1) The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kiev & the fog of war. @nytimes: "... signs of actual, on the ground progress were elusive. Ukrainian forces have been unable to demonstrate they control villages or towns previously held by the Russian army." nytimes.com/live/2022/03/2…
2) The town of Irpin: "The deputy police chief of Irpin, Oleksandr Bogai, said Russian soldiers were still in the town, occupying several districts and fighting Ukrainian forces. That is essentially the same situation that has persisted for nearly the entire month of the war."
3) "In Makariv, another battleground town to the west of Kyiv that Ukrainian officials claimed to have recaptured this week, the fighting was also ongoing, Vadym Tokar, the mayor, said in a telephone interview."
4) "'I don’t understand where this nonsense came from,' he [Mayor Tokar] said of reports his town had been liberated. 'It is not true. We have shelling and we have Russian tanks shooting into the town right now.'"
5) "The head of the Kyiv regional military administration, Oleksandr Pavliuk, said Thursday that the counteroffensive had managed to 'improve positions' in Irpin and Makariv, but did not assert control."
6) One other piece of information, on Izium in the east, the status of which is unclear: "Russian forces have continued to make advances in eastern Ukraine, where its military claimed on Thursday to have captured Izyum, a provincial town in the Kharkiv region."
7) "Ukraine denied it was captured. Neither account could be independently confirmed."
8) Last week, the U.S. Department of Defense claimed the Russians were in control of Izium. Again, the fog of war.
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1) This is an unpopular view (an argument I made from the beginning) that gets you branded as pro-Putin, but it needs to be understood. The inability to discuss the warfighting without the basest level of emotionalism is blinding us to what is happening. newsweek.com/putins-bombers…
2) "If we merely convince ourselves that Russia is bombing indiscriminately, or [that] it is failing to inflict more harm because its personnel are not up to the task or because it is technically inept, then we are not seeing the real conflict."
3) "As of the past weekend, in 24 days of conflict, Russia has flown some 1,400 strike sorties and delivered almost 1,000 missiles (by contrast, the United States flew more sorties and delivered more weapons in the first day of the 2003 Iraq war)."
1) @SpencerGuard created "The Mini-Manual for the
Urban Defender." A must read for those interested in how to prepare for and execute an urban defense. @SpencerGuard puts this in terms that anyone can understand. Kudos.
2) Two weeks ago, I wrote a quick thread on the impact on civilians once the decision is made to defend cities. Once you go down that, all bets are off and civilian casualties will skyrocket. The Mini-Manual for the Urban Defender shows why this is true.
3) Once you understand how an urban defense is established and maintained, you will see why attackers often will make little distinction between military and civilian targets. This is because the defenders are using every building, street, alley, etc. as a fighting position.
2) The Ministry of Armed Forces highlights 5 areas: Kiev, Kharkiv, Dnipro (the French rightly see this as a strategic point, as I have noted in the past), Mariupol, and Mykolaiv. I will summarize France's analysis of each area.
3) Kiev: The Russians have not completed the encirclement, the Ukrainians flooded the Irpin River to slow the Russians [smart move], and the Ukrainians have retaken the town of Makariv to the west of Kiev [nice win for the Ukrainians].
1) Today's must read, by @TaskandPurpose's Andrew Milburn:
"Overconfidence may obscure for the Ukrainians one salient fact about this conflict: Time is not on their side.
2) Milburn notes that the Russians are adapting their tactics: "The Russians are already adapting, and by doing so are narrowing the Ukrainians’ tactical edge."
3) "The one-sided culling of Russian armored columns that characterized the opening days of the war, and kept YouTube subscribers around the world happy, are a thing of the past."
1) Interesting information on the control of the skies above Ukraine: @nytimes: "While experts have been puzzled by Russia’s failure to gain complete control over the Ukrainian skies, they are certainly dominant ..." nytimes.com/2022/03/19/wor…
2) "... --- Russian surface-to-air missile capabilities can reach anywhere in Ukraine, according to military analysts. Russia is believed to fly some 200 sorties per day while Ukraine flies five to 10."
3) In the first week of the war, it is not clear how many Russian strikes hit their targets, but Piotr Lukasiewicz, an analyst at Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based research institute, said that they did serious damage to Ukraine’s command and control centers."
1) The situation in Mariupol is grim. From @nytimes: "Street battles broke out in Mariupol ... as Russian troops and allied irregular forces moved into the city ..." nytimes.com/live/2022/03/1…
2) "Residents who fled the city in recent days have described scenes of dead bodies dotting the streets, widespread looting and the suffering endured by thousands who remain trapped without heat or water."
3) "Ukrainian government reported that its forces were outgunned, that attempts to provide air support had failed and that it had “temporarily” lost contact with the city’s officials."