Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️“HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS NEW VARIANTS”—New York State Dept of Health announced the emergence of 2 new Omicron subvariants, BA.2.12 & BA.2.12.1—estimated to have 23%-27% growth advantage above #BA2. ➡️NYS says “highly contagious new variants are likely contributing to rising cases”🧵

2) Department's Wadsworth Center Identifies Two Sub-lineages of BA.2—BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1—Potentially Contributing to Increased Transmission Reported in Central New York and Surrounding Regions.

health.ny.gov/press/releases…

3) “Both variants are sub-lineages of BA.2, which now accounts for 80.6% of COVID-19 infections in New York. The subvariants have been estimated to have a 23% – 27% growth advantage above the original BA.2 variant.”

4) “Over the past few weeks, the Department has been investigating higher than average infection rates in Central New York. State health officials have determined that these highly contagious new variants are likely contributing to the rising cases.

5) “For the month of March, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 rose to collectively comprise more than 70% prevalence in Central New York and more than 20% prevalence in the neighboring Finger Lakes region. Data for April indicate that levels in Central New York are now above 90%.

6) “The Department's findings are the first reported instances of significant community spread due to the new subvariants in the US. At this time, there is no evidence of increased disease severity by these subvariants, though the Department is closely monitoring for any changes.

7) “We are alerting the public to two Omicron subvariants, newly emerged and rapidly spreading in upstate New York, so New Yorkers can act swiftly," said State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett. @DrMaryTBassett

8) But one of them, BA.2.12.1, contains a mutation that appears to give the variant an advantage, computational biologist @CorneliusRoemer wrote. The mutation resides on the part of the virus that binds to human cells.

npr.org/sections/goats…

9) And in previous variants, this mutation has helped the virus infect cells, studies have found. The BA.2.12. variant appears to have a growth advantage of about 30% to 90% per week over BA.2, Roemer estimates.

10) But it's early days for this virus. Scientists have detected this variant in six countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Israel and Luxembourg, but the vast majority of cases are in the U.S.

11) Those are localized primarily to central New York. "It is worth noting that the incidence [of this variant] is not very high at the moment," Hanage adds. "So the total numbers of cases are not huge at present."

12) meanwhile, #BA4 and #BA5 are also emerging on the other side of the planet simultaneously, and also outpacing #Ba2 there in South Africa.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1513641429108760580

13) “Although BA.2.12.1 may be better at evading the immune system than other omicron variants, scientists still expect the vaccine to work well against it, at least in terms of protecting people from severe COVID and hospitalization.”

14) “"I'm relatively optimistic that, despite all of these changes in the virus, the vaccines will hold up," Luban says. "So people who have been vaccinated and boosted are not going to be hospitalized, by and large, ➡️unless there's some extenuating (high risk) circumstances."🤦🏻‍♂️

15) it’s possible that the new variants are more evasive against immunity rather than merely more contagious. Personally I worry about more immunity evasion — since it would allow the virus to pole vault over existing immunity from vaccines or previous infection. Ie reinfection.

https://twitter.com/corneliusroemer/status/1514600513488125961

16) “It’s just a reminder that we’re not out of the woods with regard to this virus, and people should continue to take precautions and to get fully vaccinated if they haven’t completed their course,” said Kirsten St. George, a virologist for the state
nytimes.com/live/2022/04/1…

17) The 2 new New York announced subvariants have been detected in more than 40 other countries and in more than 30 states across the United States.

nytimes.com/live/2022/04/1…

18) it is definitely TOO DAMN EARLY for New York to lift mask rules.

By @WajahatAli thedailybeast.com/told-you-sothe…

19) the nasty little L452 mutation (at the 452 amino acid of the spike protein) keeps showing up— and recently **showing up all at once** among Omicron subvariants independently across the globe 🌏

L452M IN BELGIUM
L452R IN FRANCE
L452Q IN CANADA & NEW YORK
BA4 in S Africa
BA5

https://twitter.com/useby2022/status/1515050529507975181

20) the US could already be at 100k cases per day again, but we wouldn’t truly know because home tests are almost never reported. Waiting for hospitalizations is just insanity. Thank you @JReinerMD

https://twitter.com/jreinermd/status/1515327451349622787

21) this is why you need to get boosted now ASAP… another wave is here. Don’t regret getting the shot too late.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1515016055386787841