@intel_jakal Profile picture
Mar 27, 2022 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Have been working through $CEL #celsiusnetwork's $750m Series B round. Will share #googlesheets file tomorrow. Here's a preview.
3 Dec 2021 #Celsius resolved to issue up-to 36,930 Series B shares at a price of US$20,469 per share. As at 2 Feb 2022 total of 32,182 Series B shares had been issued. I'm presuming #bnktothefuture will have closed out the balance. Image
The #Celsius Cap table (as at 2 Feb) with pre/post money for each issue. Image
#tether have done well out of their investment in #celsiusnetwork
Their total investment of US$63m post Series B is valued at US$245m an uplift of $182m (3.9x) Image
#westcap and CDP invested just shy of $590m for what is essentially a minority stake.....they have a bunch of rights sown into the articles. Which I'll go through tomorrow. But net for net they have been (in my opinion) far more generous than they should have. Image
What's pretty clear is that the generous valuation is at least in part based on the belief that #Celsius can be flipped into a #SPAC or #IPO Image
Image
The Lead investors have set hurdle rate for the liquidity event at 1.5x their Series B investment - which equates to pricing a SPAC reverse at US$4.8Billion....Following announcement of the series B Mashinsky was blowing his trumpet that Celsius would be worth 7.5-10B next round. Image
btw I'm NOT a fan of #celsius I believe a) their model is flawed and un-sustainable; b) marketing is wholly misrepresentative; c) $CEL its so tightly held and controlled it does not meet the definition of a market...

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More from @intel_jakal

Jul 29
mate its absolutely achievable. I've done the numbers.
There are only 2 critical success factors;
1. Bitcoin goes to $23m per coin by 2045;
2. A visionary buyer that has accumulated > $20T and has confidence that even after 20 years of 34% CAGR providing the seller with a 350x bagger, that there's sufficient upside to warrant acquiring 1m bitcoin for > $20T.
The analysis;
Current US GDP $29.33T, Debt $35.49T
Using World bank forecast GDP growth of 1.9% and assuming the debt ratio stays the same
2045 debt will be a spritely $51.71B

Just for good measure here's the GDP and debt numbers for the Top 20.
Even after the 50% debt reduction, the US will still have the largest debt of all countries.Image
For the purpose of the analysis I've distilled the Lummis plan down to;
Buy 1m BTC for $70B using existing cash reserves.
Exit all or part of BTC holdings by 2045 to payout half the total debt.
In estimating how much of the investment would be required to settle 50% of the debt.
Two scenarios: Pessimistic (sell down 100%) and probable (sell down 50% ).Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 27
So for months I've been asking the question.
Who is behind the unnamed "private sector" group who are being given prioritised access to delivering food and supplies into #gaza.


Image
I am suprised that literally no one appears to be looking into who this un-named collective that has delivered 25% of all 'goods and services' into #gaza.
I say G&S and not #humanitarianaid as these are commercial arranagements. Not for the starving or needy just for those that can pay.Image
The previous pie chart falls well short of actually what's happening with the shift to these unknown private groups.
When you look at the data over the last 3 months. Private groups are > 50% and increasing volumes month to month while total deliveries are decreasing.
July they are at 75% of total.Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 8
Here's a little #googlesheet #osint tool I made.
is the best free #whois history service.
But it works even better if you use its #API (which starts at $2 pay as go). Whoxy.com
Image
To make it easy to use. I created a googlesheet using the importjson script.
The whoxyAPI provides 5 search functions;
Whois, whois history, email, person, keyword saerch Image
First make sure you create a copy of the file. Image
Read 8 tweets
May 4
@RepMikeCollins No problem with racism.
@RepMikeCollins No problem with tasering student while handcuffed.
In fact you seem so proud of that you thought it was worth cheering on.
Was it because he was a student? Or because he was protesting? or because he was black? Image
@RepMikeCollins Not sure what your laws are down in Georgia.
But here is a police department recommendation report from Stanford that gives some pretty clear guidelines when a Taser can be used.
So why would cheer on someone getting tasered while handcuffed expressing his First amendment right? Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 10
@MahyarTousi Have you read the survey and polling data? (probably not as it's not that easy to find).
An online survey of 1,000 (out of 4m) that was completed over 30 days.
@MahyarTousi The period the survey was conducted was Feb/Mar 2024 quite a few events - 2 weeks before ICJ 'plausable' statement, right in the middle was the flour massacre.
Lets put aside the likely changing views over the survey period and the whofully inadequte size of the poll.
This statement and variants have been circulating for days without reference to the actual data;
"Just a reminder that almost half of the Muslims in Britain have openly shown sympathy for Hamas in the latest data."

So lets look at the data.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 25
I think the strategy is much more nefarious. They are going to flood aid into Northern Gaza and make it difficult for UNRWA and other agencies to deliver aid to the balance of Gaza. Northern Gaza's famine risk classification will fall and the balance of Gaza will rise. They will use those statistics to justify their claims that it was never them that caused the crisis it was always UNRWA.
looking at this in more detail its appears that the Northern Gaza strategy has been in play for quite sometime.
I'm not sure of the exact location of the pier than has been constructued there is no doubt that it will be on the Northern side of #highway749 which now seperates north and south Gaza.

Following the removal @unrwa's access to Northern Gaza we will see a new 'free-flowing' crossing established which will no doubt have the highest thruput of all crossings.

The IDF have already made statements about the intended flow of aid from the jetty is to be for North Gaza and that is to be operational within weeks after the new crossing is opened.Image
meanwhile south of #highway749 is going to be decimated and if that wasn't obvious yesterday it will be tomorrow. #deiralbalah is under attack right now. Image
Read 5 tweets

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