Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 30-32: The past 72 hours has seen Ukrainian forces continue to conduct localized counterattacks in the Kyiv area, Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv & Izium. Russian forces continue to press in the Donbass & Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine

2/ Today’s update will focus areas that have seen significant activity in the last 72 hrs, namely Kyiv, Sumy, the Donbas, Mariupol. Note, my last update erroneously placed the attack of Russian warships in the Mariupol area, this was a map error. The attack occurred in Beriansk.

3/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries reach 5 million, with 6.5 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Civilian suffering in many Ukrainian cities continue to reach new depths of inhumanity and cruelty. Although international aid increases, suffering persists.

4/ Weather assessment. Forecasted rain and wintery mix for 5 of the next 10 days will adversely affect aerospace and ground operations, potentially slowing down offensive momentum. Temperatures generally will remain between 15/-2 C.

5/ Kyiv Front. Ukrainian forces continue to press counterattacks west of Kyiv in Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, Borodyanka, Andrivka, and Makariv. East of Kyiv Ukrainian forces have recaptured Luk’yanivka, forcing most of the Russian forces in the area to retreat.

6/ Kyiv AO. Kyiv has most likely shifted in importance from a strategic decisive point Russia seeks to seize to a political objective point Russia will contain. Maintaining pressure on Kyiv denies Uk force in the east, a front that holds greater chance for Russian success.

7/ Sumy Front. Russian forces are unable to ensure the unimpeded flow of supplies and reinforcements throughout the Sumy Oblast. There are numerous unsubstantiated reports that Russian forces may be withdrawing forces from the Sumy area. #Sumy

8/ Sumy AO. It is unknown if these reports indicate a shifting of Russian forces in response to Ukrainian counterattacks, or they constitute a move to drastically alter Russian disposition in the Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts to reinforce success or create opportunity on other fronts.

9/ Donbas Front assessment. Russian forces continue to try and advance past southern Izium, but localized Ukrainian counterattacks have been able to contain them to Izium. Further west Ukrainian force have recaptured that Novovorontsovka (SE of Kryvyi Rih). #Kharkiv #Donbas

10/ Mariupol. The Russian forces continue to press deeper into Mariupol. It is possible that the city defenses may soon be bisected by Russian forces advancing from east to west. Social media reporting continues to document the intense indiscriminate targeting of Mariupol.

11/ Aerospace Assessment. Over the past 72 hrs. the UAF states it has destroyed 18 Russian air targets: 1x fighter, 12x UAVs, 5x cruise missiles. VKS continues to increase the pace and extent of its strikes throughout Ukraine to break the UAF and IADs.

https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1508202969497493514?s=20&t=00eYcxZyN2URpAXQfOeNlA

12/ In this interview, UAF pilots’ detail that they have been able to retain contested control of Ukrainian airspace except in areas like Mariupol. The pilots state there is good integration between fighters and IADs, but Russia does have better equipment.

https://twitter.com/JohnBerman/status/1506949723739111424?s=20&t=00eYcxZyN2URpAXQfOeNlA

13/ Information War. There has been a lot of commentary on the recent Russian General Staff briefing. While a good part of this brief was no doubt strategic messaging to a domestic audience, I think it is unwise to dismiss the brief in its entirety.

https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1507400322829930500?s=20&t=00eYcxZyN2URpAXQfOeNlA

14/ I will not go into much depth on it here, as I am incorporating more extensive thoughts for a later date. But I do want to address a few points as objectively as it is possible from a Western point of view.

15/ First, there is a lot about the brief that is misleading and not true. Namely the claims of Ukrainian equipment destroyed (unverifiable), statements about not targeting civilians, Russian & Ukrainian casualty figures, the accuracy of Russian PGMs, etc.

16/ These exaggerated / false comments are not surprises, and therefore should not be of immense importance at this moment for analysis, though in themselves they do relieve a lot about how Russia views / will ultimately frame their theory of victory.

17/ Of more importance is the apparent emphasis being placed on the Donbas. Securing the DPR & LPR Oblast administrative borders is a stated war aim of the Kremlin, as indicated by Putin in his speech of 23 February.

18/ With the failed attempt to take Kyiv in the opening week of the war to install a puppet government it could “negotiate” with to impose its political will on Ukraine, it is clear the Kremlin seeks to achieve the conquest of the Donetsk & Luhansk Oblast.

19/ This aligns with Russian ongoing attempts to establish a “Kherson People’s Republic”, which is an obvious attempt to revive the Novorossiya Project. This will more than likely become the focus of Russian operations.

20/ Russian forces will continue to tie down Ukrainian forces before Kyiv, in NE Ukraine, and before Kharkiv, however the focus of major offensive action will be in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. I will expand more on this soon.

21/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian losses in equipment continue to mount at a pace that is hard for repair and replacements to match. The Russian military has established a major resupply and refurbishment site in the Bryansk Oblast.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1507812557817589776?s=20&t=00eYcxZyN2URpAXQfOeNlA

22/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

23/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.