1/
Will liquidity lead the way? I worked with @unchained to break my latest newsletter out from
the paywall and publish Bitcoin's Next Parabolic Move - a report where I analyze how global
liquidity and the business cycle are aligning in a way that has historically preceded major bull runs. 🧵 2/
When global central banks ease policy - whether through rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, or other instruments of quantitative easing - liquidity grows. That increase must flow somewhere,
and increasingly, it finds its way into scarce, high-beta assets like bitcoin.

In my opinion, there is a strong chance the majority is about to be caught offguard by this next #altcoin move.

I understand the common wisdom that $BTC leads, everything follows later.

At least for now, I am fading that consensus.

#Altcoin Cap / $BTC

Thread 🧵...

1/ A problem with arbitrarily dividing the market into discrete "cycles", based on arbitrary definitions of "bear markets", is it may leave you blind to the rest of it.

Not all 80% corrections are created equal.

Last 2 shown. See the difference in literally everything else?

2/

12H $ETH Setup:

Trying to close 2nd green dot above trackline. If it does, long signal triggers. No entry until close confirmation. Will update on close.

Last two signals went 1.5% loss and 15% win.

Profitability = Keeping losses small and wins much larger Dots and Trackline available exclusively in yearly Alpha Bundle.

Currently running a 25% sale on this package. Never seen them cheaper.

Email their account manager Jess at manage@tradingalpha.io if interested.

tradingalpha.io/?via=ac78c2

I've always been a long-term investor.

Tried to add swing strategies, but failed.

After months of research, I've chosen a set of tools and approach.

BACKTEST:
$BTC, last 5 years
Compounded Gains: 1330x
Market During Same Time: 24x

Please read full thread... 🧵
1/ .@ZeroHedge_ has spent an enormous amount of time building an impressive indicator set.

This strategy is based on the Dots and Trackline tools.

Timeframe: 3-Day

Here are the rules...

2/

Remains primary macro #Bitcoin idea, supported by weekly OBV.

Cycle Wave 3 consistently 3X longer than Wave 1.

Primary 3 of Cycle 3: 100-120K 2023
Primary 4 of Cycle 3: 25-45K 2024
Primary 5 of Cycle 3: 300-450K 2025

Guides trading plan and invalidation.

1/7 For those wondering:

(iv) of 3 of Cycle Wave 1 does not enter (i)
and
(iii) of 3 of Cycle Wave 1 is not the shortest minor

2/7

I believe the market has been correcting for nearly a year.

And that at least one more primary-degree impulse is to come before a cycle-degree correction.

I have several reasons for this thesis and shared each.

Here's a 🧵for those who can't follow past the last tweet.

1/ 2/

#BTC 100D MA retest + #altcoin structure parallel + $DXY top, all at the start of a Fed Funds Rate hike cycle

https://twitter.com/TechDev_52/status/1512830137154347008?s=20&t=8C7LDLZ0NEjEjW4UdW7-iw

Primary and secondary macro #Bitcoin ideas.

1/ Primary -

+ Impulse peak fib extension consistency
+ Peaks at 4 SDs of 50W EMA
+ Peaks evenly spaced
+ Log band confluence

2/

An alternate view of #Bitcoin cycles.

1/ First off, h/t to @888Velvet who has had a similar read for quite some time.

I started following this man not long ago and he is a tremendous talent.

https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1259588663933046791?s=20&t=i6H2jcdY-dBN4dpXzVUffQ

2/

1/

How I see #Bitcoin impulses and corrections over the cycles' bull markets based on new address trends on-chain.

At least one more upward impulse to come in my opinion before an impulsive downtrend (bear market) begins. 2/

In 4 out of the 6 corrections we saw divergence where price made higher highs and new addresses made lower highs.

1/

My view of #Bitcoin impulses and corrections over the cycles.

We're still in the running correction we've been in for most of 2021.

#Bitcoin has not impulsed since February. 2/

I see some claiming current PA resembles a bear market.

It's resembled that since February 2021 in my opinion.

Because it's been corrective. Not impulsive.

Setting new ATHs during a running correction isn't new.

Volume is what distinguishes a correction from an impulse.

1/

One of top bearish arguments I see being used to state with certainty the bull run is over...

The trendline break. 2/

Another is "bearish divergence" on RSI and MACD.

1/

Nov and Dec missed. Calling model invalidated.

I know much of CT doesn’t believe it, or want to hear it, but to me this cycle still has yet to deviate significantly from the past two, based on price movement and key fib level interactions.

Everything is just taking longer.

https://twitter.com/techdev_52/status/1464741020973813762

2/

My initial expectations of a Dec-Jan top came from the assumption we began the final impulse in October.

This was wrong.

🧵 1/

Some understand the difference between probability and certainty.

With #Bitcoin, history rhymes more than not.

Past doesn’t dictate future? Not always.

But it has so far this cycle on the macro.

Using it has given participants an edge and that’s all I’m looking for. 2/

Had you listened to history, you would have sold the April high when we hit the 1.618 and bought the July low when we hit the 1.272.

Now we are at the 1.618 again, which saw an identical correction of ~40% after an identical overshoot of 16% (credit @Mozzi_analyst).

🧵 1/

No, I didn’t see this crash coming. Others did. Kudos to them.

Yes, there are differences between the cycles. Always have been.

But I still maintain they are more similar than different.

Monitoring the extent of their deviation is where my invalidation points come from. 2/

Now is when I intend to use the tools developed to confirm or deny a bear market. None have confirmed yet.

This cycle continues to respect the 50W SMA (currently around 47K) like 2017 did the 20W SMA as its unbroken bull market support line.

OK, let's talk about this upcoming #BTC linear 4.236 fib extension at 73.5K.

Both prior cycles with halvings topped just above their log 2.272 fib.

They also topped at the log regression line.

Not surprising since this was fit after the fact.

1/6 We can also see that both 2013 and 2017 looked to interact with their linear 4.236 before moving higher.

However, I'd argue they were actually interactions with the log 1.618, which was nearby.

2021 is the first cycle where log 1.618 was substantially below linear 4.236.

2/6

I want a lengthened cycle. Who doesn't?

But nothing I've seen macro PA-wise suggests it will happen.

Watch your indicators.

2-week RSI channel, RVI 92-93.

If they're hit, I'm out.

Ignore them in hopes of a new paradigm and you're likely to get dumped on by those who don't. So it’s clear, by “I’m out” at those indicator levels, I mean that:

1/2

- I will expect that we have seen the #BTC top and will exit #BTC
- Will watch for #BTC to retrace up to the .702 from the top over 2-4 weeks
- During this period I expect alts to go insanely parabolic

Follow those that understand the cycle. Really helps.

No order, lots missing. #FF

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