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Katherine Hersch Profile picture
@ThatKHersch
May 1, 2022 • 7 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
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There have been numerous reports today of one or more ammunition depot #fires in the #Belgorod, #Russia area. Locations for the fire(s) that have been mentioned include: #Kozychevo (below), #Tomarovka, and #Borisovka. A 🧵for updates & clarifications. 1/
Some reports regarding the ammunition depot #fire(s) in the #Belgorod, #Russia area indicate that they first saw air defense activity, followed by #explosions on the ground, fire, and then further explosions as, apparently, ammunition detonated. 2/
This video of a potential ammunition #depot #fire near #Belgorod, #Russia was posted on social media with information indicating the fire is in the vicinity of #Tomarovka. 3/
Additional video of the potential ammunition #depot #fire near #Belgorod, #Russia. The location information that accompanied this video was not very precise. Notice the secondary explosions and additional fire to the left. 4/
Further video of the possible military #depot #fire near #Belgorod, #Russia. (Once again -- unfortunately -- poor location data for the fire.) 5/
These maps show locations that have been mentioned in regard to the ammunition depot #fire today in the #Belgorod, #Russia area: #Borisovka, #Tomarovka and #Kozychevo. My guess is that it's a single fire between Kozychevo and Tomarovka. 6/
The Russian news service RIA Novosti is reporting on the ammunition depot #fire near #Belgorod. It suggests the fire on the "territory of one of the facilities of the Ministry of Defense" is in #Tomarovka. 7/
ria.ru/20220501/minob…

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More from @ThatKHersch

Katherine Hersch Profile picture
Sep 14, 2022
1/ The leading German newsweekly, Der Spiegel, is reporting that the Biden administration is "quite sympathetic" to the idea of #Germany being the first country to provide #Ukraine with modern, western-designed #tanks and other armored vehicles.
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
2/ Spiegel: "US diplomats recently signaled to the German government on several occasions that Washington was quite sympathetic to an explosive idea: that Germany would be the first country to announce tank deliveries and thus possibly involve other EU partners." Image
3/ The Spiegel report, which notes that Washington itself is still undecided about whether or not to supply Ukraine with western-designed tanks, dovetails with reporting by the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung earlier this week.
Read 7 tweets
Katherine Hersch Profile picture
Sep 13, 2022
1/ I like a lot about the analyses @MarkHertling shares on this site. But he has some explaining to do about a point in his latest thread where he suggests that there is something unexpected and potentially really bad about Ukraine wanting to recover Crimea.

Huh? Image
2/ Hertling includes "Will UKR attempt to recover Crimea?" in his list of "black swans" that could occur in the war in Ukraine. He defines "black swans" as "unpredictable" events that often have "severe consequences."
3/ So, for Hertling, Ukraine wanting to recover Crimea falls into the same category of events such as
- Russia continuing to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure, or
- Russia resorting to weapons of mass destruction
(which are some of the other "black swans" in his list).
Read 11 tweets
Katherine Hersch Profile picture
Jun 29, 2022
1/ Two major U.S. media outlets have recently reported that officials in the Biden administration are starting to doubt whether #Ukraine can regain Ukrainian territory currently occupied by #Russia.
2/ In a report early yesterday, CNN said "White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war ..."
cnn.com/2022/06/28/pol…
3/ "Advisers to President Joe Biden," CNN's report continued, "have begun debating internally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" – adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly."
Read 10 tweets
Katherine Hersch Profile picture
Jun 28, 2022
1/ A neglected aspect of yesterday's "G7 Statement of Support for Ukraine" is how it talks about #Ukraine's #borders. The language is a positive development for those who (like me) believe the #war should end with #Russia gone from every square inch of Ukrainian territory. 🧵 Image
2/ Many past statements by allied leaders have been notable for not even mentioning Ukraine's borders. President Biden's essay in the New York Times a month ago, outlining U.S. goals for its support of Ukraine, is a notable (and notorious) example.
3/ Yet yesterday's G7 statement on Ukraine addresses the issue of Ukraine's borders at least three times, all of them early in the statement. I quote each of those instances below (with added highlighting via capitalization).
g7germany.de/resource/blob/…
Read 6 tweets
Katherine Hersch Profile picture
Jun 27, 2022
1/ The first of the German-supplied PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers are now in action in eastern #Ukraine. The German newspaper Bild has a report and photos of the howitzer in action.
bild.de/politik/auslan…
2/ One of the co-authors of the Bild report about the PzH 2000's being in Ukraine, @ronzheimer, also is sharing photos and video of the howitzer in action.
3/ Video from @ronzheimer of the PzH 2000 in eastern #Ukraine.
Read 5 tweets
Katherine Hersch Profile picture
Jun 20, 2022
1/ There have been reports today that Russian installations on occupied Snake Island have come under heavy bombardment by Ukrainian forces. There also is speculation the attack may have been carried out using HIMARS rocket launchers.

Would this be possible?

Yes.

A short 🧵. Image
2/ 70 km (43.5 miles) is the most commonly reported range of HIMARS launchers using the GMLRS munitions Ukraine's allies will be providing. That would put Snake Island within range of Ukrainian coastal areas under Ukrainian control. Image
3/ A closer look of the Ukraine coast within 70 km of Snake Island reveals that there are many locations where HIMARS launchers could be set up for an attack on Snake Island. Image
Read 7 tweets

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