Thread by @billroggio

1) France's Ministry of Armed Forces has been putting out daily assessments of the fighting in Ukraine (thanks for the heads up, @GrayConnolly).

defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-…

2) The Ministry of Armed Forces highlights 5 areas: Kiev, Kharkiv, Dnipro (the French rightly see this as a strategic point, as I have noted in the past), Mariupol, and Mykolaiv. I will summarize France's analysis of each area.

3) Kiev: The Russians have not completed the encirclement, the Ukrainians flooded the Irpin River to slow the Russians [smart move], and the Ukrainians have retaken the town of Makariv to the west of Kiev [nice win for the Ukrainians].

4) Kharkiv: the Russian continue to maneuver its forces in an attempt to encircle Ukraine's second largest city. Fighting there is intensifying.

5) Dnipro: Russian advances from the north and east of the city have slowed.
My note: Russian forces are still far from Dnipro, it is very likely an objective but if the Russians can take it, it is in the future, not the now.

6) Mariupol: The Ukrainians in the city have rejected Russian demands to surrender, the French expect an operation to take what remains of the city to commence soon.
My note: As of yesterday, Ukrainian forces controlled an area of about 6 square miles, give or take.

7) Mykolaiv: The French said the fighting in the areas surrounding the city is "intense" and Ukrainian forces are launching counter offensives in an attempt to block the Russian advance.

8) Below are my additional observations from the map: Russian forces appear to have set its sights on advancing northward on both the east and west side of the Dnieper River towards Dnipro. Russian forces are due south of Kryvyi Rih on the west and Zaporizhzhia on the east.

9) Russian forces from north Kharkiv front have linked up with forces from the Donbas front. If there are still Ukrainian troops in that northeastern corner in Luhansk, they have been encircled and are cut off from resupply.

10) The Ukrainian troops along the Donbas front are still in danger of being encircled. The Russian advance is slow, but it is advancing. Ukraine has a significant portion of its military tied up on the Donbas front and cannot afford to lose them. It would be a disaster.

11) Kiev is proving to be a tough nut to crack. The Ukrainians are pouring a lot of their resources to defend the capital city (understandably so). I've said this before: we have to consider the possibility that the Russians value the Black/Azov seas & the east more than Kiev.

12) But for the Russians to have full control of the Black Sea, they must take Odesa. And before that, Mykolaiv, which has been a problematic city. Cutting off the Black Sea would make Ukraine a land locked nation; this is without a doubt one of Russian's key objectives.