Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 22, 2022 14 tweets 10 min read Read on X
⚠️BA2 is now 34.9%

A wise mentor once taught me—whenever you see exponential change—#BA2—it’s safe to assume among 3 things:

📌Something new / different is driving it
📌It must be either faster/better/stronger
📌Something new will likely occur soon

Figure @DrWilliamKu #COVID19
2) this is now cases and hospitalization in UK which has been #BA2 dominant for many weeks. England hospitalizations is already approaching their December peak… and surged quite quickly after cases rose I might add (perhaps under testing during early surge?)
3) England lifted all restrictions on Feb 24th… cases surged again. This coincided with also #Ba2 surge. So England is having a double whammy of both dropping mitigation and BA2 at the same time. Way to effing go @BorisJohnson
4) another worrisome thing is that reinfection % rate has also begun to recently spike in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿— coinciding with the surge in BA2 and cases— Especially worrisome since UK is surging after a recent BA1 Omicron wave. This is the stuff that I ponder at night why.
5) Also fascinating is that in the 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 December #Omicron wave, hospitalization rate trailed cases and was about 2% of cases at the peak, but now it’s significantly outpacing 2% in the new surge. This may not mean it’s more severe—more likely cases are heavily under-diagnosed.
6) has testing dropped in the UK? Yes by quite a bit, but testing per capita in UK is still significantly higher than the US. UK wave is definitely real (cases surging despite testing dropping is usually a bad sign). But the quick surge in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 hospitalizations is very worrisome.
7) As #BA2 grows, it will displace the older variant. You will not see a surge until the new variant overtakes the old. This is why US isn’t surging overall yet because BA2 still under 50%. Wait for the crisscross—that’s when it plateaus & reverses.

Diagram by @GosiaGasperoPhD
8) however, there is a matter of both when the criss-cross of the old #BA1 vs new #BA2 variant will occur. Some think late March or early April. And there is debate how quickly uptick will be afterwards—spring outdoor friendly weather could slow it. But no mask can accelerate it.
9) Ontario 🇨🇦 just hit around ~50% #BA2 this week. So how are things looking in Ontario? Their wastewater is now showing #SARSCoV2 resurgence province-wide, right on cue. Wastewater increase almost always precedes case rise in 1-2 weeks. Data doesn’t lie.
covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
10) In the annals of history… don’t be the dismissive person who history looks back with scorn for having dismissed #COVID19 whenever clearly #CovidIsNotOver. Yet many believe act with arrogance 👇
11) Danish officials got arrogant about #BA2 and this is their epic failure. Not only COVID deaths increased but also EXCESS deaths increased substantially. That is an epic fail if you ignore BA2.
12) Speaking of COVID deaths… yes, #BA2 is now driving increased deaths again in the UK. But do we honestly need to wait to see deaths before we act damnit?!?!

Original data source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Figure complied by @JoePajak
13) Folks— Join our new COVID Precaution Community below… open to all.
14) as expected with surging #BA2… the next wave is upon us. We predicted late March for the cross crossing of BA2 passing BA1. It’s here.

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More from @DrEricDing

Nov 13
⚠️BREAKING—ICU Hospitalized human bird flu case in Canada now officially confirmed as H5N1. Worse, it is the same 2.3.4.4b virus clade (variant group) as the one found in BC🇨🇦 poultry and in Washington state🇺🇸! The hospitalized teenager (with no pre existing conditions) had no animal contact, does not live on farm, had “deterioration quite rapid” and now critical in ICU with ARDS. Canada officials says infectious period is 2 days **prior to symptoms** (ie asymptomatic transmission) and infectious up to 10 days.Image
2) Public Health Agency of Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg confirmed that the individual has avian influenza H5N1
canada.ca/en/public-heal…
3) details…

⚠️BAD UPDATE—BIRD FLU HOSPITALIZATION IN CANADIAN TEEN

Summary 🧵 of the live press conference with Canada’s British Columbia health officer.

📌The teen is in intensive care.
📌Condition is ARDS
📌Teen was healthy prior; no underlying conditions

bsky.app/profile/dreric…
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13
Trump’s incoming SECRETARY OF DEFENSE who doesn’t wash his hands and doesn’t believe in germs. Image
2) Trump’s new SECDEF is also in favor of committing war crimes. businessinsider.com/pete-hegseth-a…
3) Trump’s SECDEF pick is a wild character. And loves hawking merch.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 9
My god—Google Search for “what is a tariff” sudden spikes the DAY AFTER ELECTION DAY. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Image
2) many folks simply don’t understand what a tariff is — unless you explain it several times to them with analogies. Even then, it’s hard for many to grasp. Eg 👇
3) Ah shit… it’s now gotten worse. Why do so many people do their hw late??,
Read 6 tweets
Nov 6
📍HARRIS IS STILL AHEAD IN PA—in terms of votes yet to be counted. She’s still +2 of what is needed to win PA, given the outstanding votes still remaining in PA cities, according to @CBSNews @NorahODonnell Image
Image
Image
Harris has enough remaining in PA Philly suburbs to still win. Image
3) folks. The NYT needle is not reliable.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 31
Plastic cookware should not be used. Period. Especially BLACK PLASTIC cookware, that often mixes in toxic recycled electronic waste materials. DISPOSE OF ALL PLASTIC COOKWARE, especially if black colored plastic ones. Pass it on to your family.

Gift🎁🔗
theatlantic.com/health/archive…Image
2) Because optical sensors in recycling facilities can’t detect them, black-colored plastics are largely rejected from domestic-waste streams, resulting in a shortage of black base material for recycled plastic. So the demand for black plastic appears to be met “in no insignificant part” via recycled e-waste, according to Turner’s research. TV and computer casings, like the majority of the world’s plastic waste, tend to be recycled in informal waste economies with few regulations and end up remolded into consumer products, including ones, such as spatulas and slotted spoons, that come into contact with food.
3) You simply do not want flame retardants anywhere near your stir-fry. Flame retardants are typically not bound to the polymers to which they are added, making them a particular flight risk: They dislodge easily and make their way into the surrounding environment. And, indeed, another paper from 2018 found that flame retardants in black kitchen utensils readily migrate into hot cooking oil. The health concerns associated with those chemicals are well established: Some flame retardants are endocrine disruptors, which can interfere with the body’s hormonal system, and scientific literature suggests that they may be associated with a range of ailments, including thyroid disease, diabetes, and cancer. People with the highest blood levels of PBDEs, a class of flame retardants found in black plastic, had about a 300 percent increase in their risk of dying from cancer compared with people who had the lowest levels, according to a study released this year. In a separate study, published in a peer-reviewed journal this month, researchers from the advocacy group Toxic-Free Future and from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam found that, out of all of the consumer products they tested, kitchen utensils had some of the highest levels of flame retardants.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 29
⚠️MASK MANDATE RETURNING TO ALL NIH PATIENT CLINICS—Effective November 4, 2024, masking will be required in all patient care & waiting rooms. Furthermore, testing for COVID, flu A, flu B, and RSV will be required for all inpatients & rooming-in visitors.
cc.nih.gov/patient-servic…Image
Image
2) This means wearing a mask will be REQUIRED in all patient care areas, including waiting rooms. ➡️This change is due to an anticipated increase in COVID-19 and other respiratory virus activity in the community. 😷
3) I think people should stock up on COVID tests again. The Cheapest COVID test on the U.S. market is now as low as $1.50 with special promo code “COV20”… expiring Jan or March 2025.

store.pharmalynk.com/products/advin…Image
Read 6 tweets

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