Some collected thoughts on what's going on with Russian troops in the #Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and whether they have gotten themselves sick 🧵
(Spoiler: No)
Earlier today the idea that Russian troops around #Chernobyl had developed Acute Radiation Sickness was going viral. I did this thread to explain why that struck me as highly unlikely.
Now, looking into the story more, I find there's no real substance to it. Here's why:
The whole thing seems to have started from this Facebook post by Yaroslav Emelianenko, who works for a company that does tours of the Zone.
He says that he has seen info on a Belarusian channel (presumably a Telegram channel) that Russian troops are once again at a 'radiation medicine' facility at Gomel in Belarus.
Now, 'radiation medicine' is not a great translation. The real term is 'nuclear medicine' and it means this is a facility for radiotherapy and radiography. It's a regular sort of medical centre specialised with those facilities. rcrm.by/eng/index.html
Also Emelianenko does not claim that Russian troops are sick with the effects of radiation, he just wonders if they are. 'Have you dug trenches in the Red Forest, bitches? Now live with it for the rest of your short life.'
So all we really know is that Russian troops have been to this medical facility across the border in Belarus. Other people have reported this with pictures, so that seems to be true. Troops going to a hospital during a war is not really a surprise.
Reminder: Experts all agree there's no realistic way to get a high enough dose to cause Acute Radiation Syndrome in the #Chernobyl area, even in the Red Forest.
So, is there any connection between these troops going at the 'radiation' hospital and their exposure to radiation in the Chernobyl Zone? Not really. There's no evidence.
IF there is a connection, I suggest it is probably a boring one, such as: They might be using radiation detectors and facilities at the hospital to get soldiers and their kit checked for contamination and cleaned up before deployment elsewhere.
/end
One more thing to add about Yaroslav Emelianenko, whose Facebook post kicked this off. He is CEO of a company doing tours of the Exclusion Zone and must know it very well. He's also on the public council of the agency that manages the Zone, but that doesn't make him an official.
The public council is a stakeholder group for all kinds of organisations with an interest in the management of the Exclusion Zone, so a whole bunch of charities, companies and agencies. The individual members, however, are not actually authorities in charge of the place.
Latest: No confirmation. Whatever long term harm Russian troops may have done themselves in the Exclusion Zone, the idea they are seriously ill and having emergency treatment is a wild goose chase.
There have been a lot of questions about nuclear issues in Ukraine since the war began. Here's a thread of my explanations if anyone wants to catch up.
[These are offered as what I put out at the time. I don't promise they are 100% complete or up to date.]
3 March
A run-down of nuclear power plant construction and essential safety systems in the context of troops approaching Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
This story is going round, but I think it is unlikely that Russian soldiers developed Acute Radiation Syndrome while messing around in the #Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. I'll explain my thinking in a short 🧵
Acute Radiation Syndrome is a very rare thing caused by a super-intense dose of radiation to the whole body.
It happened to some plant operators and firefighters during the #Chernobyl accident in 1986, but I'm doubtful it happened to Russian troops in 2022 for three reasons:
1. The most intense radiation comes from nuclear material with a short half-life – decaying fast and giving off all its radiation in a hurry. We're talking seconds, minutes and hours. More than 35 years after the accident, that stuff is gone.
Hongyanhe is a big nuclear power plant in northwestern China. It has five reactors that have been built since 2009, while the sixth will start up in the next few months.
Connecting it to the regional district heating system will take warmth from the reactors to Hongyanhe Town, Wafangdian City and Dalian City. Work on the connection will start in June, in time to heat the towns next winter. Dalian looks pretty cool.
UK opposition party Labour is just as solidly behind nuclear to cut fossil fuels as the Conservatives in power. No timidity from either party in saying the word any more.
In fairness both have long been pro-nuclear. Conservatives naturally so, while Labour actually launched the original UK nuclear R&D push and its first power plants back in the day. Labour did go a bit soft on it under Jeremy Corbyn, however, and shied away from saying the word.
Here's current Labour leader Keir Starmer actually mentioning nuclear first.
There are reports that #Kharkiv Institute of Physics in #Ukraine has been hit by rockets. It contains a small #nuclear research facility. I'll tell you what I understand about it and what's going on in this thread:
#Kharkiv has a 'sub-critical assembly'. That means that by design it does not have an ongoing chain reaction. Reactions only occur when triggered by an external source. This whole setup has been switched off since the invasion began.
At #Kharkiv scientists need to use a small particle accelerator to activate the subcritical assembly. It's not something that can happen by accident. We can be sure it will stay fully shut down.
There was an update this morning on #Zaporizhzhia and other nuclear power plants in #Ukraine from the plant owner, Energoatom.
Importantly, the situation is calm and nuclear operation is normal.
Details below:
Energoatom said that as of 9.30am its nuclear plants were all stably generating power for Ukraine. That includes #Zaporizhzhia. It notes that the country's power needs are being met.
At #Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Energoatom said "the perimeter... is now under the control of the Russian invaders [and the situation] is being monitored on an ongoing basis."