Alright Lady's & Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread🧵 for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.
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In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.
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In my now widely read thread on poorly maintained, cheap Chinese made, truck tires, I explained how Russia lost trucks & mobility by not maintaining tires.
This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition."
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This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition."
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944
That is, just by operating vehicles, you lose some of them because they break.
This gets a lot worse in combat. Each mile traveled by a military truck in war is between 10 and 20 miles wear. This is simple.
Truck drivers abuse trucks because they don't want to die.
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This gets a lot worse in combat. Each mile traveled by a military truck in war is between 10 and 20 miles wear. This is simple.
Truck drivers abuse trucks because they don't want to die.
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I was associated with three US Army "Reset" programs in 2003 - 2008 to fix all the FMTV trucks that lived through a year of "Punch it Chewy."
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My good friend at Sealy, Gilbert Duran, wrote an article about the 1st phase of the effort called:
Resetting the FMTV: the Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command Reset Program refurbishes FMTV trucks returning from Afghanistan and Iraq.
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thefreelibrary.com/Resetting+the+…
Resetting the FMTV: the Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command Reset Program refurbishes FMTV trucks returning from Afghanistan and Iraq.
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thefreelibrary.com/Resetting+the+…
Yeah, long title, but authors in Army branch publications gotta do what they gotta do to get published.
As the low seniority DCMA guy I got to do induction inspections on IED blast damaged trucks like these.
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As the low seniority DCMA guy I got to do induction inspections on IED blast damaged trucks like these.
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None of those vehicles ran, but mainly because they had been picked over for parts
There were not that many miles on them, but goodness was there oil leaks, sludge, leaky radiators, carbon build ups & the suspensions were beat to h--l
Cab glass was noticeable by it's absence
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There were not that many miles on them, but goodness was there oil leaks, sludge, leaky radiators, carbon build ups & the suspensions were beat to h--l
Cab glass was noticeable by it's absence
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This was in an Army that has professional NCO's that lived, breathed and ate preventive maintenance as a religious catechism.
And the US Army enforced rest periods for its truck drivers because it cared enough about having men & equipment future operations.
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And the US Army enforced rest periods for its truck drivers because it cared enough about having men & equipment future operations.
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None of that is true for the Russian Army.
Most of the time between 2012 and 2022 the Russian Army did not maintain their trucks.
The Russians don't have a professional NCO Corps so they ARE NOT DOING IT NOW.
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Most of the time between 2012 and 2022 the Russian Army did not maintain their trucks.
The Russians don't have a professional NCO Corps so they ARE NOT DOING IT NOW.
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The overriding priority of Russian logistics is transporting artillery ammunition.
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https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1501239972711567367
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Every truck is being sent out in whatever condition, overloaded with ammunition.
The engines are running white hot and no one has checked the oil or other fluid levels, let alone does an oil change, in these last three weeks.
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The engines are running white hot and no one has checked the oil or other fluid levels, let alone does an oil change, in these last three weeks.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1500599590420107264
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This Russian officer "Meet the Plan now" over everything else has real world consequences with tired drivers.
It's not just convoy chain reaction accidents.
Driver fall asleep at the wheel and do things like fall off bridges.
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It's not just convoy chain reaction accidents.
Driver fall asleep at the wheel and do things like fall off bridges.
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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1501294752741961732
And running overloaded by artillery ammunition trucks through previously destroyed convoys like this are going to shred even good tires and catch road debris in CTIS and pneumatic brake hoses.
Plus driving through/around this takes more time.
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Plus driving through/around this takes more time.
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1504521890345492484
And then there is the "conscript factor." Who do you think were towing the helicopters in this video? Russian conscripts, that's who.
What does that mean in a panicked evacuation?
They pulled those choppers as fast as they could get 15km of so
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What does that mean in a panicked evacuation?
They pulled those choppers as fast as they could get 15km of so
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1504920449515466760
...out of artillery range. The choppers were trash at that point.
However, after that, those guys slowed the <bleep> down & took their time dragging those choppers to their drop off point so they had as much "safe time" as they could before the next artillery ammo run.
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However, after that, those guys slowed the <bleep> down & took their time dragging those choppers to their drop off point so they had as much "safe time" as they could before the next artillery ammo run.
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The cumulative effects of all these factors leads to horrendous levels of Russian Army Truck fleet operational attrition.
Short form: 6-to-8 weeks more fighting will deadline the entire Russian Army military truck fleet.
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Short form: 6-to-8 weeks more fighting will deadline the entire Russian Army military truck fleet.
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Between the end of April and Mid-May 2022, the Ukrainian Army will be able to counter-attack EVERYWHERE.
Because there will be NOWHERE more than 20 miles/30 km inside Ukraine where Russian troops won't be out of food and low on ammunition.
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Because there will be NOWHERE more than 20 miles/30 km inside Ukraine where Russian troops won't be out of food and low on ammunition.
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