Now inflation is bad for everyone, since it reduces the value of your money - in effect, a post-printing "tax". You're paying for the printing in the past, with reduced money access today.
But this affects the poor the worst.
(4/9)
This is especially true since inflation is often hard to control AND requires measures that further hit the poor in order to control it. So it's really bad.
(5/9)
Loans are paid either with other loans, or eventually through taxes or printing again.
If you keep borrowing forever, great, but eventually if it crashes, then you end up in the printing cycle again OR see a huge recession, again hitting the poor most.
(6/9)
That leaves you with taxes. Now taxes, especially indirect taxes, aren't pro-poor at all. They hit the poor more that the rich.
But the practical reality is, the other options are far far worse.
(7/9)
Improving our tax system makes this better. But runaway inflation, huge debt costs and recessions, are just by all relevant metrics, worse than taxes. And the fewer taxes we collected, the more the others are needed.
What's happening in Rambukkana, and anything else that follows, is catastrophic. We can't forget the criminal economic policies that led to this or allow those who advocated for those to be the good guys.
Even in 2018, Sri Lanka was facing a long term debt issue. It was tough, it was going to be damn difficult to get through. Realistically, the only option we had to pay our debt and keep our reserves, was more debt.
So we started that.
(2/21)
Why not hope for investment? In addition to the varied issues behind import substitution - a big factor is its difficult to convince huge investment in a country under debt distress. That means shady deals more often than not.
Following import substitution, self-sufficiency, and local production didn't work out for Sri Lanka in the last 2 years. My longest 🧵yet to explain - promise it's worth it!
Now, these ideas are often "common sense". It sounds good - if we have a forex problem, lets stop importing and make it ourself! Lets be self-sufficent, why depend on others?
But econ ISN'T common sense - so let's go through my view on why these don't work.
(2/30)
The main idea behind these is basically - produce goods locally, ideally goods we currently import, and sometimes, hope to export later.
So 3 broad benefits spoken of
1. Save/grow forex 2. Increase GDP 3. Have a backup if global trade fails
Our tax revenue before 2019 was about 11-12% of GDP. After the tax cuts, this came down to around 8%. Both in comparison to around 12-14% in non-debt expenditure (about 16% in 2019 due to election goodies)
In an attempt to make this easier to digest, going to bring back Rehan (our rich guy), Pasan (who I've made less poor than he was), and a new fellow Ayesh who's basically in poverty.
As I understand it, there are 2 separate issues here, which may be linked together in a way we don't yet know.
1. Uganda's own money laundering issues 2. De La Rue printing Ugandan money and SLA airlifting it
(2/22)
Lets start with Uganda's own issues.
Uganda has had money laundering concerns for a while, and especially terrorist financing issues. This is unfortunately true for some countries in Sub Saharan Africa.
I'm going to do a single political thread on the #GotaGoGama#GoHomeGota#OccupyGalleFace protest and a threat it faces. Might be contentious, but please give alternative views.
Let's assume there's some sort of political stability at some point. What that is doesn't really matter too much to this thread's outcomes, it just extends the timeline if it's delayed.
With that out of the way - what will SL need to come out of this?
(2/11)
As long as we keep engaging with the IMF and our creditors, it should hopefully bring enough confidence that there will be some inflows (bilateral, remittances, export conversions, aid) that allow the urgent essential shortages to ease across the next month or two.