⚠️Holy moly—Gosh, 6-9% of all people across England Scotland Wales N Ireland tested newly positive for #COVID19 in just 1 week!!! Wowzers. 97-99% of people in 🇬🇧 already had antibodies. #BA2 reinfection is real. Hospitalizations surging. Don’t play games.
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
2) so is this reinfection wave driven by #Ba2 subvariant? Hell yes the increase is driven by almost all BA2 in England Wales Scotland. #CovidIsNotOver
https://twitter.com/joepajak/status/1507341041103425547
3) Show me hospitalizations surging in England under the #BA2 wave… here it is—it’s about to surpass the old Omicron wave already! And hospitalizations are surging across all major groups.
Figure by @Antonio_Caramia
Figure by @Antonio_Caramia
4) But but but what about deaths??? Yes, #COVID19 deaths are now surging too in England 🏴. Up 22% in just one week! And it’s still very early since lag time hasn’t caught up yet for most of the recent case increase. Also 30 day death doesn’t capture all deaths.
5) And crap crap crap— new hospitalizations among those age 65-84 and 85+ have now SURPASSED OLD OMICRON PEAK!!! So anyone telling you this #BA2 wave in England 🏴 will be “mild” is absolutely lying to you. The hospital data doesn’t lie.
Figures by @Antonio_Caramia
Figures by @Antonio_Caramia
6) But but but… what about kids? Are kids being hospitalized a lot too? Yes—it’s surging by a lot in both younger kids and older kids in England 🏴. Pediatric #COVID19 hospitalizations have roughly DOUBLED in just 3 weeks!
Figure by @Antonio_Caramia
Figure by @Antonio_Caramia
7) UK 🇬🇧 is swamped by #BA2 subvariant now. But US 🇺🇸 is still just 35% BA2 last week. But are cases are already turning around from their earlier sharp decline in major states and now reversing and upticking already even before BA2 is dominant. That’s a bad sign.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1506851964054917120
8) I worry about when
BA2 cases will “criss-cross” with the older declining BA1 variant(s). When BA2 crosses the 50-60% threshold, cases will take off in the US. It already has in many areas.
BA2 cases will “criss-cross” with the older declining BA1 variant(s). When BA2 crosses the 50-60% threshold, cases will take off in the US. It already has in many areas.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1506416739441168388
9) And indeed, reinfections are climbing again. #Ba2 is basically old-armor piercing. That’s bad considering how many govt have dropped mitigations.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1506427492411879432
10) #BA2 is much more infectious. One way to see it is in the SECONDARY ATTACK RATES— how many close contacts get infected from an initial person? BA2 has a much higher secondary attack rate. This will spur larger outbreaks. Hence where we are. Dropping mitigations bad idea too.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1501246502622175234
11) that said, The good news is that #BA2 responds to Boosters as well as BA1. 90-95% protection against hospitalization. However 2 shots “basic” vax isn’t enough anymore versus Omicron—protection now only 70-79% depending on agent group. ➡️Note—70% is 3x worse than 90% inverted.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1500643406380425220
12) Don’t think Canada will be spared. They just passed 50% #Ba2 in Ontario and now coronavirus wastewater surging as predicted. This is the first sign of trouble. Hope Canada 🇨🇦 doesn’t follow what England 🏴 did.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1507034903271120896
13) And let’s check in on UK 🇬🇧’s neighbor Ireland 🇮🇪… yup… hospitalizations surging in Ireland too — and even OUTPACING recent BA1 old Omicron wave already!!! Their hospitalizations never came down much — they are having a wave atop another wave. 😢
https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1507171489321082882
14) I want people to be precautious. To stop the pandemic, we need more empathy for kids and for the vulnerable. That’s why we created a “COVID PRECAUTION COMMUNITY” that anyone can join. But please be kind, no misinfo, nor mass infection please. twitter.com/i/communities/…
15) Hospitalizations are also increasing in Australia at an alarming rate. It’s also BA2.
Figure by @DrWilliamKu
Figure by @DrWilliamKu
16) What the heck is this #BA2? This is a lay short summary video of BA2 from last week. #BA2 honestly deserves its own Greek letter— c’mon @WHO. #CovidIsNotOver
HT @lindseytheis #COVID19
HT @lindseytheis #COVID19
17) this is jarring…. There are now MORE kids getting hospitalized last week among age 0-5 than kids 6-17!!! Someone noticed that earlier. There’s way more kids 6-17 than 0-5 in England, yet there’s more 0-5 hospitalizations. Why? Vaccines unavailable yet for youngest kids. 😢
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1507351907404292097
18) Just stare 👀 at this graph on infection attack rates of #BA2 (red) versus old BA1 (blue) or Delta variant (purple). The new #Ba2 absolutely deserves its own Greek letter variant of concern. But @WHO so far is refusing to reclassify it as a new VOC. It’s time. #CovidIsNotOver
19) Ominous—experts now believe that the coming US wave could be even worse — “far more lethal” says WB expert @fibke — in the U.S. than in Europe soon. Hope he is wrong. But we should prepare and be precautious.
https://twitter.com/fibke/status/1505807130363895811
20) updated COVID guidelines just released by @TheWHN - follow for more.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1507719131772108809
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