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Apr 14 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I believe the market has been correcting for nearly a year.

And that at least one more primary-degree impulse is to come before a cycle-degree correction.

I have several reasons for this thesis and shared each.

Here's a 🧵for those who can't follow past the last tweet.

1/
2/
#BTC 100D MA retest + #altcoin structure parallel + $DXY top, all at the start of a Fed Funds Rate hike cycle

3/
Recent #BTC 3W bullish Vortex cross

4/
3W Vortex cross + Dormancy Flow bottom confluence

5/
Large entity accumulation/distribution behavior

6/
Parallel relative sub-wave structure between cycle degree wave 3 and 1, with wave 3 exhibiting a consistent ~3X time expansion

7/
Wave symmetry + declining volume + 4 std dev 50W EMA wave extension + corrective RSI + Dormancy Flow decline + SSRO decline

8/
And yes, a historic example of similar multi-year macro wave structure in a speculative asset with consistent interaction with a key MA, the next projected move of which is confluent with the upcoming impulse suggested by points 1-7.

My respect and appreciation for those that show it to others, regardless of bias.

end/

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More from @TechDev_52

TechDev Profile picture
Feb 19
Primary and secondary macro #Bitcoin ideas.

1/ Image
Primary -

+ Impulse peak fib extension consistency
+ Peaks at 4 SDs of 50W EMA
+ Peaks evenly spaced
+ Log band confluence

2/ Image
Secondary -

+ All peaks accounted for
+ Wave symmetry and spacing even more consistent
+ Macro EW count I am satisfied with
+ Log band confluence

- Peak fib extensions not consistent
- All peaks not at 4 SDs from 50W EMA

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
TechDev Profile picture
Jan 31
An alternate view of #Bitcoin cycles.

1/
First off, h/t to @888Velvet who has had a similar read for quite some time.

I started following this man not long ago and he is a tremendous talent.



2/
And h/t to my friend @rickus_trades who shared his similar outlook not long ago, complete with EW counts, and trend extensions, both price and time.



3/
Read 9 tweets
TechDev Profile picture
Jan 17
1/

How I see #Bitcoin impulses and corrections over the cycles' bull markets based on new address trends on-chain.

At least one more upward impulse to come in my opinion before an impulsive downtrend (bear market) begins.
2/

In 4 out of the 6 corrections we saw divergence where price made higher highs and new addresses made lower highs.
3/

To me, all 6 are running corrections, also supported by declining volume.
Read 5 tweets
TechDev Profile picture
Jan 8
1/
My view of #Bitcoin impulses and corrections over the cycles.

We're still in the running correction we've been in for most of 2021.

#Bitcoin has not impulsed since February.
2/
I see some claiming current PA resembles a bear market.

It's resembled that since February 2021 in my opinion.

Because it's been corrective. Not impulsive.

Setting new ATHs during a running correction isn't new.

Volume is what distinguishes a correction from an impulse.
3/

Most likely outcome to me still is another upward impulse, before the start of *downward* impulsive trend, which is what defines a true bear market to me.
Read 11 tweets
TechDev Profile picture
Jan 3
1/
One of top bearish arguments I see being used to state with certainty the bull run is over...

The trendline break.
2/

Another is "bearish divergence" on RSI and MACD.
3/

Not only do some use these to guarantee an imminent further crash...

They also seem to think they entitle them to personally insult and question the integrity of others.
Read 6 tweets
TechDev Profile picture
Jan 1
1/
Nov and Dec missed. Calling model invalidated.

I know much of CT doesn’t believe it, or want to hear it, but to me this cycle still has yet to deviate significantly from the past two, based on price movement and key fib level interactions.

Everything is just taking longer.
2/
My initial expectations of a Dec-Jan top came from the assumption we began the final impulse in October.

This was wrong.
3/
After more research, I’ve come to believe this next (possibly final) impulse will come after a 2W close over the cycle 1.618, as they always have.

If this happens, it may provide a timeline estimate, but it honestly does not matter, and I don’t plan to focus on it.
Read 6 tweets

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