Thread by @DanLamothe

A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine has just concluded. It’s Day 28 since Russia’s invasion.

A few major takeaways:

In light of President Biden’s trip and NATO’s announcement that new battle groups will be going Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Hungary, several Qs were raised about possible new U.S. deployments.

Short answer: Pentagon isn't ruling it out, but not confirming anything today.

Pentagon asked to speak to NATO’s disclosure today that they assess 7K to 15K Russian soldiers killed in four weeks.

Senior defense official says he has not seen estimates “as high as NATO’s” but does not offer U.S. numbers. U.S. still has “low confidence” in their assessments.

As of today, Russia has now launched more than 1,200 missiles at Ukraine, senior defense official says.

“We still assess that they have the vast majority of their assembled available inventory of surface-to-air missiles and cruise missiles.”

Russian forces are roughly 15-20 km northwest of Kyiv’s city center, senior U.S. defense official says. They appear to be building defensive positions.

“What we’re starting to see now is they’re basically digging in.”

East of Kyiv, Ukrainians have driven Russia back some, senior defense official says.

At one point, they were 25 km away from city center there. Now they’re 55 km away.

Relatively static situation around Chernihiv, senior defense official says. Russians are 8 to 10 km from city center, and in some cases backing away a bit, he says.

Similar around Kharkiv. Pentagon assesses Russian forces are 15 to 25 km away from city center, outside the ring road surrounding the city. Fierce resistance there.

Pentagon observes that it appears Russia is putting increased emphasis on the Donbass area. They’re “starting to prioritize that part of eastern Ukraine,” senior defense official says.

Fierce fighting continues in Mariupol. Senior defense official says long-range Russian fires continue, with some Russian forces inside the city. “Certainly not the majority of them,” the official says.

Russians forces still appear to be repositioning outside Micholeiv, after failing to seize that city already, senior defense official says.

Russians now assessed to be 15 km to the southeast of the city center and 30 km to the east.

No additional naval shelling seen in the last 24 hours, senior defense official says. Pentagon observed that yesterday in Mariupol.

Air picture remains roughly the same. Russians still flying but carrying out “risk averse” aviation operations.

“They don’t stay in contested airspace very long,” senior defense official says.

On military assistance shipments: $350M package approved earlier this month just about all delivered.

Larger $800M shipment set to begin very soon, with weapons prioritized, senior defense official says.

No word when first tactical drones will be delivered.

The $800M package will take days to deliver.

"It’ll be a series of multiple flights over many days” to eastern Europe, official says.

“We are still able to get materiel into Ukraine using a variety of ground routes, and we have not seen those routes put to threat yet.”