A quick thread on how government expenditure is almost always paid for the people - in 1 of 3 ways

#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #SriLanka #lka (#GotaGoGama #GoHomeRajapakshas #GotaGoHome2022 #අරගලයටජය for reach)

(1/9)
Whenever a government has an expense, it's paid in 1 of 3 ways.

1. Taxes
2. Loans
3. Money printing

Despite what it looks like, taxes are often the least anti-poor

(2/9)
Let's start with money printing - I explained it detail here but what matters is that excess printing just results in inflation.



(3/9)
Now inflation is bad for everyone, since it reduces the value of your money - in effect, a post-printing "tax". You're paying for the printing in the past, with reduced money access today.

But this affects the poor the worst.

(4/9)
This is especially true since inflation is often hard to control AND requires measures that further hit the poor in order to control it. So it's really bad.

(5/9)
Loans are paid either with other loans, or eventually through taxes or printing again.

If you keep borrowing forever, great, but eventually if it crashes, then you end up in the printing cycle again OR see a huge recession, again hitting the poor most.

(6/9)
That leaves you with taxes. Now taxes, especially indirect taxes, aren't pro-poor at all. They hit the poor more that the rich.

But the practical reality is, the other options are far far worse.

(7/9)
Improving our tax system makes this better. But runaway inflation, huge debt costs and recessions, are just by all relevant metrics, worse than taxes. And the fewer taxes we collected, the more the others are needed.



(8/9)
So that's the thing. We can't avoid paying for what we get, it's just a choice of how painful we want it to be.

Taxes are the least painful option we have - and especially those of us who can, better pay to make it easier for the rest.

(9/9)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Chayu Damsinghe

Chayu Damsinghe Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ChayuDamsinghe

Apr 19
What's happening in Rambukkana, and anything else that follows, is catastrophic. We can't forget the criminal economic policies that led to this or allow those who advocated for those to be the good guys.

#ProtestLK #SriLanka

(1/21)
Even in 2018, Sri Lanka was facing a long term debt issue. It was tough, it was going to be damn difficult to get through. Realistically, the only option we had to pay our debt and keep our reserves, was more debt.

So we started that.

(2/21)
Why not hope for investment? In addition to the varied issues behind import substitution - a big factor is its difficult to convince huge investment in a country under debt distress. That means shady deals more often than not.

(3/21)

Read 21 tweets
Apr 17
Following import substitution, self-sufficiency, and local production didn't work out for Sri Lanka in the last 2 years. My longest 🧵yet to explain - promise it's worth it!

(1/30)

#SriLankaCrisis #SriLanka #lka (#GotaGoGama #GoHomeGota #GoHomeRajapakshas #අරගලයටජය for reach)
Now, these ideas are often "common sense". It sounds good - if we have a forex problem, lets stop importing and make it ourself! Lets be self-sufficent, why depend on others?

But econ ISN'T common sense - so let's go through my view on why these don't work.

(2/30)
The main idea behind these is basically - produce goods locally, ideally goods we currently import, and sometimes, hope to export later.

So 3 broad benefits spoken of

1. Save/grow forex
2. Increase GDP
3. Have a backup if global trade fails

Lets go through all of these

(3/30)
Read 30 tweets
Apr 16
I promise I'll try my best to make this not-boring, but let's talk taxes in Sri Lanka.

#SriLanka #SriLankaEconomicCrisis #lka (also #GotaGoGama #OccupyGalleFace #අරගලයටජය #GotaGoHome2022 for reach)

(1/24)
Our tax revenue before 2019 was about 11-12% of GDP. After the tax cuts, this came down to around 8%. Both in comparison to around 12-14% in non-debt expenditure (about 16% in 2019 due to election goodies)

Explained how this was a problem here


(2/24)
In an attempt to make this easier to digest, going to bring back Rehan (our rich guy), Pasan (who I've made less poor than he was), and a new fellow Ayesh who's basically in poverty.

Rehan earns 500k a month. Pasan earns 50k. Ayesh earns 15k.

(3/24)
Read 24 tweets
Apr 15
Let me try and explain the Uganda banknote mess as much as I can and how it relates to Sri Lanka and how it doesn't.

#SriLanka #SriLankaEconomicCrisis #lka (also tagging #GotaGoGama #OccupyGalleFace for the reach)

(1/22)
As I understand it, there are 2 separate issues here, which may be linked together in a way we don't yet know.

1. Uganda's own money laundering issues
2. De La Rue printing Ugandan money and SLA airlifting it

(2/22)
Lets start with Uganda's own issues.

Uganda has had money laundering concerns for a while, and especially terrorist financing issues. This is unfortunately true for some countries in Sub Saharan Africa.

(3/22)
Read 23 tweets
Apr 15
I'm going to do a single political thread on the #GotaGoGama #GoHomeGota #OccupyGalleFace protest and a threat it faces. Might be contentious, but please give alternative views.

#SriLankaCrisis #SriLankaEconomicCrisis #SriLanka

(1/20)
Starting off with a few disclaimers.

I think the protests are great for Sri Lanka, I think they've done permanent good already, I think they should continue.

I'm also not a political/social expert - so take this from that POV.

(2/20)
The response to the poll confirms something I was concerned about - that there is space for the protest to be attacked based on perceptions of elitism

If a Twitter poll of what protestors think is like this, I feel actual sentiment might be worse

(3/20)

Read 20 tweets
Apr 13
What will happen to Sri Lanka, economically, over the next few months, especially to its people?

The answer isn't pretty, but it's something to prepare for.

#SriLankaProtests #SriLanka (Also tagging #GotaGoGama #GoHomeGota #OccupyGalleFace #අරගලයටජය for reach)

(1/11)
Let's assume there's some sort of political stability at some point. What that is doesn't really matter too much to this thread's outcomes, it just extends the timeline if it's delayed.

With that out of the way - what will SL need to come out of this?

(2/11)
As long as we keep engaging with the IMF and our creditors, it should hopefully bring enough confidence that there will be some inflows (bilateral, remittances, export conversions, aid) that allow the urgent essential shortages to ease across the next month or two.

(3/11)
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(