Thread by @mdancho84

My biggest mistakes were never my insights. They were in over-confidence.

An #rstats + #bayesian 🧵

2/n In business, I've made great regression models that have predicted how much sales we were going to make.

In fact, this helped me increase revenue from $3M to $15,000,000 per year at one of the companies I worked at.

BUT my models were NOT perfect.

3/n In fact, I'd argue that the BIGGEST flops were due to over-confidence.

Believing my model was better than it actually was.

Here's what hurt me...

4/n 3 things that hurt me the most:

1. Anomalies (Outliers)

2. Skewed Data (Long tailed distributions)

3. Using error metrics based on in-sample data

This is where Bayesian can help.

5/n I'd like to invite you to attend my FREE WORKSHOP on Bayesian, where I'm going over:

1. Why Bayesian is important to business

2. How to implement Bayesian for 90% of business problems

3. A case-study with code that shows you my strategies for analyzing bayesian models

6/n Join me and 700+ other students live next week where I teach #Bayesian for business using my FAVORITE language #R.

The workshop is great for beginners and experts alike.

No prior knowledge required.

👉Register Here: bit.ly/Bayes99