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Judging from various reports, the #ukrainecounteroffensive seems to be a complete disaster, even though this is officially denied by the Western side.

But this analysis by Col. Richard Kemp of the #British military shows no expectations of success.

Col. Kemp uses cautious language, but it is easy to read between the lines. Being a retired Western Colonel, you don't expect him to come out and say openly that #Ukraine️ is going to lose. But that is exactly what he is saying.

Let me explain why the conclusion is clear.

His main points:

1. Surprise is essential for success.

But of course, there is no surprise here. The whole world has been expecting this operation for months. There are no unexpected lines of attack like #Incheon in the #KoreanWar in 1950.

Read 11 tweets
#Ukraine: Today's updates from #UkraineWar: 1. UA military says it is advancing in several directions at once in S in #counteroffensive, up to 2 km in each direction. RU counterattack successfully defeated: #tweet100
🇺🇦⚡️THREAD🇺🇦⚡️ ImageImage
#Ukraine: 2. N of #Bakhmut, in a series of coordinated attacks, UA have breached several key RU positions & yesterday retook heights overlooking the city. #Prigozhin, seeing RU losses said collapse of RU N flank is "only a matter of time". #tweet100 (Map: @ChuckPfarrer) Image
#Ukraine: 3. In #US, current draft of Nat. Def. Authorization Act for 2024 includes $80 million for supply of ATACMS to UA. #Germany delivering 64 Patriot missiles & #Belgium M113 APCs following Ramstein meeting. #tweet100. Update on #Counteroffensive: ImageImage
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🧵Latest: We can now reveal that #Belgium has reportedly been in talks with #FCAS stakeholders regarding an “observer status for the time being,” rather than fully acceding to the program. The Belgian MoD did not respond to requests for comment.…
2. The CEO of #Dassault Aviation, Éric Trappier, has made it known he’s against expanding FCAS to include other countries involved in the #F35 program, even if they are European. However, he has not ruled out the possibility of governments joining as observer nations.
3. Trappier made the following remarks at a hearing session on France’s 2024-2030 Military Programming Law held last month. “I don’t really see the point in putting more F35 countries into the program. Why would I make room in my factory for people who have chosen the F-35?”
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1/Such a dreadful report about Bengal from America which has created panic all over the world.
Once considered a symbol of Indian culture, what has happened in Bengal today is not hidden from anyone.
2/The communal riots against the #Hindus have started happening for quite some time and now the situation has been that the banning of celebrating the festival has started.
But the famous American journalist #JanetLevy has now written the article on #WBengal
3/ Janet Levy claims Bengal will soon become a separate #Islamic country & her latest article that civil war is going to start soon in #Bengal after #Kashmir.
In which mass Hindus will be massacred and demanded a separate country called #Mughalistan i.e. another partition.
Read 15 tweets
Special for you! :)))

Another meeting was held today in the Ramstein format. Brief summaries:

▪️🇩🇰#Denmark, the 🇳🇱#Netherlands, 🇬🇧#UK and 🇺🇸#USA announced the transfer of hundreds of missiles to 🇺🇦#Ukraine for air defense.
▪️🇨🇦#Canada has pledged to allocate another $500 million for 🇺🇦#Ukraine, including missiles for air defense.
▪️🇳🇴#Norway and 🇩🇪#Germany announced multi-year packages.
▪️🇩🇰#Denmark announced the allocation of a package of long-term military aid worth 2.6 billion dollars until 2024.
▪️🇩🇰#Denmark and the 🇳🇱#Netherlands will hand over 14 more Leopard 2 tanks to 🇺🇦#Ukraine.
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#Ukraine: Latest updates from #UkraineWar: 1. RU channels report that General Akhmedov kept large gathering of troops in #Kreminna out in open waiting 2 hrs for a pep talk before battle. UA HIMARS struck, 100 reported killed incl general, 100 wounded. #tweet100
🇺🇦THREAD🎯 Image
#Ukraine: 2. Heavy fighting continues in #Counteroffensive towards S, #Novodanylivka & #Novopokrovka and around #Rivnopil. #US officials say progress is slow as expected because of minefield clearance & other obstacles. 5 RU howitzers destroyed. #tweet100 Image
#Ukraine: 3. Armed Forces of Ukraine say casualty rates around #Bakhmut are 1 x UA to 8.73 RU & at #Zaporizhzhia front 1/5.3. RU remains superior in aviation & artillery resources. Many more RU prisoners taken in the last week, a sharp increase. #tweet100
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#Germany’s first National Security Strategy was published today.

A short 🧵 of reflections on what is, overall, a disappointing document (even taking account of lower expectations) - but also has some interesting & positive points to work with.
Many have summarised the content - but thats not my purpose here. For a summary - & also a quite different take, see @RikeFranke's thread here

But, I want to draw attention to some other issues
Even though there will be no national security council, this is clearly a strategy by committee - there are LOTS of very different items included [a fault of many other strategies too] but in this case there are competing worldviews trying to be squeezed into one document
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#Germany’s Top Tank Destroyed on Ukrainian Frontlines: #Leopard2 (2A6) and Dozens of American #Bradleys Taken Out…
The Leopard 2A6 has long been marketed as a much more capable vehicle. Costing close to $8 million per vehicle, advantages of the new variant
2/4-include use of 3rd generation composite armour, integration of a a longer barrelled and more powerful main gun, installation of additional armour modules on the turret, and use of much improved fire controls. The loss of these tanks, which have widely been considered the most
3/4-capable in production across the Western world has significant implications well beyond Ukraine itself.
It remains likely that Leopard 2A6 units have taken further losses,as only a small fraction of destroyed vehicles in the conflict can have closeup videos taken from the air
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#Scholz of #Germany delivered a 🔥fiery speech🔥 calling Putin a warmongerer and a murderer.

This is the way.
To those saying this is from last year - you're wrong. This is an annual event, and it might confuse some because he was in a similar situation last year at the same event. Here is two different sources about this years event:
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Good morning, welcome to Daily Thread number 465 covering #Ukraine's heroic defence against #Russia's illegal aggression.

I've been here from (before) the start of war, reporting on (sometimes from) a country I've loved, worked + lectured in many, many times.
Overnight was quiet
Before we get stuck in to today's news, a gentle reminder these threads are basically an unpaid full time job - actually more than that as you get days off with a job! Coffee donations welcome (link in Bio)

To catch up on Friday's news, click here
A few drones buzzed #Ukraine yesterday evening but air raids did not last long and no damage was reported.

The drone/cruise missile numbers on #Russia's daily losses are high as they include Friday morning's attacks.
Artillery, special equipment & fuel tanks way above average Image
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#BavovnaToday 01.06.2023

BAVOVNA: Shebekino (👀🔥)
Bilhorod (👀🔥)

(👀🔥) - Multiple bavovna
Like, RT and Comments. Thanks 😏✌🏻
🔹"RVC" and the Legion "Freedom of Russia" began the second phase of the "liberation" of Belgorod region 🔥🔥🔥
🔸"Units of PMC "Wagner" leave Bakhmut to the rear areas. Today the main part will be released. The rest - until the 5th" - Prigozhin
🔹"#Ukraine needs more Patriot systems" - says the Prime Minister of the #Netherlands, Mark Rutte
🔸"Our only mistake is that we did not resolve this issue in 2014-2015, when Ukraine had neither an army nor readiness" - Lukashenka 🤡
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#France and #Macron deserve a thread in the context of #Ukraine, #Russia and beyond.

- First, some historical context: France, just like #Britain, is a declining power. This process started with the loss of colonies after the World War 2.

🧵 ...

- A clear geopolitical shift happen with the Suez Crisis in 1956, which marked the emergence of #USA and #USSR as the world powers.

- #France also experienced a humiliating military defeat by #Germany during the World War 2. That shaped rather pretentious politics of ...

.. Charles de Gaulle, who tried to restore the French power with dissenting views vis-a-vis #Americans and #British (or the "collective Anglo-Saxons"). In 1966, #France withdrawn from the #NATO's military command.

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🧵#GERMANY/#Russia: Schließung von vier russischen Konsulaten. Die Bundesregierung entzieht vier russischen Konsulaten die Lizenz. Man reagiere damit auf die Entscheidung der Regierung in #Moskau, die Zahl deutscher Offizieller in #Russland auf 350 zu begrenzen. 1/x Generalkonsulat der Russisc...
2/x Ein weiteres Generalkonsulat sowie die russische Botschaft können demnach weiterbetrieben werden. Welches russische Konsulat weiter in Betrieb bleibt, war zunächst unklar. #Russland sei aufgefordert worden, "die Abwicklung der vier Generalkonsulate in
3/x der Bundesrepublik #Deutschland umgehend zu veranlassen und bis spätestens zum 31.12.2023 abzuschließen", hieß es.
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Why the mafia loves Germany

The massive international raids on the Italian 'Ndrangheta organization have again put the spotlight on #moneylaundering in Germany. Has organized crime found a haven in this country?

#Germany #Italy #OrganizedCrime…
"Coordinated raids against 'Ndrangheta organized crime syndicate across #Europe beginning of May attracted international headlines and generated explosive insider stories about the details of the investigation."
"What the raids didn't do was surprise seasoned mafia investigators." Image
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War on the Kinahan cartel: ‘Fear of financing terrorism spurred US to join forces with gardaí’

Former top garda John O’Driscoll reveals concerns that #moneylaundering by Daniel Kinahan’s gang could fund terror groups.

#Ireland #OrganizedCrime…
Daniel Kinahan: The cartel boss is believed to have moved to #Iran - a place where 'organised crime groups are going to launder money'
Kinahan cartel used tiny Iranian island to launder dirty money and for holidays

It is understood that Christy Kinahan discovered Kish when he was first travelling in the Gulf.

#KinahanCartel #Iran…
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#BavovnaToday 27.05.2023

BAVOVNA: Berdyansk (👀🔥), Shebekino (👀🔥), Nikolske, Mariupol, Volnovaha, Yasinuvata, Belgorod

(👀🔥) - Multiple bavovna

BOOST = Like, RT and Comments ❤️
Thank you for your support 😋
"#Ukraine 🇺🇦 officially asked #Germany 🇩🇪 for Taurus cruise missiles" – Spiegel

"#Canada 🇨🇦 will hand over almost 5,000 assault rifles and a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine" - the Canadian government
"The Armed Forces of Ukraine in Germany have begun training in the management of American Abrams tanks. 400 soldiers" — NYT

"Yesterday and today there are no active battles in Bakhmut - neither in the city, nor on the flanks," - Anna Malyar
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#Thread: 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗜𝗦𝗜𝗦 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺?
13,157 Europeans were among the approximately 30,000 foreign terrorist fighters from over 86 countries that joined the genocidal terrorist organisation #ISIS 2014-2016. Image
Most of them (almost 4000) come from just five countries: #France, the #UK, #Germany, #Belgium, and the #Netherlands. Image
in 2014 ISIS had controlled 1-3 of Iraqi and Syrian territory, including #Mosul the second largest city in #Iraq. Between 2014/2019, ISIS killed tens of thousands of Iraqis and Syrians. Millions have become #refugees.
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I wrote this to a #BJP supporter who wanted to know my political position. I am expanding and sharing it here.

1. BJP is as corrupt and inefficient as #Congress, but it gets a free pass because it is successfully advancing the cause of #Hindu #majoritarianism.

2. Examples are #Rammandir, #kashivishvanathtemple, #Article370, #TripleTalaq, #UCC, #CAANRC, #Cowslaughter bans, random #lynchings of Muslims, ban on #Azan in public, etc. A majority of Hindus in India support these, as they believe these will "put Muslims in their place."

3. In fact, #Corruption under the BJP is likely to be far worse than under Congress rule, because the media (which is now entirely under the control of Modi's corporate cronies like A&A) simply refuses to investigate any BJP corruption scams. Examples: #Vyapam, #Rafale...

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Good to see some movement from Germany.

However, the @bka doing business with #NSO Group is embarrassing.

German inertia is an avoidable lead weight on European regulatory efforts & ability to lead on the spyware crisis.

cc @GermanyDiplo & #BKA Präsident Holger Münch
Europe has a mercenary spyware crisis.

And #Germany @GermanyDiplohas has the opportunity to lead & participate in multilateral efforts.

Choosing instead to help keep notorious #spyware companies afloat is... puzzling.

#Überwachungssoftware. .… Image
Policymaking around commercial #spyware tends to be captured by security establishments.


Yet many countries have grown to recognize the harms to other sectors... and their governments' own security.

Something of which #Germany & @Bundeskanzler is acutely aware.
Read 4 tweets
Hello and welcome along again to another daily thread covering #Russia's war on #Ukraine.

Sunday is Day 452 since the full invasion began.
All the news coming up throughout the day and if you want to support me please click here:
Yesterday proved quite a busy news day and expanded to bring news of mass protests in both Serbia and Georgia.

Zelenskyy in Japan, Lavrov's family fleeing, the UN negotiating with war criminals, and bad news from Bakhmut. It's all here⬇️

This morning @ZelenskyyUa seemed to confirm that #Russia is in full control of #Bakhmut, saying "it's a pity, it's a tragedy, but for today Bakhmut is only in our hearts."

But later the #Ukraine President's Office later "clarified" they were still holding a position in the town.
Read 28 tweets
Today, the #Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs published an evaluation report of its contribution to the Resolute Support mission in #Afghanistan that *pulls no punches.*

I'll string together its primary findings in this THREAD. 1/n Image
(You can find the full report and an executive summary here:…) 2/N
Before the findings, a quick comment: the Dutch MFA produced this report b/c "Dutch contributions to missions under Article 100 of the Dutch Constitution are subject to an obligation to evaluate the deployment after it's been completed"

Wish the US had a similar requirement. 3/n
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The #SupremeCourtOfIndia has made some strong remarks about the abuse and weaponization of the #EnforcementDirectorate for political purposes.

It has also strongly censured a lower court judge in a case where bail was not given.

The Supreme Court reminded the lower court judge of a fundamental principle of #jurisprudence: bail is the norm, jail is the exception. The Court made the scathing observation that the said judge should go back to law school.

These are only two examples of how #BJP governments have been abusing power and bending the law to suit their desired ends.

One could point to the extrajudicial measure of "#bulldozer justice," which has been practiced by the BJP governments in #UP, #MP, and in #Delhi.

Read 14 tweets

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