NCAA #MarchMadness thread starts now!
(Sweet Sixteen)
EVERY GAME, EVERY ROUND
Here we go…
Again a HUGE shoutout to @matteise for his amazingly comprehensive Tournament Binder. Every stat in the history of mankind
22-15 Round of 64
8-8 Round of 32
Total 57%
ML bets up +0.5un
(Sweet Sixteen)
EVERY GAME, EVERY ROUND
Here we go…
Again a HUGE shoutout to @matteise for his amazingly comprehensive Tournament Binder. Every stat in the history of mankind
22-15 Round of 64
8-8 Round of 32
Total 57%
ML bets up +0.5un
1 Gonzaga -10 vs. 4 Arkansas
O/U 154.5
When favored by > 8pts, the #1 is 11-7 ATS compared to 5-6-1 ATS when < 5pts
When #1 faces team with KenPom better than 20th they are 18-12-2 ATS
When #1 scores > 70 (imp. total is 82.5), they are 23-10-1 ATS
The Pick: Gonzaga -10
O/U 154.5
When favored by > 8pts, the #1 is 11-7 ATS compared to 5-6-1 ATS when < 5pts
When #1 faces team with KenPom better than 20th they are 18-12-2 ATS
When #1 scores > 70 (imp. total is 82.5), they are 23-10-1 ATS
The Pick: Gonzaga -10
2 Villanova -5 vs. 11 Michigan
O/U 135
When favored by 5 or less, the #2 is 3-3-2 against non #3’s
When #2 plays a team with KenPom worse than 21st they are 6-9-1 ATS
When #2 plays against Tier 1 Conf, they are 13-16-1
The Pick: Michigan +5
O/U 135
When favored by 5 or less, the #2 is 3-3-2 against non #3’s
When #2 plays a team with KenPom worse than 21st they are 6-9-1 ATS
When #2 plays against Tier 1 Conf, they are 13-16-1
The Pick: Michigan +5
2 Duke vs. 3 Texas Tech -1
O/U 136
#2 vs. a team with a Top 10 KenPom is 3-3 SU
At Halftime, the #3 has led the #2 seed 11 times in 20 games
Everything is tight, this game should be a pickem 😉
The Pick: Texas Tech 1H -0.5, Full -1
O/U 136
#2 vs. a team with a Top 10 KenPom is 3-3 SU
At Halftime, the #3 has led the #2 seed 11 times in 20 games
Everything is tight, this game should be a pickem 😉
The Pick: Texas Tech 1H -0.5, Full -1
1 Arizona -1.5 vs. 5 Houston
O/U 146
When #1 is favored by < 5, they are 5-6-1 ATS
When #1 plays a team w/ KenPom better than 10th they are 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS
When #1 plays a Tier 2 school they are 3-7 ATS
This will be the game of the night
The Pick: Houston +1.5 & ML +105
O/U 146
When #1 is favored by < 5, they are 5-6-1 ATS
When #1 plays a team w/ KenPom better than 10th they are 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS
When #1 plays a Tier 2 school they are 3-7 ATS
This will be the game of the night
The Pick: Houston +1.5 & ML +105
3 Purdue -12.5 vs. 15 St. Peter’s
O/U 134
When #3 is favored by > 5pts, they are 4-1 SU & 1-4 ATS
When #3 has KenPom more than 15 spots better, they are 6-1 SU & 3-4 ATS
When #3 plays team with AdjDefEff better than 40th they are 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS
The Pick: St. Peter’s +12.5
O/U 134
When #3 is favored by > 5pts, they are 4-1 SU & 1-4 ATS
When #3 has KenPom more than 15 spots better, they are 6-1 SU & 3-4 ATS
When #3 plays team with AdjDefEff better than 40th they are 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS
The Pick: St. Peter’s +12.5
1 Kansas -7.5 vs. 4 Providence
O/U 141.5
When #1 is favored by > 5 and < 8, they are 12-8-1 ATS
When both are from Tier 1, and lower seed has KenPom worse than 25th, the #1 is 6-0 SU and avg. MOV is 14
When both from Tier 1, the #1 is 21-14-1 ATS
The Pick: Kansas -7.5
O/U 141.5
When #1 is favored by > 5 and < 8, they are 12-8-1 ATS
When both are from Tier 1, and lower seed has KenPom worse than 25th, the #1 is 6-0 SU and avg. MOV is 14
When both from Tier 1, the #1 is 21-14-1 ATS
The Pick: Kansas -7.5
4 UCLA -2 vs. 8 North Carolina
O/U 141.5
This matchup doesn’t happen a whole lot, so not much data
When I’m doubt, bet the over 😉
The Pick: O141.5, sprinkle the UCLA -2
O/U 141.5
This matchup doesn’t happen a whole lot, so not much data
When I’m doubt, bet the over 😉
The Pick: O141.5, sprinkle the UCLA -2
10 Miami -2.5 vs. 11 Iowa State
O/U 133
Only the 4th meeting between these seeds. So again no real trends here
I would say that a -140 ML bet is probably a bit safer than a -2.5 bet here. If you can find -135, even better
The Pick: Miami ML -140
O/U 133
Only the 4th meeting between these seeds. So again no real trends here
I would say that a -140 ML bet is probably a bit safer than a -2.5 bet here. If you can find -135, even better
The Pick: Miami ML -140
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