Sophie Pornschlegel

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Mar 25 • 13 tweets • 6 min read

Amid all the hustle and bustle, it's hard to keep track of what actually happened yesterday in Brussels. Here are some takeaways from the diplomatic showdown (NATO, G7, EUCO) including @POTUS attendance & @ZelenskyyUa speeches. A 🧵 /1

First, HR news: @CharlesMichel was re-elected EUCO President for another 2,5 years; @jensstoltenberg's mandate was extended by a year as NATO Secretary-General. /2 politico.eu/article/charle…

Second, NATO news: NATO agreed on 4 new battlegroups on its "Eastern flank". In total, 40,000 soldiers stationed next to the border. More resources will be spent to prevent cyberattacks & to prepare for potential biological & chemical attacks./3 nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…

Third, G7 news: Not sure if I missed something, but not much to report. Leaders agreed to set up a watchdog to stop sanctions avoidance, but it's not quite clear how this should work. /4 consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…

Fourth, EUCO news: As @potus attended, EU leaders agreed on a more efficient discussion format - no 27 speeches at the tour de table, but speaking as representatives of groups. Smart format if you ask me. /5

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1506715242365136896

EUCO continues today - here are the first conclusions after yesterday's session 👇 /6 consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…

Sanctions news: The EU is currently preparing its 5th sanctions package, mostly to strengthen existing ones. EU leaders are tip-toeing around a Russian oil & gas import ban, although this would be the most effective sanction so far. /7

Amongst others, 🇩🇪🇳🇱🇭🇺 fear that it will hurt their economies - and dramatically increase domestic energy prices. There are different options though 👇/8

https://twitter.com/jaemmanouilidis/status/1507054831378341889

On sanction effectiveness: The Russian economy is not doing well (no foreign reserves access, ruble plunging, inflation up); financing the "war machine" will be more difficult for 🇷🇺 thanks to sanctions, but not impossible. Overall: unlikely that sanctions will make Putin stop./9

Energy news: #REPowerEU should reduce the oil & gas dependency asap & fully until 2030. Alternatives are other fossil fuel sources (🇳🇴🇩🇿 & 🇺🇸 LNG) & other energy sources (coal, nuclear, renewables). Hope leaders won't forget #climateneutrality goals. /10 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

EU accession news: In his #EUCO speech yesterday, @ZelenskyyUa emphasised his bid for EU accession, currently examined by the Commission. Unlikely to happen quickly, as some EU leaders do not want to politicise the procedure (for good reasons imho). /11 politico.eu/article/eu-lea…

Conclusion: Leaders currently have to balance between responding strongly to Russia's war of agression & avoiding further escalation - all that while dealing with the economic consequences of sanctions & rethinking the EU's security architecture. Just that./12

All that to say: #Zeitenwende needs to be kept up beyond first response. This will also be a balancing act between unity & ambition for EU leaders, who need to defend our common interests while ensuring our fundamental values (e.g. RoL) are uphold. /13

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More from @spornschlegel

Sophie Pornschlegel

Sep 30, 2020

My two cents on the latest EU RoL. I expected to write about the report's content, but ended up doing a political analysis of where we stand - bc in the end, the report can be a brilliant analysis, beautifully written and very thorough, the question is what we do with it. /1

First, let me emphasise that this is a positive development. The European Commission recognises the relevance of Rule of Law, analysing the situation in all EU27. Glass half full, but it could have been different. It is a first step in the right direction. /2

The annual report creates the evidence needed to assess the RoL situation. We already had ample information on some EU MS (heads up to the EP & CoE), but not on all - this EU27 report allows to say “we looked at everyone the same way”. Evidence is always good start for PM. /3

Sophie Pornschlegel

Sep 29, 2020

There's been quite a few new development when it comes to Rule of Law in the EU lately. Here's an overview in no particular chronological order.

1) Leading academics are putting pressure on @vonderleyen to let her words in #SOTEU speech turn into action: verfassungsblog.de/before-its-too…

2) Orbán wants @VeraJourova to resign because she "insulted" Hungary in a @derspiegel interview (aka said there were some real issues with rule of law in Hungary). politico.eu/article/hungar…

3) @EU2020DE is negotiating an "anti-corruption clause" for the recovery fund, trying to get around Hungary and Poland's rejection of a RoL mechanism that would sanction countries breaching EU values more broadly. I hope this won't be watered down any further. @MiRo_SPD

Sophie Pornschlegel

Sep 27, 2020

A relatively niche but crucial area in which EU really need to create a common framework: TAXES. I have experienced first-hand how incredibly old-school and uncoordinated European tax regimes are - and how utterly contradictory it is with freedom of movement. A thread. /1

Everyone knows, there are no common tax rules in the EU (beware, it's nat. sovereignty!) This means that despite freedom of movement, it is difficult to understand under which tax regime one falls, e.g. when someone has different incomes from two different EU member states. /2

An example: Belgium and Germany have signed a tax treaty in 1967 (!), which has been slightly amended still - but most of the treaty still remains valid until now. No need to mention that the labour market, jobs and work environments have *slightly* changed since then. /3

Sophie Pornschlegel

Aug 27, 2020

Back from holidays and lost in translation? Here's a quick overview of what happened in EU politics when you all where enjoying rosé on the Côte d'Azur, Italian pasta or simply walks in the countryside.

COVID-19 is still going strong - local outbreaks & rising infection rates are worrisome. But incomprehensible and ever-changing rules for quarantine and testing are not helping either (#colourcodes). EU countries can do better than this.

This summer, Brussels discovered a neighbouring country called Belarus and the fact that Lukashenka is a dictator since 1994 (better late than never?) The all-female opposition & protesters show incredible courage. Let's hope EU leaders will not play-act their support.

Sophie Pornschlegel

Jul 20, 2020

Historical #EUCO meeting reconvening later this afternoon on Day 4. A few thoughts on those marathon negotiations. THREAD
1) Frugal4 are 5 w/ 🇫🇮 & 3 of them are Socialdemocrats. So much abt socdem’s EU attitude. Also once again shows the lack of coherence among European parties.

2) Conflicts between N-S (governance, size) & E-W (RoL) show the urgent need for EU reforms. National governments do *not* necessarily have European interests in mind. They need to sell their results to national electorates. This has harmful consequences for 🇪🇺 as whole.

3) Bad deal or no deal? Muddling through is typical for EU - question whether it will be downwards or upwards. Better to reconvene later than get out of this summit w/ bad deal (e.g. too little money for South & “modern” priorities in MFF, no RoL clause)

Sophie Pornschlegel

Jul 6, 2020

Last week was busy in European politics. Here's what happened:
- 🇫🇷 got a new PM, until then an unknown "technicien": @JeanCASTEX. He should give #Macron a new push in the next 2 years before 2022 pres. elections. The rest of the new Cabinet will be announced today. /1

- Results of 🇫🇷 municipal elections show push for Green @EELV & left-wing groupings. Several big cities are now in new hands, such as Marseille, Strasbourg, Lyon. @LarEm lost - importance of alliances once again confirmed in France's fragmented party landscape. /2

- Meanwhile in Brussels: Germany took over the 🇪🇺 Council Presidency for 6 months, amidst a global pandemic. Tldr: Big expectations, little time. If they fail, we'll look at a rather gloomy future for the EU. /3

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