Thread by @SGriffin_Lab

So, lots of vilification and even gloating (by some insufferable 💩s) at various countries now suffering dreadful omicron waves after having previously suppressed the virus and adopting a so-called #ZeroCovid strategy. One or two thoughts/observations.
1. "Told you so" really

isn't an appealing trait, whether you're actually right, or not...especially when you're discussing human suffering. Grow up, and grow a conscience.

2. The only people that use the zero term nowadays generally "were not fans" in the first place.

3. Being in favour of

suppressing virus spread ≠ lockdowns and ≠ zero C. We all recognise the game changing role that vaccines play, but they shouldn't be the only act in town.

4. Most hitherto "zero" countries had varying approaches, but almost all waves are coincident with relaxing protections.

5. This is understandable given the incredible transmissibility of Omicron which, remember, is ONLY less severe (in adults) cf delta for highly vaccinated populations. If you haven't got high 90s% in vulnerable populations then this is bad news...expect this is an issue in HK 😥

6. Even in our own highly vaxd country, we r seeing 1000s hospitalised and 100s of deaths every day. 3rd and 4th jabs were necessary to achieve this, we need to remember what a privileged position that is in relation to many other countries. How sustainable is it?

7. Most "zero"

countries won't have achieved the UK level of boosting, so given Omicron's ability to bypass antibodies unless recently boosted, is it any wonder there are problems?

8. Some context, please...clinical impact of a pandemic is proportionate to cases x severity x morbidity x time..

so, yes, HK is having a dreadful wave, and cases are high elsewhere. But, compare and contrast...NZ had ~10k cases, 6 deaths yesterday...UK had 950 deaths in the past week (yes, with many incidentals), and ongoing sky high prevalence (🙏 @ONS ) and currently over 16k hospitalised

...our toll over the pandemic is unbearable, never mind morbidity #LongCovidKids #LongCovid , but we seem very good at ignoring this at the moment, talking about COVID in the past tense...🤦‍♂️

9. SE Asian countries, NZ, etc may not have got the opening up quite right in terms of

Vax being high enough etc, but in contrast to Hancock's opinion, they have clearly fared better in terms of pandemic impact by whatever measures: health, economic, HCWs and health systems being intact, etc. Aside from border regs, NZ has actually spent less time in restrictions

than the UK.

10. Whether you achieve it by borders, TTIS, NPIs etc, suppression until vaccines were available is clearly the best course, I agree with @bealelab that some folks are rewriting history at present...this is confounded by the lagged, half-way house measures falling

short of effectiveness, leading to the need for all the harsher means to restore control. Those who influenced government in Autumn 2020 to ignore SAGE just bewilder me...

11. Sweden...just, don't. The reality of this is nothing like the rose tinted picture some minimisers

paint, and nothing like as good as some of it's close neighbours...

12. Things certainly are returning to "normal" in the UK, but I worry how sustainable this is. Behaviour is changing, as is the virus. How regularly will we need boosters? We still haven't protected most kids as

we have adults, and the dismantling of TTI and Genomic surveillance seems premature, at best...🤦‍♂️

13. Surely if we want normality, then making environments as safe and secure as possible is key? Technology combines with public health to improve air quality etc. @IndependentSage

14. Why were restrictions so damaging? We can't say they didn't have impact, and this was exacerbated by the vast gulf of health and socioeconomic inequality that has been polarising since 2010. The PPE scandals, parties and test & trace outsourcing are all the more shocking as a

result. Other countries were far more resilient in terms of social care, health and support structures. Deprivation maps onto COVID impact in the same way it does other measures of health inequity, foodbank use, working poverty...but its OK, "everyone can buy a test"...🤦‍♂️. See

our @IndependentSage briefing on this with @MichaelMarmot for more info...
15. Given their dreadful impact, you'd only ever want to do this once...but we've had three in the UK, albeit comprising different measures. The impact logically increases the later you leave it, just

maths really. Folks have made things out to be black and white, pro- or anti lockdown, when the reality is we r all against unless things get desperate. If we're concerned by the impact/benefit of lockdown, why act irresponsibly to make them more likely? #EOTHO, delays & inaction

in Autumn 2020, so-called data not dates in the road map despite the arrival of delta, late implementation of plan B, lack of mitigations in schools, public spaces and workplaces...
16. I've heard some say that we could have just moderated our behaviour, protected "the vulnerable

" and just got on with things...all very well through a massive retrospectoscope, but how did the UK population learn such behaviour, the scale of which at Xmas and last summer no doubt countered spread? I'll give you 3 guesses.
The tier system could have been a way to deal with

things along these lines, but these again suffered from poor messaging, inconsistencies, and a reluctance to act quickly and decisively, instead imposing half measures upon areas such as Manchester with seemingly no resolution. Remember, we had no vaccines back then...
17. Our

vaccines ARE the answer, but not alone, and not facing the exposure caused by unmitigated virus circulation. Each new layer of vaccination with the exception of boosting seems more reluctantly introduced, yet its patently clear that the demographic of the pandemic has changed. At

least this is thankfully not the case in many zero countries, but uptake can vary for different reasons.
18. COVID is still the highest cause of death by infection in the UK, but the risk for many is obviously diminished. Nevertheless, this situation is in flux, and many remain

at risk. Let us not repeat the mistakes of the past by pretending that health and socioeconomic inequality doesn't exist. I don't imagine that "the vulnerable" expect the rest of society to put lives on hold endlessly, or to live entirely risk free. But, we have an opportunity to

THIS time ensure that these people are not forgotten as society moves on. If something on the scale of a pandemic can't force change, then what can? We have the tools, knowledge and technology to make positive changes in this regard, but i imagine it's an easier ask if 1000s of

vulnerable people aren't already dead, morbid, or isolated.
19. Maybe living thru restrictions might remind us that simple things hold great value, and many vulnerable people do without. ZC might now just be a #, but rising cases now ≠ failure over 2 years. #areaunderthecurve