Thread by @JustinSKatz

NEW: I asked three naval warfare experts what the @USNavy should learn about the #Ukrainians sinking the #Moskva with a pair of cruise missiles. Here is what they told me, via @BreakingDefense. 🧵(1/12)

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Let’s set the scene. The Pentagon’s stated “pacing threat” right now is #China. These lessons are all in the context of what would happen if the worst happened & two world superpowers came to blows in the South China Sea. (2/12)

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First, cruise missiles are cheap & #China has plenty, says @CollinSLKoh. As the #Ukrainians demonstrated, a weaker force can focus their salvos. If they score one good hit, the ship may be out of action, even if it's not sunk outright. (3/12)

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The #Moskva and other incidents like it (see: INS Hanit circa 2006) “reinforces the notion that in today’s naval warfare, weaker parties can still pose an asymmetric threat to stronger naval adversaries,” @CollinSLKoh says. (4/12)

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Next, @USNavy's ships have advantages over #Moskva. @JerryHendrixII notes the Soviet Union made poor ship design choices, like storing offensive munitions above deck. Their air defense systems are also “archaic” compared to Aegis platforms. (5/12)

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It can't be understated the mistakes the Soviet Union/Russia made with Slava, Kirov and Udaloy classes, @JerryHendrixII says. The ship design "really sets itself up for the sort of cascade failure.”
(6/12)

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Moving on, @Admiral_Foggo told me the crews themselves can also make the difference.

A student of history, he noted the upcoming 40th anniversary of the #Falklands War. In that conflict, two ships suffered eerily similar fates to the #Moskva. (7/12)

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An Argentine crew couldn't contain flooding on their ship following an attack, despite the ship’s design being built to do that. A British crew didn't spot a missile & fire burned their ship before they could return to port, @Admiral_Foggo said. (8/12)

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“I don’t have any facts other than speculation [about the #Moskva], but I will tell you that it smacks of the situation on [the Argentine ship]. Complacency,” @Admiral_Foggo said. (9/12)

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Both @JerryHendrixII & @Admiral_Foggo noted how critical it is that #Moskva was a flagship, a vessel that is meant to represent the best a nation can offer. Its sinking is "an embarrassment" to Putin & Russia as a whole, Hendrix said. (10/12)

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Lastly, Adm. Foggo notes the irony at play. #Moskva was built in #Nikolaev port in the days of the #USSR. President @ZelenskyyUa ordered Ukraine’s own flagship scuttled in that same port early on during the Russian invasion. (11/12)

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“And that’s where the #Ukrainian flagship remains sunk. And now the Ukrainians, if it’s true, sunk #Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet,” @Admiral_Foggo said. “It’s just — I mean, you can’t make this up. It’s like a Hollywood script.” (12/12)

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