Bill Roggio Profile picture
Mar 20 7 tweets 2 min read
1) The situation in Mariupol is grim. From @nytimes: "Street battles broke out in Mariupol ... as Russian troops and allied irregular forces moved into the city ..."
nytimes.com/live/2022/03/1…
2) "Residents who fled the city in recent days have described scenes of dead bodies dotting the streets, widespread looting and the suffering endured by thousands who remain trapped without heat or water."
3) "Ukrainian government reported that its forces were outgunned, that attempts to provide air support had failed and that it had “temporarily” lost contact with the city’s officials."
4) "A recently evacuated resident said friends and family who had remained in the city told her the Russian flag was already flying in some districts, and that there were tanks and non-Ukrainian soldiers on the streets."
5) "Sounding a note of resignation, an adviser to the Ukrainian president said on Friday, 'There is no chance for lifting the siege of Mariupol.'"
6) Clearly Russian troops have broken through the Ukrainian's defensive line, are occupying some districts in the city, and are attempting to defeat the remaining forces there.
7) The neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, which is part of the Ukrainian National Guard, is fighting there & has a headquarters in the city. Expect the Russians to give the Azov Battalion no quarter. This may prolong the fight & lead to greater civilian suffering. frontline.thehindu.com/dispatches/ukr…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Bill Roggio

Bill Roggio Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @billroggio

Mar 20
1) Interesting information on the control of the skies above Ukraine: @nytimes: "While experts have been puzzled by Russia’s failure to gain complete control over the Ukrainian skies, they are certainly dominant ..."
nytimes.com/2022/03/19/wor…
2) "... --- Russian surface-to-air missile capabilities can reach anywhere in Ukraine, according to military analysts. Russia is believed to fly some 200 sorties per day while Ukraine flies five to 10."
3) In the first week of the war, it is not clear how many Russian strikes hit their targets, but Piotr Lukasiewicz, an analyst at Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based research institute, said that they did serious damage to Ukraine’s command and control centers."
Read 12 tweets
Mar 19
1) Latest map from @nytimes. Accompanying analysis is similar to mine - the east is in danger of being encircled.
2) According to this map, the city of Chernihiv is now completely surrounded. Polohy is again marked as Russian controlled. Status of Izium is unclear, Pentagon said it was Russian controlled but Ukrainians deny this. Either way you can see how the Russians view its importance.
3) Additionally, Russian forces have punched through the defenses at Mariupol and are fighting in the city center. MOUT (military operations on urbanized terrain) is a nasty affair, you cannot set a timetable for how long the fighting will last.
nytimes.com/live/2022/03/1…
Read 6 tweets
Mar 18
1) My article at @DailyMailUK on Russia & the war in Ukraine. I've made many of the points in various Twitter threads, but the following part is new. While Russia may win in Ukraine (it may also lose), it has shown that is is not a serious conventional threat to NATO.
2) Quoting from the article. "While the information campaigns have clouded the reality of the situation on the ground, what has also become clear is that Russian military does not pose a conventional threat to NATO."
3) "Smaller, non-NATO members, such as Moldova, are not so lucky."

"Whatever successes the Russian military has had in Ukraine, the operation has exposed serious flaws in its ability to wage war against an adversary with advanced weaponry and sophisticated tactics."
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16
1) @nytimes most recent map illustrates many of the points made in yesterday's thread. However I think it understates Russian advances in the southeast. Polohy and the area around it is under Russian control.
2) Here is yesterday's update. I highlighted the importance of Izium and Dnipro. Add Kryvyi Rih to that list, which the Russians are pushing towards. If the Russians have success in Kryvyi Rih, it will open the back door to Dnipro and Zaporizhzha.
3) The @nytimes map shows how precarious the situation is in the northern part of the east. Russian troops have bypassed Kharkiv and are pushing into Izium, where there is fighting inside the town.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 15
1) A quick update on what is happening on the ground. Short answer, not a lot of movement by the Russians over the last several days, except in the east. The Russians appear to consolidating their lines/logistics for pushes against Kiev, and in the east and south. Map from @BBC
2) The Russians continue to attempt to push into the suburbs of Kiev, although it is unclear if these are probing attacks or full assaults. The Ukrainians continue to put up stiff resistance. The Russians appear to be increasing the shelling of the capital.
3) From @nytimes: "Vitali Klitschko (mayor of Kiev), announced a 35-hour curfew ... which has seen an intensification of Russian bombardment... residents are not allowed to move around the city except with special permission or to go to a bomb shelter."
Read 17 tweets
Mar 13
1) The Ukrainian military is training young men for three days, and putting them on the front lines. There is just no way you can teach a person how to be a soldier in 3 days, and expect him to survive what is to come. bbc.com/news/world-eur…
2) Some quotes from the @BBC article: "I got used to my gun. I learned how to shoot and how to act in the battle, also many other things that will be very crucial in the fight with the Russians."
3) "I feel much more confident than I was before, because we get enough knowledge in tactics, in martial arts, in tactical medicine and in how to do something on the battlefield."
Let's be clear, you cannot become even moderately proficient in any of those tasks in 3 days.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(