Thread by @ramanmann1974

Thread

Can we export #wheat

There is 10~15% #wheat yield loss in Punjab, Haryana, UP & MP, due to weather anomalies; wheat to mustard acreage shift & farmers holding back crop & exports; Seems, Govt procurement target of 44 million tons will fall short by around 10 million tons

#Haryana has set a target of 85 lakh ton #wheat procurement, but in the first 17 days, State mandis have witnessed nearly 20% less wheat arrival compared to last year. #Punjab has a target of 130 lakh ton, but reliable sources say procurement would likely be around 100 lakh tons.

Govt position is that "India's new season #wheat harvest is underway, with this year's production at a record 111.32 million tons-making it the 6'th season in a row that India has produced a surplus. But, it seems nobody factored yield loss of 10~15% i.e. at least 11 million tons

In FY-22 we exported 7 million tons #wheat. General feeling was that Ukraine crisis could create larger opportunities to boost exports. @PiyushGoyal said we can export 15 million ton wheat, whereas #ITC officials r saying that now, we can triple wheat exports to 21 million tons !

Imagine exporting 21 million ton wheat, when we have a shortfall of around 11 million ton wheat; global wheat prices will remain on an uptick for at least a year, & it is clear that private traders will mop up the wheat for exports. Well then do we have enough wheat for PDS ?

As on Apr 1, 2022, wheat stock in the central pool was 18.98 million, with around 34 million ton of this season's MSP procurement, we have 53 million tons stocks. We require at least 25 million tons for food welfare schemes, which leaves us with 28 million tons of wheat stocks !

We should not forget that as on April 1, 2023, we have to have the buffer stock requirement of 7.50 million tons of #wheat, so it would be safe to say that the country is left with roughly 20.5 million tons of wheat stocks, which we can spare for exports in the present times !

Now, question is that, can we export 21 million tons #wheat as #ITC officials say or 15 million tons as Minister @PiyushGoyal says ? Well, If we go by ITC officials, we will have zero stock in Apr 2023, if we go according to Mr Goyal we will have 5.5 million tons stock in Apr-23

Now, it is up to learned souls to evaluate, & decide that can we export #wheat, & still safeguard our food security interests; or if we can export, how much amount can we export. I request @nstomar @AgriGoI @DoC_GoI to please factor in 10~15% yield loss in their calculations🙏