There is now literally no chance of Russia pushing its northern column into Kyiv for almost a week.
There is now a massive "pig in a python" of Russian supply trains behind this rail line breakage, building up. 3/
The Russians have prioritized moving artillery ammo over everything else.
Now there is a big empty followed by a huge build up of railway deliveries and the same number of stevadors to unload the trains. 4/
The Russians in Belarus are now in the same collapsing supply chain situation as the ports of LA & Long beach in unloading containers.
Ammo trains are sitting a waiting unloading.
This is why I'm saying no Russian offensive actions near Kyiv for a week. 5/
It will take that long to "pass the pig."
Russian Army forces near Kyiv are stuck on the defensive there until enough artillery ammo gets to them to back fill their defensive fires that are happening while they wait
6/
Plus build up to offensive ammo levels past their current deficit
7/End
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You see a couple of dead ZIL trucks with this dead Russian Object 640 Black Eagle tank prototype in these Ukrainian battle damage assessment photos. 3/ reddit.com/r/TankPorn/com…
Alright Lady's & Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread🧵 for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.
1/
In my now widely read thread on poorly maintained, cheap Chinese made, truck tires, I explained how Russia lost trucks & mobility by not maintaining tires.
This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition."
There is a medical evacuation BMP in that Radio Free Europe video.
There is a part where the reporter is interviewing a Ukrainian talking about a mitten full of Ukrainian coins that Russian's looted.
2/
Given that Ukrainian's stories from locals, my impression of the Russian Army northern column is that their foraging has reduced them to the same state as the Catholic armies of the Holy Roman Empire in Germany during the 30 years war (1618–1648).
I said in a thread yesterday that the closer the Ukrainians get to Kherson air base, the more likely Russia would be forced out by Ukrainian Drone aimed artillery.
This video is an example of what I was talking about.
This is an important WW1 history note vis-a-vis' Russian artillery use in Ukraine.
None of the Russian arty ammo stocks being used now in Ukraine were planned for by Putin's military, just like happened with the belligerents at the beginning of WW1.👇👇👇 1/
WW1 & WW2 history gives us some clues/signs to look for as to whether Russia has such shortages
o Reduced artillery use
o Much higher dud rate due to use of "time expired" ammunition whose propellent & explosives are unstable
o Substitution of mortars for heavier artillery
2/
And by "mortar substitution," I mean we will be seeing Russian made 240mm mortars in action.
Text via Strategy page
"This Russian 240mm mortar remains useful despite short range (about 9,700 meters) because it is accurate and effective at that range, 3/ strategypage.com/htmw/htart/art…