Every reason you would buy the UST30YR right now is twice the reason you should buy #btc. A thread…
The Fed will invoke QE infinity and YCC shielding bonds…
Yes but currency debasement is thus accelerated…therefore #btc over the UST30YR
We are heading to a recession and #bonds always perform in recessions…
Yes but the next recession could be the one that gives up the ghost and QE causes credit contagion and collapse…therefore #btc over UST30YR
I failed nominal vs real return #math and while CPI is 8.5% yoy, and UST30YR yields only 3%, I am counting on greater fool theory that people will run for duration and convexity…
Duration and convexity work in opposite direction too. #bonds have asymmetric DOWNSIDE…/4
But Foss, the market (still) treats it as risk off...
My response... /2
Markets take time to adjust their thinking, but once it happens there is no turning back. For example:
"In 1959, 30 years after the great Crash, an event took place that made absolutely no sense in light of history. Up to the late 1950s, investors had received a
/3
...higher income from owning stocks than from owning bonds. Every time the yields got close, the dividend yield on common stocks moved back up over the bond yield. That seemed precisely as it should be. After all, stocks are riskier than bonds.... /4
I have been a professional risk trader for over thirty years. Sitting in a risk chair is real life. It is not some cushy academic chair where theories are espoused. It is managing the savings and pensions of clients, friends and family… /2
— in real time, good markets and bad — and your livelihood and sanity are pressured daily.
In a risk chair you are always looking for cheap insurance. An edge that will protect you and clients in the event of a risk event. I believe bitcoin to be the best insurance product… /3
I have ever studied. It is essentially credit insurance on a basket of Fiat currencies. It is a hedge to the inevitable unraveling of Fiat systems globally.
Bitcoin provides protection against central bank shenanigans. It allows for a more comfortable risk chair…. /4