Thread by @jrmygrdn

This story is going round, but I think it is unlikely that Russian soldiers developed Acute Radiation Syndrome while messing around in the #Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. I'll explain my thinking in a short 🧵

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1509287796065845250

Acute Radiation Syndrome is a very rare thing caused by a super-intense dose of radiation to the whole body.

It happened to some plant operators and firefighters during the #Chernobyl accident in 1986, but I'm doubtful it happened to Russian troops in 2022 for three reasons:

1. The most intense radiation comes from nuclear material with a short half-life – decaying fast and giving off all its radiation in a hurry. We're talking seconds, minutes and hours. More than 35 years after the accident, that stuff is gone.

To my knowledge people who developed Acute Radiation Syndrome from a nuclear accident have been the ones on the spot, even in the room, when it took place. Not people in the general area and not decades later.

2. Radiation sources literally signal their presence and so are easy to find. It is unlikely that a hotspot presenting this level of danger would not have been identified and cleared up.

3. Even if there was a very intense radiation source still lying around it would likely only affect the troops who uncovered it, handled it or sat next to it. Probably not seven bus loads of them.

None of this is to say that messing around in the Exclusion Zone is safe. The soil there is contaminated and digging trenches to sit in it would be dumb (why do that anyway, given nobody is around for miles?)

If troops burnt wood from the forest, that would be a bad idea. They would inhale contamination in the smoke. Eating wild food from the forest would also be a bad idea. However...

Exposures like these, especially internally from ingestion and inhalation, would raise their statistical chance of developing cancer, but it would not deliver the huge whole-body-at-once dose you need for Acute Radiation Syndrome. It also wouldn't make them feel physically sick.

In conclusion, have Russian troops done dumb stuff near Chernobyl? Well, messing with anything would be dumb.
Have they done themselves harm? Potentially there will be impacts in the future.
Seven busloads of Acture Radiation Syndrome patients? Personally, I don't expect so.

That's my reaction based on limited information. I'll update if decent info becomes available.

But to be honest, I doubt it will. The source is a Ukrainian official and the Russian troops are now said to be in Belarus. I don't expect we'll hear anything definite.

In the meantime, perhaps we should ask ourselves what Russian troops might say or do to get out of Ukraine? Or what Ukrainians might say to get Russians to go home voluntarily?

Very good points made here:
- the source for the idea that Russian soldiers were sick from radiation is a single Facebook post
- There are other reasons Russian forces might visit the medical radiation facility besides actual sickness

https://twitter.com/DrJonathanCobb/status/1509473065725566977?s=20&t=f36IU-Z1OHBgqHfWXyuiOg

I've supplemented this with some information on where this story came from and the lack of any real evidence to support the idea that anyone is sick.

https://twitter.com/jrmygrdn/status/1509516246852767747