Railway Logistical thread🧵

It seems the Belarus opposition has decided to kick Russia & the Russian supporting Belarus strongman in the logistical railway gonads.👇👇👇
1/
There is foreign media confirmation of this Belarus railway sabotage.
2/
jpost.com/breaking-news/…
There is now literally no chance of Russia pushing its northern column into Kyiv for almost a week.

There is now a massive "pig in a python" of Russian supply trains behind this rail line breakage, building up.
3/
The Russians have prioritized moving artillery ammo over everything else.

Now there is a big empty followed by a huge build up of railway deliveries and the same number of stevadors to unload the trains.
4/
The Russians in Belarus are now in the same collapsing supply chain situation as the ports of LA & Long beach in unloading containers.

Ammo trains are sitting a waiting unloading.

This is why I'm saying no Russian offensive actions near Kyiv for a week.
5/
It will take that long to "pass the pig."

Russian Army forces near Kyiv are stuck on the defensive there until enough artillery ammo gets to them to back fill their defensive fires that are happening while they wait

6/
Plus build up to offensive ammo levels past their current deficit

7/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 21
This is a truck logistics history🧵that will point back to my "Russian truck fleet is junk in 6-to-8 weeks from operational attrition" startment.

These KamAZ trucks are the newest generation available to Russia.
kamazexport.com
1/
This is a ZIL-131HV truck.

Production of all versions of the ZIL military truck at the Moscow plant ended in 1990.

It is 2022. You are seeing a lot of these in Ukraine.👇
2/
autoweekvirtualgreencarshow.com/the-best-sovie… Image
You see a couple of dead ZIL trucks with this dead Russian Object 640 Black Eagle tank prototype in these Ukrainian battle damage assessment photos.
3/
reddit.com/r/TankPorn/com… Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 20
Alright Lady's & Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread🧵 for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.

1/
In my now widely read thread on poorly maintained, cheap Chinese made, truck tires, I explained how Russia lost trucks & mobility by not maintaining tires.

This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition."

2/
That is, just by operating vehicles, you lose some of them because they break.

This gets a lot worse in combat. Each mile traveled by a military truck in war is between 10 and 20 miles wear. This is simple.

Truck drivers abuse trucks because they don't want to die.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Mar 18
Alright, new historical logistics thread🧵
based on this RFEL retweet below.

It will be a VERY grim thread laying a marker against future events.😖😖😖
There is a medical evacuation BMP in that Radio Free Europe video.

There is a part where the reporter is interviewing a Ukrainian talking about a mitten full of Ukrainian coins that Russian's looted.
2/
Given that Ukrainian's stories from locals, my impression of the Russian Army northern column is that their foraging has reduced them to the same state as the Catholic armies of the Holy Roman Empire in Germany during the 30 years war (1618–1648).

3/
military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Thirty_Ye…
Read 9 tweets
Mar 18
I said in a thread yesterday that the closer the Ukrainians get to Kherson air base, the more likely Russia would be forced out by Ukrainian Drone aimed artillery.

This video is an example of what I was talking about.

1/
There are only two ways to occupy an runway such that it doesn't operate aircraft.

1. Your troops have boots on it.
2. You have eyes on it connected to artillery with authority to being down steel & explosive death

Drones let Ukraine's artillery see farther.

It is the
2/
... Drone's "All seeing eye" which has changed war in Ukraine.

It has "Federalized" airpower to the lowest level so every ground commander has a little.

In fact, there is simply no way a single air force commander can control all these little drones over the battlefield.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 16
Alright, let's do a Ukraine War truck maintenance and design choices🧵

Look closely at the destroyed Russian trucks in this @RALee85 video.

Look at the wood debris on the road & the lack of truck beds on the burned out trucks. There is a reason for what you are seeing.
1/
That reason is more visible with this still from an earlier video @RALee85 posted.

The majority of the Russian truck's cargo bed is made of wood planks.

This truck was hit by a small mortar shell that blew apart the wood. twisted down & severed the steel frame holding them.
2/ Image
The choice of a wooden truck bed was one made for cost reasons.

Wood is cheaper than steel.

Plus if your industrial quality tolerances are bad, it is easier to cut a wood plank to match than make another steel frame with the right fit.
3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 15
This is an important WW1 history note vis-a-vis' Russian artillery use in Ukraine.

None of the Russian arty ammo stocks being used now in Ukraine were planned for by Putin's military, just like happened with the belligerents at the beginning of WW1.👇👇👇
1/
WW1 & WW2 history gives us some clues/signs to look for as to whether Russia has such shortages

o Reduced artillery use
o Much higher dud rate due to use of "time expired" ammunition whose propellent & explosives are unstable
o Substitution of mortars for heavier artillery
2/
And by "mortar substitution," I mean we will be seeing Russian made 240mm mortars in action.

Text via Strategy page

"This Russian 240mm mortar remains useful despite short range (about 9,700 meters) because it is accurate and effective at that range,
3/
strategypage.com/htmw/htart/art…
Read 8 tweets

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