THREAD on #Multivectorism [MV] in international relations - and #CentralAsia. It is full of chaotic thinking and five unanswered questions. Criticism and comments will be much appreciated.
Working imperative of [MV]: maintain positive or at least not-conflict relations with all relevant actors.
The main question: to what extent does the concept of balanced and diversified relationships overlap with “balanced and diversified external dependency”?
The main question: to what extent does the concept of balanced and diversified relationships overlap with “balanced and diversified external dependency”?
Assumptions about Central Asia:
A1: as land-locked, it is dependent on an external env
A2: main purpose of [MV]: avoid unilateral dependency
A3: to sustain the long-term [MV] policy, all relevant actors shall respect it and do not try to gain ultimate dominance.
A1: as land-locked, it is dependent on an external env
A2: main purpose of [MV]: avoid unilateral dependency
A3: to sustain the long-term [MV] policy, all relevant actors shall respect it and do not try to gain ultimate dominance.
Working model for this thread:
A country [C] has three neighboring states [N1, N2, N3]. They have diverse relations, for example, in security, economy, or culture. The government of [C] applies the [MV] principle to all of them.
A country [C] has three neighboring states [N1, N2, N3]. They have diverse relations, for example, in security, economy, or culture. The government of [C] applies the [MV] principle to all of them.
Sub-Question1: Do the multi-layer nature of international relations matter?
If the country [C] is strongly dependent on [N1] in the economy, can it still hold effective [MV] relations in the spheres of security or culture with the neighbors [N2] and [N3]? -->
If the country [C] is strongly dependent on [N1] in the economy, can it still hold effective [MV] relations in the spheres of security or culture with the neighbors [N2] and [N3]? -->
---> Or the dependency in one sphere ultimately undermines the [MV] policy as a whole? Is there any sphere of international relations with such utmost importance?
Sub-Question2: Where is the breaking point between “relations” and “dependency”?
If taken w/ the assumption A2: What if are all neighbours equally strong? What if one is stronger than all others combined? To what extent must the [MV] be balanced to remain effective?
If taken w/ the assumption A2: What if are all neighbours equally strong? What if one is stronger than all others combined? To what extent must the [MV] be balanced to remain effective?
Sub-Question3: Does the type of external dependency matter in maintaining [MV]?
What if [C] must import the crucial portion of goods from/through [N1-3], but its export is not threatened.
What if [C] does not need to import much but needs to export domestic production?
What if [C] must import the crucial portion of goods from/through [N1-3], but its export is not threatened.
What if [C] does not need to import much but needs to export domestic production?
Sub-Question4: is there any specific precondition of a successful [MV] policy?
Ultimately: non-violation of the assumption A3. But also, is there necessarily any comparative advantage? Size? Geographical location? Unique services (financial) offered or diplomatic role?
Ultimately: non-violation of the assumption A3. But also, is there necessarily any comparative advantage? Size? Geographical location? Unique services (financial) offered or diplomatic role?
@threadreaderapp please, unroll.
Everyone else - have a great day!
Everyone else - have a great day!
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