Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

1) Ukraine Strategy Thread--day 2. How we can tell it was pre-planned and thought out. Some people have asked how we know that Ukraine had such a thought out strategic plan. We cant be 100% sure, but there is pretty good evidence that they did. And we should start with airfields.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1507313491652362240

2) At the very start of the campaign the Russians undertook a military operation as if they were in a Sylvester Stallone film. In broad daylight they choppered in some of their best troops to seize Hostomel airfield, just outside Kyiv. nytimes.com/2022/02/24/wor…

3) If this attack had succeeded, it would have been hugely advantageous to the Russians. Given them a forward staging post on Kyiv's doorstep. And had the Ukrainians not prepared well, it might have succeeded.

4) However the Ukrainians here (and other places) have clearly understood the importance of depriving the Russians of forward airfields, and counterattacked almost immediately with a rapid reaction force (this does not happen by accident). coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-reta…

5) Indeed the Ukrainians understood how important the airstrip was, and had a plan in place in case it was attacked and put that plan into place immediately--to great effect.

6) Something similar has happened at another forward airfield the Russians did take early in the war, the one outside of Kherson (the one major city the Russian army has seized, though its present control is uncertain).

7) The Russians almost immediately tried to turn Kherson airport into a forward staging post for their attack helicopters. If it would have worked, it would have been very beneficial for them. However the Ukrainians knew the danger and prioritized wrecking the airfield.

8) Indeed the Ukrainians started wiping out many of the Russian helicopters based at Kherson almost as soon as they appeared. businessinsider.com/photo-destroye…

9) And when the Russians tried to deploy more helicopters to Kherson, the Ukrainians wiped many of those out again, to the point that the airfield became a millstone around Russian necks.

10) So from this indication, Ukrainian strategy was well-planned, well prioritized, and has worked to severely restrict Russian options. You don't have such a successful understanding of the value of airfields by accident.