mar 18
I said in a thread yesterday that the closer the Ukrainians get to Kherson air base, the more likely Russia would be forced out by Ukrainian Drone aimed artillery.

This video is an example of what I was talking about.

There are only two ways to occupy an runway such that it doesn't operate aircraft.

1. Your troops have boots on it.
2. You have eyes on it connected to artillery with authority to being down steel & explosive death

Drones let Ukraine's artillery see farther.

It is the
... Drone's "All seeing eye" which has changed war in Ukraine.

It has "Federalized" airpower to the lowest level so every ground commander has a little.

In fact, there is simply no way a single air force commander can control all these little drones over the battlefield.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 16
Alright, let's do a Ukraine War truck maintenance and design choices🧵

Look closely at the destroyed Russian trucks in this @RALee85 video.

Look at the wood debris on the road & the lack of truck beds on the burned out trucks. There is a reason for what you are seeing.
That reason is more visible with this still from an earlier video @RALee85 posted.

The majority of the Russian truck's cargo bed is made of wood planks.

This truck was hit by a small mortar shell that blew apart the wood. twisted down & severed the steel frame holding them.
2/ Image
The choice of a wooden truck bed was one made for cost reasons.

Wood is cheaper than steel.

Plus if your industrial quality tolerances are bad, it is easier to cut a wood plank to match than make another steel frame with the right fit.
Read 7 tweets

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